buckeye Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Ha!!! The GFS isn't like any of the foreign models at all, even the UKMET/GGEM. They just phase extremely late, weird. Something has to give. the gfs has yet to present the epic bomb of the century solution where it screams a 966 thru western Ohio and displaces the poloar vortex to nashville. Maybe that one comes tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Ukie crushes us with BM track Euro is back to impossible scenario app runner. Tossed I'm sure, CT Blizz has this thing locked in just inside the benchmark for a KU event. Like white on rice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 the gfs has yet to present the epic bomb of the century solution where it screams a 966 thru western Ohio and displaces the poloar vortex to nashville. Maybe that one comes tonight. P10 on the 12z GEFS was a less extreme version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Like white on rice. lol yes because every storm that doesn't end up on the benchmark or is progged to ride the apps is a solution that goes against all known laws of physics.... until they don't end up on the benchmark or do ride the apps.... in that case they're forgotten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Like white on rice. Only reason I become gleeful when SNE misses a snowstorm is because of CT Blizz. He's an utter waste of bandwidth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm just going to toss the entire 18z GFS and GEFS suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm just going to toss the entire 18z GFS and GEFS suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 x100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 don't know if this was posted but LOT's morning AFD.. THE OTHER CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALSO SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP TO SUPPORT STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES NEAR GREENLAND AND EASTERN CANADA...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE WEST BASED NAO. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF THIS STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BUILDS HEIGHTS UP ENOUGH DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE RIDGING COULD LOCK IN WITH THE RIDGING ACROSS GREENLAND AND FORCE THIS SYSTEM TO LIFT NORTHWARD QUICKER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM HAVING MORE OF AN IMPACT LOCALLY. HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED NONETHELESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Keeps way too much confluence over Quebec. I consider it an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm just going to toss the entire 18z GFS and GEFS suite Are you going to toss the UKIE and GGEM too? I mean, the EURO is keeping this storm mildly interesting for us, but you have to admit it's out in left field. Right now, I estimate the chances that we smoke cirrus are somewhat better than getting a single inch from this. Not hugely better, but 60/40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Are you going to toss the UKIE and GGEM too? I mean, the EURO is keeping this storm mildly interesting for us, but you have to admit it's out in left field. Right now, I estimate the chances that we smoke cirrus are somewhat better than getting a single inch from this. Not hugely better, but 60/40. ^^ Going against the EURO and it's ensemble runs... I know there are a lot of questions remaining but saying the EURO is out in left field is a little overkill don't you think? Several runs of the GFS have looked similar. More encouraging is that the EURO ensemble runs agree with the operational. Not saying that continues, but when you see agreement between the op EURO and it's ensembles, that could be a sign that EURO is ahead of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well I remember back in dec 2007 the storm on the 16th was modeled to be an east coast storm then the models saw the SE ridge and pushed it farther west. Models are garbage right now plain and simple. If this storm misses us to the south I will not post here until I get over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well I remember back in dec 2007 the storm on the 16th was modeled to be an east coast storm then the models saw the SE ridge and pushed it farther west. Models are garbage right now plain and simple. If this storm misses us to the south I will not post here until I get over it. Keep us updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ^^ Going against the EURO and it's ensemble runs... I know there are a lot of questions remaining but saying the EURO is out in left field is a little overkill don't you think? Several runs of the GFS have looked similar. More encouraging is that the EURO ensemble runs agree with the operational. Not saying that continues, but when you see agreement between the op EURO and it's ensembles, that could be a sign that EURO is ahead of the game. EURO is the best. There can be no doubt. However, how it gets to phase the two streams via the spitting of the northern stream vortex over QC and the retrogression of the westerly piece is a low probability occurence. The other models are depicting a more typical evolution at H5. My conclusion is that when the model with the highest skill is doing something anomalous, there is still plenty of reason to remain doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well I remember back in dec 2007 the storm on the 16th was modeled to be an east coast storm then the models saw the SE ridge and pushed it farther west. Models are garbage right now plain and simple. If this storm misses us to the south I will not post here until I get over it. Different times my friend. Back then, the OP GFS actually had a cold bias. The "NW trend" is a thing of a bygone era. There's a great saying: when it drought, stay in doubt. Since we're in a snowfall drought.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Different times my friend. Back then, the OP GFS actually had a cold bias. The "NW trend" is a thing of a bygone era. There's a great saying: when it drought, stay in doubt. Since we're in a snowfall drought.... GFS still has a cold and progressive bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS still has a cold and progressive bias. I'm pretty sure I heard that was corrected (or at least reduced) with the upgrades the model underwent a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm pretty sure I heard that was corrected (or at least reduced) with the upgrades the model underwent a few years ago. Not a lot, if they did change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm pretty sure I heard that was corrected (or at least reduced) with the upgrades the model underwent a few years ago. Nah every time it is 'corrected' the bias stays in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Not a lot, if they did change it. Well, I don't have any empirical evidence to back me up, but I stand by my contention that the so called "NW trend" is not the sure thing it was maybe 5 years ago, whatever the causation may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This is why I don't buy the GFS now despite what the other global models show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 btw...this lends some credence to my claim. Dtk is our resident model guru, although I admit it's a little dated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well, I don't have any empirical evidence to back me up, but I stand by my contention that the so called "NW trend" is not the sure thing it was maybe 5 years ago, whatever the causation may be. Yeah I am not connecting the NW trend to the cold bias. I would connect it to the progressive bias however. If you are going to be overtly progressive in your output you will tend to have flatter waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This is why I don't buy the GFS now despite what the other global models show GGEM has a warm bias that tends to produce more wrapped up, NWrly tracking storms, especially beyond 96 hours. Yet it's more suppressed than the GFS. So what's your assessment of it? It's alright to want the storm the EURO is projecting but you're really setting yourself for disappointment by taking this tunnel vision approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It depends on the level and variable (i.e. there is generally a warm bias in the mid levels now, but an apparent near-neutral to slight cold bias at lower levels). I haven't parsed through everything so I hate to overgeneralize...all I can say is to expect something different than what has been documented in past seasons. This post right here epitomizes the progressive bias, warmer mid levels and colder lower levels leads to less volatile solutions, thus a progressive bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GGEM has a warm bias that tends to produce more wrapped up, NWrly tracking storms, especially beyond 96 hours. Yet it's more suppressed than the GFS. So what's your assessment of it? It's alright to want the storm the EURO is projecting but you're really setting yourself for disappointment by taking this tunnel vision approach. So what do you suggest we do... Toss the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So what do you suggest we do... Toss the EURO? Approach it with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GGEM has a warm bias that tends to produce more wrapped up, NWrly tracking storms, especially beyond 96 hours. Yet it's more suppressed than the GFS. So what's your assessment of it? It's alright to want the storm the EURO is projecting but you're really setting yourself for disappointment by taking this tunnel vision approach. The GGEM's solution is going to be wrong because it is grossly too strong with the first wave, it even phases it with the Northern stream piece of energy and flattens the height field behind it for the 2nd one not to get going until it is on the coast, Even then the GGEM still goes strong with the second piece, just late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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