buckeye Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 fyi Euro ens mean has pretty much the same track as the op. A little warmer initially but might just be the smoothing. also wrt the FIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 ECMWF ensembles actually very similar to the OP... if anything a touch north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 First wave really saves the day from a cutter.. I don't remember the models showing that lil pos until the last few days.. I'm pretty close to locking in 6-12" for CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 First wave really saves the day from a cutter.. I don't remember the models showing that lil pos until the last few days.. I'm pretty close to locking in 6-12" for CMH. one man's lil POS is another man's lil xmas miracle but you're right, without that we'd probably be looking at a rerun from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Snow water eq. FIM. Cold storm it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 FIM, lol.. No love for Detroit or St Louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm sure, CT Blizz has this thing locked in just inside the benchmark for a KU event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Henry M posted the 12z Euro snowfall map on Twitter. I could live with 100 miles further east, should it happen. 3" would seem like an epic blizzard at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I could live with 100 miles further east, should it happen. 3" would seem like an epic blizzard at this point. That snowfall map is the best I've seen in a long while for YYZ and the rest of S/W Ontario. Hopefully some winds will get whipping with the system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 FIM, lol.. No love for Detroit or St Louis F*** the FIM . I dont think my inch of snow will survive til Christmas (because, ya know, after being cloudy forever, now that we have a little snow on the ground the sun will come out tomorrow)...but I could handle a euro/euro ens/gfs ens for the 26/27th and Ill be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I could live with 100 miles further east west, should it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Some of the ECMWF ensembles go really nuts......completely the opposite of the last storm.... go nuts as in...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 F*** the FIM . I dont think my inch of snow will survive til Christmas (because, ya know, after being cloudy forever, now that we have a little snow on the ground the sun will come out tomorrow)...but I could handle a euro/euro ens/gfs ens for the 26/27th and Ill be fine. Yeah F the FIM... Its was funny even seeing it posted last storm. I hear you on the sun....hate it during winter. At least you got a nice taste of winter before Christmas.. So happy its going to look the part outside here although not as perfect as just west. Even if yours melts, you have the models on your side for an extended joyful Christmas. We really need this to hold for, SSC and the other snow starved Canuck's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wow! After two years, I've finally relocated the old Eastern wx crew! Got 1 " of wrap around snow last night. Cautiously optimistic about the 26th storm here in Se Indiana... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 ILN AFD . .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A N ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE ONSET TIMING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL IN QUESTION AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF WE SEE A WINTRY MIX MONDAY MORNING...OR AN ALL RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. COLDER AIR ON THE NORTH AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING ABOUT A CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TIME OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER IN THE EVENING AND LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT THE AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING THEIR FORECAST POSITIONS ON A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE FORECAST MODELS FOR THE EXACT LOW TRACK AND HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALOFT WITH THIS LOW. WENT WITH A ECMWF WEIGHTED CONSENSUS BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM RUN TO RUN AS WE ARE STILL 5 DAYS OUT. WENT LIKELY FOR POPS DURING THE MOST CONFIDENT TIME PERIOD THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD AFFECT OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 strong and moist............ tracks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Besides the Euro, the GFS not being super suppressed right now is encouraging. Anyone who has been around knows that the GFS tends to take any opportunity possible to underplay an inland primary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Besides the Euro, the GFS not being super suppressed right now is encouraging. Anyone who has been around knows that the GFS tends to take any opportunity possible to underplay an inland primary low. that's true...usually it's the gfs squashing things at this range. The fact it takes the primary into KY is my biggest reason to be concerned about a sig shift north. On a separate note....I'd bet tonight the ggem goes bonkers with some massive bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 ILX AFD in bored mode maybe?? LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN TUESDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE DYNAMIC AND HAVE MORE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO WORK WITH. MORE PCPN/SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THROWN BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR OVER IL THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WILL HAVE CHC POPS FOR SNOW FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THUR THROUGH THUR NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WINTER SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 ILX AFD in bored mode maybe?? lol maybe they just got their xmas bonuses.... membership to Jelly of the month club Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18z GFS is weaker and thus shifted south and east some. Same thing happened yesterday and the 0z brought it back. Guessing the same happens tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 ha 18z GFS will have everyone on the east coast jumping for joy.... turns this thing into a nor'easter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 18Z GFS is a miss for sure. It seems as though the 06Z/18Z runs have been further south and east. 00Z/12Z runs more northwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The GFS has been very inconsistent. The fact that the EURO ensembles agree with the op is encouraging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I actually like this run...it's the gfs's classically fcked up way of moving in the direction of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 strong and moist............ Sorry but... That's what she said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 My apologies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 DANGIT!!!! This last storm went too far north.... This storm looks like it may be too far south.... DANGIT!!! DANGIT!!! I will remain hopeful... but it seems even the winter weather is afraid to go into Detroit... just sayin' Complaint thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The GFS has been very inconsistent. The fact that the EURO ensembles agree with the op is encouraging... I think that is what is important for you guys. The inconsistency of the gfs is just garbage right now. I'd ride the euro with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Complaint thread. Moved - my apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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