SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 NAM looks well north with the Christmas low, much higher heights and 850s than the GFS. GFS looks alone here. Wand NWsuburbs stand a chance, but most signs point to city, east and south as a wet Christmas morning and not white. The NAM is garbage that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The NAM is garbage that far out. The NAM is almost always west/north/warm with storms at the end of its range. Its actually not anywhere near as amped as I thought it would be at 84 hours. I expected it to be much more north and wetter than it ultimately is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 And the latest NAM isn't even that far north. It's warmer than the gfs but I'm thinking it trends colder over time as their is a lot of confluence to the north that makes it more likely to go further south and be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Like trying to stop the wind Ed..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Perhaps the city and SE will have a warmer BL, but using the 84 hour NAM as reasoning for rain when most guidance, including the Euro, is relatively suppressed with the wave is poor reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 There looks to be solid agreement between the GFS, Euro, and GGEM. I would definitely discount the NAM...for now. The rest of the 12z suite will be telling, and enjoyable to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The low goes slightly more south on this run of the GFS. It goes off SNJ instead of CNJ.GFS is dry though. Just some light snow but hey, that's better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Gfs way south for xmass day. Does throw some light stuff back at hr 93. Little inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I don't know whether or not this solution bodes well for the Thursday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The GFS is fine for christmas morning . 10 - .25 QPF 850s minus 2 Surface temps 33-34 around the city . and 30 just outside the city . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS is close and borderline for the 26-27 event. The surface low actually redevelops off the M/A coast but there's a strong mid level warm air advection push. We can work with this. See it gets into the Tenn Vallley it see that High sitting near the lakes and jogs and reforms east ,so i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Not bad 3.6" of snow on the 12z GFS at KMMU 121225/0300Z 99 08005KT 31.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 121225/0600Z 102 03010KT 30.8F SNOW 13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129 13:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0 121225/0900Z 105 02011KT 29.4F SNOW 12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127 12:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 100| 0| 0 121225/1200Z 108 36009KT 27.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 11:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 121225/1500Z 111 36007KT 30.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006 11:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.33 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Any word on the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I only saw the UKMET through 72 hours but it looks as amplified at 500mb over the Plains as the GGEM did at 72 for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 So what's the consensus for the Xmas storm, 1-3" type deal I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Precip into NYC at 90 for Christmas on the Euro. Cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Precip into NYC at 90 for Christmas on the Euro. Cold enough for snow. How much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Knyc TUE 00Z 25-DEC 0.9 0.3 1018 70 28 0.00 554 539 TUE 06Z 25-DEC 3.6 -1.6 1013 90 98 0.18 550 540 TUE 12Z 25-DEC 4.3 -0.3 1010 95 38 0.18 548 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Knyc TUE 00Z 25-DEC 0.9 0.3 1018 70 28 0.00 554 539 TUE 06Z 25-DEC 3.6 -1.6 1013 90 98 0.18 550 540 TUE 12Z 25-DEC 4.3 -0.3 1010 95 38 0.18 548 540 Do you have that for Freehold? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 How much? .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Knyc TUE 00Z 25-DEC 0.9 0.3 1018 70 28 0.00 554 539 TUE 06Z 25-DEC 3.6 -1.6 1013 90 98 0.18 550 540 TUE 12Z 25-DEC 4.3 -0.3 1010 95 38 0.18 548 540 Yikes at the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Do you have that for Freehold? Rossi No, the nearest Stations (that i know of) are belmar or lakehurst..Surface is warm at both locations..(1-6c lakehurst, 3-7c belmar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Knyc TUE 00Z 25-DEC 0.9 0.3 1018 70 28 0.00 554 539 TUE 06Z 25-DEC 3.6 -1.6 1013 90 98 0.18 550 540 TUE 12Z 25-DEC 4.3 -0.3 1010 95 38 0.18 548 540 how is this cold enough for snow? Is that first column temps in C? 4.3??? Thats about 40 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Yikes at the surface temps. but wait - snow88 says, "cold enough for snow"...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Hr 96 on the Euro, 850 freezing line right through NYC as the surface low sits right off the Jersey shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Hr 96 on the Euro, 850 freezing line right through NYC as the surface low sits right off the Jersey shore Most if not all our preciep falls before hour 90. At that time 850's are below Phl and 32 line rides I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Most if not all our preciep falls before hour 90. At that time 850's are below Phl and 32 line rides I-80 Assuming 2m temps are correct, that's rain for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Assuming 2m temps are correct, that's rain for the metro area How? At hour 84, NYC is 32 degrees. At hour 90, when 95% of the precip has fallen, the 850 line is well south of LI and the 32 degree line is a little north. The precip lightens and the surface temps go to 34 degrees. Wunderground maps, which show in between, hour 87, has surface temps at 31-33 degrees while the heaviest precip is falling for NYC and Northern Queens, all of the Bronx, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 How? At hour 84, NYC is 32 degrees. At hour 90, when 95% of the precip has fallen, the 850 line is well south of LI and the 32 degree line is a little north. The precip lightens and the surface temps go to 34 degrees. Wunderground maps, which show in between, hour 87, has surface temps at 31-33 degrees while the heaviest precip is falling for NYC and Northern Queens, all of the Bronx, etc. Look at soundings Mohawk posted...not a snow sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 ag3 knows his weather. Thanks for your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.