Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Only about 1 in every 5 SWFEs is all snow for NYC/LI and I honestly cannot even recall the last one that was all snow...2 others are usually snow to sleet to rain and the other 2 are all rain. This one is going to fall somewhere in those last 4 options most likely, if we had a stronger high in place or a colder air mass I'd feel better about getting more snow, I hope the confluence prevents us from seeing a typical sw flow track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The euro and its ens mean are good for this event and have trended colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The euro and its ens mean are good for this event and have trended colder It's the coldest they have been. Euro was the first to go so amp up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Only about 1 in every 5 SWFEs is all snow for NYC/LI and I honestly cannot even recall the last one that was all snow...2 others are usually snow to sleet to rain and the other 2 are all rain. This one is going to fall somewhere in those last 4 options most likely, if we had a stronger high in place or a colder air mass I'd feel better about getting more snow, I think I wrote something about a month ago how winter first has to come to Berkshire and Litchfield counties before it can hope to establish a foothold in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Using the nam and srefs at this range is laughable. Euro gives us 2-4. Gfs went warm at 06z, it will be telling to see what it does in 30 min from reading this board, you would think we are in line for a 2-4 inch storm, from reading Mt Holly disco all they talk about is rain. Think people getting a little too gung ho over the models and now they are trending away anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 from reading this board, you would think we are in line for a 2-4 inch storm, from reading Mt Holly disco all they talk about is rain. Think people getting a little too gung ho over the models and now they are trending away anyhow this isnt a "Mt Holly" subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I recall many SWFE occuring as Highs are leaving the area , this time it may be a case where low level cold air is filtering in as the low comes north . 2 things i like , It will occur at night and with almost no wind so I think thats more promising for more snowier scenerio . I am not dicounting the SREF .I just like to use them closer in . Lets see if the 12 GFS holds serve . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I recall many SWFE occuring as Highs are leaving the area , this time it may be a case where low level cold air is filtering in as the low comes north . 2 things i like , It will occur at night and with almost no wind so I think thats more promising for more snowier scenerio . I am not dicounting the SREF .I just like to use them closer in . Lets see if the 12 GFS holds serve . Holding serve would be bad as 6z GFS looked warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Def stronger confluence and colder at hr 48, it's also not as amp up as 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 this isnt a "Mt Holly" subforum. whether it is or not they are not bullish on this storm...and there are borderline areas of Mt Holly/Upton that generally have the same weather conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 whether it is or not they are not bullish on this storm...and there are borderline areas of Mt Holly/Upton that generally have the same weather conditions using "mt holly says rain" as an argument that this subforum is incorrect in discussing snow is flat out trolling. go back into your hole until spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hr 60 snow Ttn north. Def a colder run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hr 60 snow Ttn north. Def a colder run Appreciate the pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hr 63 still light snow. 850's to 1-95 and surface right outside city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hr 69 we prob end as light mix. Very nice run. Jackpot looks to be ct and nnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 850s seemed colder, but did the surface warm a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Nice run? Surface temps are not below freezing. I think it snows 1/2 inch from front end WAA. This is certainly not what we were looking at just 24 Hr ago. Hr 69 we prob end as light mix. Very nice run. Jackpot looks to be ct and nnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 using "mt holly says rain" as an argument that this subforum is incorrect in discussing snow is flat out trolling. go back into your hole until spring. Subforum protocol issues aside, factually--the original statement is inaccurate. Latest AFD from Mt. Holly: "FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW CONTS FOR THIS PERIOD AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. FOR MONDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO TRACK EWD AND PASS THROUGH DELMARVA EARLY XMAS MORN. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA PROBABLY STARTING LATE MONDAY AFTN. PCPN TYPE IS SMWHT UNCERTAIN...ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE COASTAL NJ AND SRN DE WILL BE TOO WARM OVERNIGHT FOR ANY TYPE BUT RAIN. HWVR FARTHER N COULD SEE A MIX OF PCPN...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY WELL N AND W OF PHL. PCPN SHOULD END OVER MOST AREAS BY MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY PLEASANT CONDS FOR THE SEASON. HWVR THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER MORE POWERFUL STORM WINDS UP AND MOVES NEWD OUT OF THE LOWER MS VLY TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE OF COURSE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AT THIS RANGE...HWVR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING RAIN OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WITH A WINTRY MIX FURTHER N. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK LOW LOCATION WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS FARTHER N...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN IN THE NRN MID ATLANTIC. THE WEEK IS FCST TO END WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WX BUT THEN YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM IS INDCD FOR NEXT WEEKEND." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Nice run? Surface temps are not below freezing. I think it snows 1/2 inch from front end WAA. This is certainly not what we were looking at just 24 Hr ago. It's colder then the 06z run and you would not think nnj and ct would not do well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 850s seemed colder, but did the surface warm a bit? They ok 30 by you - 34 ish in and around city , Algo always paints coastline as gasbag . looks 2- 3 type event . Cant ask for anything more on Christmas morning , just enough to feel like Christmas but doesnt wreck havoc on travel . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What is "do well"? Do I think Warren/Sussex counties see more snow? Definitely. But I don't think 6 inch lollipops, which were being shown on some NWP when the SLP was heading east over DOV instead of through C PA. This is WAA snow for the most part...a good rule of thumb in these neck of the woods is to cut the snowfall in half during these events. So say....0.2 translates to 1 in. snow. It's colder then the 06z run and you would not think nnj and ct would not do well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What is "do well"? Do I think Warren/Sussex counties see more snow? Definitely. But I don't think 6 inch lollipops, which were being shown on some NWP when the SLP was heading east over DOV instead of through C PA. This is WAA snow for the most part...a good rule of thumb in these neck of the woods is to cut the snowfall in half during these events. So say....0.2 translates to 1 in. snow. For now the warming on this run as stop. It really looks nothing like 00z euro. Hopefully it trends better for us. As the confluence will allow this only to get so far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What is "do well"? Do I think Warren/Sussex counties see more snow? Definitely. But I don't think 6 inch lollipops, which were being shown on some NWP when the SLP was heading east over DOV instead of through C PA. This is WAA snow for the most part...a good rule of thumb in these neck of the woods is to cut the snowfall in half during these events. So say....0.2 translates to 1 in. snow. for the most part this has always looked like a 1-3 inch storm(inland areas of nj) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ideally we'd like the 500mb and 700mb to track just south of NYC. Unfortunately the NAM and GFS are now moving them through to the north. That favors ENY and interior SNE. The GFS forecast soundings are still cold enough for mostly snow ahead of the s/w approach, especially just north and west of the City. The boundary layer warms with southeasterly flow, but precipitation is tapering off at that point. With such a compact s/w, a small modeled change could significantly shift the band of snow. When previous runs were increasing the amplitude of the trof and digging it further south, I thought that looked good for southern areas like EPA and NJ. But now with a smaller amplitude trof (although fairly potent), I think that typically ends up favoring the southern tier of NY up through interior ENY. Still a few days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 whether it is or not they are not bullish on this storm...and there are borderline areas of Mt Holly/Upton that generally have the same weather conditions Now that they're not bullish we're definitely get snow...lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The UKMET goes crazy on QPF for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Good crazy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Good crazy? Probably goes to rain eventually but starts as snow...the GEM looks very northwest yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 the ukmet looks colder than the gfs and the canadian is much colder than the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hr 60 850's are in central va and surface is over Ttn on 12z euro.. Much colder then nam and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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