PB GFI Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 awful run by euro- thats rain on xmas verbatim , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z gfs says congrats on the 2-4 xmass day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Bing Crosby is warming up... 18z gfs says congrats on the 2-4 xmass day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 18z actually gives a swath of 1-3 inches from PHL to NYC. Yeah, this is a weenie run for the Christmas wave. Little if any BL issues NW of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Bing Crosby is warming up... Lmao...would be awesome if it happen. Hopefully euro at 00z keeps the confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I actually think the 18Z GFS is more realistic at this point for the Christmas wave. 12Z GFS awkwardly "pinched off" a piece of the anticyclone over southern Canada at 108 h. This extension of the cold, dry dome of high pressure would bring -20C dewpoint depressions at 850 mb to NYC before the snow started falling. With the low levels so dry, at least the first half of the storm falls as virga with very little accumulation. 18Z GFS doesn't have such an awkward extension of the anticyclone, has less extreme dewpoint depressions, and therefore allows precip to begin accumulating a bit earlier. I think the chances of some accumulating snowfall are quite good, especially a bit inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 I actually think the 18Z GFS is more realistic at this point for the Christmas wave. 12Z GFS awkwardly "pinched off" a piece of the anticyclone over southern Canada at 108 h. This extension of the cold, dry dome of high pressure would bring -20C dewpoint depressions at 850 mb to NYC before the snow started falling. With the low levels so dry, at least the first half of the storm falls as virga with very little accumulation. 18Z GFS doesn't have such an awkward extension of the anticyclone, has less extreme dewpoint depressions, and therefore allows precip to begin accumulating a bit earlier. I think the chances of some accumulating snowfall are quite good, especially a bit inland. Thanks for your confidence. Did you grow up in NYC? Just curious since I see you are in Miami FL now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Light over running coming in Xmass morning..low in central Ohio Hr 120 low over cleveland Yes, an overrunning event. AMS Glossary: Overrunning The process whereby less dense air displaces more dense air by flowing up and over the denser air; occurs along a warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Think someone may have posted this already but not sure if it was in this thread sorry if it was.... Upton took out the chance of snow for Christmas and has rain wed night with rising temps then rain/snow mix thurs this is for long island!!! Yikes, I think that might have been a mistake or I hope it is a mistake. Anyway, four days out and models change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Thanks for your confidence. Did you grow up in NYC? Just curious since I see you are in Miami FL now! Grew up in Albany actually, and will be in town next week. Hoping we cash in on the post-Christmas threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Grew up in Albany actually, and will be in town next week. Hoping we cash in on the post-Christmas threat! Thanks, good luck to all of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Thanks, good luck to all of us! Yes, good luck to you too! With the Euro too far west and the GFS OTS, I think you're right where you want to be 6 days out for the second threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Think someone may have posted this already but not sure if it was in this thread sorry if it was.... Upton took out the chance of snow for Christmas and has rain wed night with rising temps then rain/snow mix thurs this is for long island!!! Dude, relax, wow. The point and click for 5 days out cannot be taken verbatim. The fact that there is snow in there at all means upton smells potential...this is GOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Think someone may have posted this already but not sure if it was in this thread sorry if it was.... Upton took out the chance of snow for Christmas and has rain wed night with rising temps then rain/snow mix thurs this is for long island!!! This is the last time i'm going to ask you. Keep this crap in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Think someone may have posted this already but not sure if it was in this thread sorry if it was.... Upton took out the chance of snow for Christmas and has rain wed night with rising temps then rain/snow mix thurs this is for long island!!! I guess for the 8 thousandth time, you still haven't learned that the point forecast will change 800 times from now till then. And you live on LI, you shouldn't be expecting snow in this pattern, you need a perfect track. Let alone flying off the handle about it, post after post, like a moron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Dude, relax, wow. The point and click for 5 days out cannot be taken verbatim. The fact that there is snow in there at all means upton smells potential...this is GOOD Bingo! 5 day point and click is irrelevant even Upton will tell you that point and click is a 48 hour or less forecast. They would need a team 10 times the size they have to be half way accurate to the mile 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm surprised no one's commenting on the 00z GFS! Solid 3-5" in the area for Christmas, especially north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 00Z GFS maintains light snow potential for KNYC early on 12/25/12. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm surprised no one's commenting on the 00z GFS! Solid 3-5" in the area for Christmas, especially north and west. Too early to get excited about accumulations but the GFS is sticking to its guns as the attached graphic shows. Looks to be cold enough with the light snow with commencement during the night as per the 18Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Too early to get excited about accumulations but the GFS is sticking to its guns as the attached graphic shows. Looks to be cold enough with the light snow with commencement during the night as per the 18Z run. thats a solid 1-3 or 2-4 inches across the region depending upon your location - BUT Upton does not even have any precip in the forecast ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 thats a solid 1-3 or 2-4 inches across the region depending upon your location - BUT Upton does not even have any precip in the forecast ............ They mentioned the possibility of light snow in their AFDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 And you live on LI, you shouldn't be expecting snow in this pattern, you need a perfect track. Care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Any word on the GGEM? I'm mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Any word on the GGEM? I'm mobile. Looks like a 2-4 inches quick hitter inland, probably rain at the coast. 850 line is right over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Care to elaborate? Like trying to stop the wind Ed..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 euro looks like a nice small snow event just inland 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 06z gfs looks to be 1-2 Xmas day. Seems it cut back on qpf from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 SST'S average or above hopefully it doesn't effect our environment on the coast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 upton and mt holly dont seem to interested in it at the current time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Upton.. A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 21/00Z GFS AND ECMWF CAME IN WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO WITH A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING POPS. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND...WILL HAVE TO INCREASE POPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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