Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The low keeps trending west. Remember when this was a weak coastal on the 18z GFS yesterday? It still looks OK for areas NW of the City, however. For central pa and upstate Ny yes...verbatim all of sne south of pike has bl issues. Plus the total lack of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18z slightly cooler and more west. Almost no hope here on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Westchester looks cold enough for snow on the GFS but there's not much QPF anyway. Might be flurries/drizzle especially if the boundary layer warms with the low west. I would think we see about 1" and then goes over to slop during the day. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Canadian sniffed this out well last night, started the trend. wow. What are you talking about? Canadian was a nice storm for us at 12z. Still had costal idea. 06z gfs started this trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18z slightly cooler and more west. Almost no hope here on LI. LI is almost definitely snow at 54 hours on the 18z GFS...particularly North Shore areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What are you talking about? Canadian was a nice storm for us at 12z. Still had costal idea. 06z gfs started this trend The canadian last night was west...........and warm. Go back and look at the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Canadian is likely too strong and amped up. Euro and now the gfs have the wave getting shredded, which kind of saves us from an all out rain storm. It gets shredded with slp heading well west, if there was a phase it would be really ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The canadian last night was west...........and warm. Go back and look at the thread. But a 12z it went back to snowier side. It set up nada, at 00z it was warm and amp up. Today the theme has been west and weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 My guess is that it gets shredded because since it's further north, it becomes too close to the confluence and the shortwave is thus in a poor environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't think there is any shredding on the NAM or GFS. The s/w looks pretty healthy, it's just a few hundred miles too far north. That means the upper level support does not overlap the area of favorable coastal surface low development... hence a weak SLP and light QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ignorance is bliss. Using the nam and srefs at this range is laughable. Euro gives us 2-4. Gfs went warm at 06z, it will be telling to see what it does in 30 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't think there is any shredding on the NAM or GFS. The s/w looks pretty healthy, it's just a few hundred miles too far north. That means the upper level support does not overlap the area of favorable coastal surface low development... hence a weak SLP and light QPF. This makes more sense. Though the shortwave itself looks a bit more broad and flat than it did in yesterday's runs, though it's still pretty potent and yields decent PVA. But yes, the best PVA is well north of where the best moisture source and surface development would be. Thus, the high PVA is not yielding much in the way of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ignorance is bliss. The midrange guidance has certainly moved toward yesterday's SREF mean. But it could be something of a fluke situation. The latter panels of the SREF are prone to extreme solutions. I know the suite has been upgraded, but for the years I've been watching them, when the end of the run disagrees significantly with the global consensus, it almos always moves towards the consensus round 48-60hrs out. I still think it looked fishy yesterday with a higher prob of rain than snow across the southern tier on NYS. But who knows, we're certainly moving in that direction. If the SREF can sniff out that kind of model trend that nothing else even suggests, the Euro and GFS should probably not be run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This makes more sense. Though the shortwave itself looks a bit more broad and flat than it did in yesterday's runs, though it's still pretty potent and yields decent PVA. But yes, the best PVA is well north of where the best moisture source and surface development would be. Thus, the high PVA is not yielding much in the way of QPF. You're right. It's definitely not as deep or sharp as it was occasionally modeled yesterday. But a less impressive s/w wouldn't spoil the party completely. I think our problem is mostly as you describe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 18z RGEM supports the general idea of sending a Xmas eve low toward western NY. It is a little deeper with the trof at 48hours, with lower heights near Tn and Ky but like other recent guidance, it consolidates the primary vortmax near the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Look at the difference in the modeled heights with the vortex to our north. This change is allowing the shortwave over the Ohio Valley to move farther north and supports the surface low development farther north as a result. Today: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f48.gif Last Night: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_0z/f66.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Upton tossing out some early Xmas cheer this evening.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Upton tossing out some early Xmas cheer this evening.... I would not throw in the towel yet for the NYC folks since this is modeled as a close call and there are two days before the event. Time will still tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 There's just no cold air to work with. We could have easily layed down a few inches if the airmass was just 5-8F colder. I would not throw in the towel yet for the NYC folks since this is modeled as a close call and there are two days before the event. Time will still tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I would not throw in the towel yet for the NYC folks since this is modeled as a close call and there are two days before the event. Time will still tell. Agreed. There's no reason to toss anything yet, especially the Xmas system. One at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Upton tossing out some early Xmas cheer this evening.... where on the nws site is that map? I can never find it. Each year I have to bookmark it again. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Anyone got word on the 0z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM a hair stronger with confluence to the north at 36 hrs. That should help us at least marginally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 where on the nws site is that map? I can never find it. Each year I have to bookmark it again. Thanks http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 And a tad colder as well NAM a hair stronger with confluence to the north at 36 hrs. That should help us at least marginally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 And a tad colder as well The energy is still so much farther north than the guidance was indicating it would be yesterday. Almost all guidance underwent some big changes in regards to the vortex to the north over Southeast Canada as well as the block in Central Canada...and that's having dramatic effects on the modeling of the two storms. The New Years storm still looks great though...luckily. I think that's our best percentage chance yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yep. 850 mb low over Chicago normally does not bode well for I 95 snow. This run looks different though...definitely less of a push north with precip...it may keep the SLF further south this run. WAA in this area thought will kill us with SE winds by afternoon. The energy is still so much farther north than the guidance was indicating it would be yesterday. Almost all guidance underwent some big changes in regards to the vortex to the north over Southeast Canada as well as the block in Central Canada...and that's having dramatic effects on the modeling of the two storms. The New Years storm still looks great though...luckily. I think that's our best percentage chance yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah this run is pretty bad...and now you have the ull retrograding over South-Central Canada ready to interact with the shortwave over the Central US that is trending deeper. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 That is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 H5 Trof goes neutral tilt too early...850 mb low also heading for Cincinnati. This is not our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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