eduggs Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GEFS are still pretty dry. Mean SLP track is maybe a hair further north than 12z, but mean QPF is still around .1 - .15. Not a bad place to be at this point, especially considering that the GEFS are the driest and furthest south of the midrange guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GEFS are still pretty dry. Mean SLP track is maybe a hair further north than 12z, but mean QPF is still around .1 - .15. Not a bad place to be at this point, especially considering that the GEFS are the driest and furthest south of the midrange guidance. The whole setup is strange as I posted in the NE forum, the system not dampening as it tracks across the OH Valley with such a strong low in SE Canada is very odd. Its possible still the GFS has the best idea on this storm being flatter but at the same time all it takes is a well timed vort spoke to drop out of the Canada low and you could get some sort of partial phase with it and the GGEM idea could be right or even not strong enough! Looking back at past storms I cannot find anything that resembles this exactly, 3/19/92 is somewhat close except that the disturbance had some help from a southern stream wave early but there was also a strong low in SE Canada that time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This could be a first for many of us - anybody living in the immediate NYC Metro area ever remember waking up to an accumulating falling snow on Christmas Morning ( more then an inch or 2 ) and having to go out and shovel it ?? 2002 came close but that was later in the day when the rain changed to snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This could be a first for many of us - anybody living in the immediate NYC Metro area ever remember waking up to an accumulating falling snow on Christmas Morning ( more then an inch or 2 ) and having to go out and shovel it ?? 2002 came close but that was later in the day when the rain changed to snow . great point. exciting times next 2-3 wks. 2003 storm was near and dear to my heart, but we had to pull a rabbit out of the hat. i remember shoveling that heavy, back-breaking snow after a whole day of rain. anyone else remember waking up to a fresh covering? guess i'm too young (31) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 great point. exciting times next 2-3 wks. 2003 storm was near and dear to my heart, but we had to pull a rabbit out of the hat. i remember shoveling that heavy, back-breaking snow after a whole day of rain. anyone else remember waking up to a fresh covering? guess i'm too young (31) I'm 26 and remember a dusting the morning of Christmas 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm 26 and remember a dusting the morning of Christmas 95. I'm 57 and never remember shoveling snow on Christmas Morning - here is historical link for Christmas at Upton - the 1969 snow was late in the day or evening http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/holidays/top5christmas.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm 57 and never remember shoveling snow on Christmas Morning - here is historical link for Christmas at Upton - the 1969 snow was late in the day or evening http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/holidays/top5christmas.htm I was just making the claim that I have seen snow falling xmass morning. I believe that year it was more of a scattered thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm 57 and never remember shoveling snow on Christmas Morning - here is historical link for Christmas at Upton - the 1969 snow was late in the day or evening http://www.erh.noaa....p5christmas.htm Really seems remarkably non-snowy for late December...that link shows only six occurances of 2" or more in the last 130+ years. Makes the 18z GFS solution all the more special. Hope it holds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I was just making the claim that I have seen snow falling xmass morning. I believe that year it was more of a scattered thing I remember that I bit in Piscataway I think. I would have to go back and check my old calendars where I mark snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I remember that I bit in Piscataway I think. I would have to go back and check my old calendars where I mark snowfalls. It happen a couple of times that week. Christmas was the biggest surprise. I remember Janice huff talking about it on ch 4 news xmass night. She was not a main weather women yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Christmas day stats for Central Park...est max snow depth came at any time of the day...1912 had 11" 7am while 1883 7"...5" fell during the day... Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. precipitation...snowfall.....est. max snow depth... 64 in 1982.....13 in 1983.....50 in 1979....-1 in 1980.....1.30" in 2002.....7.0" in 1909........12" in 1883 64 in 1889.....14 in 1872.....49 in 1964.....4 in 1872.....1.26" in 1945.....6.5" in 1902........11" in 1912 62 in 1940.....20 in 1878.....48 in 1987.....4 in 1983.....0.87" in 1979.....5.0" in 1883..........7" in 1966 61 in 1979.....20 in 1980.....47 in 1965...11 in 1914.............................5.0" in 2002..........7" in 1909 60 in 1964.....22 in 1958.....47 in 1932...12 in 1958.............................3.0" in 1904..........6" in 1948 59 in 1965.....23 in 1968.....46 in 1895...13 in 1968.............................2.1" in 1969..........6" in 1902 1963 in Brooklyn... http://www.nycsubway...perl/show?71093 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 KHPN 4.2" by Christmas morning. Don't think I've ever seen that in my life. 121225/0300Z 81 04006KT 31.0F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 121225/0600Z 84 02010KT 28.1F SNOW 14:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.191 14:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 121225/0900Z 87 35008KT 27.4F SNOW 10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 12:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm 57 and never remember shoveling snow on Christmas Morning - here is historical link for Christmas at Upton - the 1969 snow was late in the day or evening http://www.erh.noaa....p5christmas.htm there's a mistake on the lows for Christmas...It has 1958 twice...4 degrees and 12...It was 12 in 1958... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 KHPN 4.2" by Christmas morning. Don't think I've ever seen that in my life. 121225/0300Z 81 04006KT 31.0F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 121225/0600Z 84 02010KT 28.1F SNOW 14:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.191 14:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 121225/0900Z 87 35008KT 27.4F SNOW 10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126 12:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0 Would be the first time in a long time on Xmas eve. 2002 had snow Xmas morning in the far northern and western suburbs. Snow line crashed southeastward during the day and we had blizzard like conditions by evening. But I cannot remember early morning Xmas snow dating back at least to the early 1980s. This afternoon's models, though not in complete agreement, generally agree on a good chance for a few inches of snow. But we are still several days out and there is room for significant model changes. I could see this thing going flat and sliding to our south. I could also see it wrapping up like the GGEM, or moreso, and becoming a pretty big deal. And what this wave does could affect the stronger trough behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think since 1950 there are only three years that snow fell midnight Christmas eve...2002...1993...1966...2002 started as snow around midnight then changed to sleet and rain before dawn...1993 had some very light snow falling at midnight...1966 snow was tapering off around midnight but continued for a few hours before ending before 3am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAM FWIW at the end of its range stays flat, there were some juicier SREFs though at 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAM FWIW at the end of its range stays flat, there were some juicier SREFs though at 21Z. And still manages to produce around a tenth of mostly snow to much of the region. This is the sort of run I'd expect to see 3 days before a light-moderate storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 RGEM is very sharp over SD/NE at 48 hours with the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 RGEM is very sharp over SD/NE at 48 hours with the shortwave. It supports this afternoon's GGEM run. In fact it might be a little sharper even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS is looking good for the Christmas Event. Looking more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hr 72 00z gfs light snow for area Hr 75 light snow continues Hr 78 light snow on going, this run looks a bit drier then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hr 84 ending .25+ for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Potent little s/w. Slight trend continues for a stronger s/w digging further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The shortwave is actually much more robust this run than on the 18z. Seemed to make a trend toward the GGEM aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The shortwave is actually much more robust this run than on the 18z. Seemed to make a trend toward the GGEM aloft. Totally agree. QPF didn't increase noticably but this run seems to consolidate the multi-model trend towards a more significant sytem for Xmas eve... with a more widespread impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks to end up with everyone right around .4 to .5 qpf all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 SV snow maps have 2-4 for area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks like a really fun weekend of model watching upcoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS is slightly warmer at the surface. Only saving grace is that it falls overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS is slightly warmer at the surface. Only saving grace is that it falls overnight. This is going to be plenty cold. Temps aren't an issue for the Christmas storm; they're an issue for the system on the 27th only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.