Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hr 66 light snow for area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's a much drier run.. Screws sne and Central nj does the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 .10+ for metro area all snow on 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The Euro is very different than the GFS at day 3. Lacks mid-level energy in SENY and SNE, so the surface response is weak. In fact the entire mid-level height field is different, with the Euro showing the strongest vort in Ontario, whereas other guidance has a potent s/w crossing SENY. The Euro has shown a tendency over the past few days to maintain contact between this s/w and the vortex near Hudson Bay. At least the southeasterly flow would be much weaker in this scenario, which might protect the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The Euro is very different than the GFS at day 3. Lacks mid-level energy in SENY and SNE, so the surface response is weak. In fact the entire mid-level height field is different, with the Euro showing the strongest vort in Ontario, whereas other guidance has a potent s/w crossing SENY. The Euro has shown a tendency over the past few days to maintain contact between this s/w and the vortex near Hudson Bay. At least the southeasterly flow would be much weaker in this scenario, which might protect the boundary layer. By the time the bl warms qpf is over. Granted from the start its much colder then nam and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Models say a white Christmas will remain a dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Didn't the euro just show snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Didn't the euro just show snow? Yes light snow dusting to a inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Didn't the euro just show snow? Very little. It has 2 frames of .05" of precip. So maybe .15" total precip. And the last part of it has warm surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Very little. It has 2 frames of .05" of precip. So maybe .15" total precip. And the last part of it has warm surface temps. Hr 66 is better for him then NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I will gladly take waking up to an inch or 2 of snow for Rain later in the week, Very rare to wake up xmas morning and pack the car up and head out on Christmas day with fresh snow on the ground , I think u have to make that trade . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I will gladly take waking up to an inch or 2 of snow for Rain later in the week, Very rare to wake up xmas morning and pack the car up and head out on Christmas day with fresh snow on the ground , I think u have to make that trade . Would you trade Boxing Day for an inch of snow one day earlier? No way no how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Would you trade Boxing Day for an inch of snow one day earlier? No way no how. Well if that was a possiblity then sure , I dont think theres been any scenerio to suggest thats ever been progged I mean you can fiantasize about stuff like that , but then again what you do in your spare time is non of my biz ( jk ) dude, thats not on the table . The best case mayb a scenerio is where it snows - rains at its height changes back over and someone gets 6 inches , now that possible 2 ft -( boxing day storm ) not this storm . My point was . I will take a few inches xmas morning and if lose round 2 - It will still be nice to see snow on the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Would you trade Boxing Day for an inch of snow one day earlier? No way no how. All kidding aside - I thnk next weeks storm ends up developing over the coast of VA . so im not buying the monsoon scenerio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm in NJ for Christmas...would be great to see some snow while I'm here. Knowing Northern Virginia/DC, it'll probably be the only snow I see all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Seems like best case scenario for much of NJ and NYC area would be 1-2"....most likely would be rain mixed with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Seems like best case scenario for much of NJ and NYC area would be 1-2"....most likely would be rain mixed with snow That doesn't seem like the best case scenario. That seems like what's actually going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The GEFS don't look too terrible, esp just north and west of the City. A handful of members are colder and/or wetter than the op. A few look weaker, like the Euro, but none are really strong or warm. The mean suggests the City is right on the border of a brief period of non accumulating snow and a few inches. It really could go either way. And despite the Euro depiction, I still don't believe a stronger low is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The GEFS don't look too terrible, esp just north and west of the City. A handful of members are colder and/or wetter than the op. A few look weaker, like the Euro, but none are really strong or warm. The mean suggests the City is right on the border of a brief period of non accumulating snow and a few inches. It really could go either way. And despite the Euro depiction, I still don't believe a stronger low is off the table. With the euro being decently colder (at least away from the coast), it seems like it has room to amp up a bit and not wash everyone away, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Seems like best case scenario for much of NJ and NYC area would be 1-2"....most likely would be rain mixed with snow It's impossible to quantify the true best case scenario, because no matter what you come up with, you could always imagine something slightly better. But I would guess the higher end potential with this storm in and around the City is something like 4" or 5" of snow. The elevated interior has a much better shot of reaching this threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 With the euro being decently colder (at least away from the coast), it seems like it has room to amp up a bit and not wash everyone away, no? I think people use the term "amp" too loosely. A higher amplitude s/w trof would affect the placement and strength of the primary and/or secondary surface lows. But the trof itself could be further north or south, with different placement of vorticity, and different degrees of tilt. There are too many moving parts for a simple connection between "amped" and rain vs. snow. The Euro is cooler because it doesn't have much of a mid-level low in our area, and thus a weaker SLP and WAA out ahead. The vortmax and s/w energy wrap up to our northwest. If this feature amped up, I don't believe it would help us. I think we need a separate s/w and pocket of vorticity to dig further south. A higher amplitude trof might lead to a stronger SLP, but the mid-level lows need to go near or just under us to stay mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Thanks for the in depth explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro Ensembles are a little stronger with the XMAS vort as well as being a little colder for the 27-28th system (although still a mix with rain as predominant). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12Z RGEM ensembles valid hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I haven't seen so much twisting and turning since Chubby Checker in 1960...We need cold air for snow...The temperature will be marginal at best.....It's forecasted to be in the mid 20's tonight in central Florida...Colder than here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Nice run? Surface temps are not below freezing. I think it snows 1/2 inch from front end WAA. This is certainly not what we were looking at just 24 Hr ago. You have done very well with this sir, for whatever reason people look at 850s, even on the euro the BL is torched, nam lol forget about it. On to January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hr 54 on gfs looks a lot like the euro. Light snow to start then rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hr 54 on gfs looks a lot like the euro. Light snow to start then rain The low keeps trending west. Remember when this was a weak coastal on the 18z GFS yesterday? It still looks OK for areas NW of the City, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Canadian sniffed this out well last night, started the trend. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Canadian sniffed this out well last night, started the trend. wow. Canadian is likely too strong and amped up. Euro and now the gfs have the wave getting shredded, which kind of saves us from an all out rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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