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I'm dreaming of a White Christmas!


WeatherFox

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I actually think the 18Z GFS is more realistic at this point for the Christmas wave. 12Z GFS awkwardly "pinched off" a piece of the anticyclone over southern Canada at 108 h. This extension of the cold, dry dome of high pressure would bring -20C dewpoint depressions at 850 mb to NYC before the snow started falling. With the low levels so dry, at least the first half of the storm falls as virga with very little accumulation.

18Z GFS doesn't have such an awkward extension of the anticyclone, has less extreme dewpoint depressions, and therefore allows precip to begin accumulating a bit earlier. I think the chances of some accumulating snowfall are quite good, especially a bit inland.

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I actually think the 18Z GFS is more realistic at this point for the Christmas wave. 12Z GFS awkwardly "pinched off" a piece of the anticyclone over southern Canada at 108 h. This extension of the cold, dry dome of high pressure would bring -20C dewpoint depressions at 850 mb to NYC before the snow started falling. With the low levels so dry, at least the first half of the storm falls as virga with very little accumulation.

18Z GFS doesn't have such an awkward extension of the anticyclone, has less extreme dewpoint depressions, and therefore allows precip to begin accumulating a bit earlier. I think the chances of some accumulating snowfall are quite good, especially a bit inland.

Thanks for your confidence. Did you grow up in NYC? Just curious since I see you are in Miami FL now!

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Think someone may have posted this already but not sure if it was in this thread sorry if it was.... Upton took out the chance of snow for Christmas and has rain wed night with rising temps then rain/snow mix thurs this is for long island!!!

Yikes, I think that might have been a mistake or I hope it is a mistake. Anyway, four days out and models change..

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Think someone may have posted this already but not sure if it was in this thread sorry if it was.... Upton took out the chance of snow for Christmas and has rain wed night with rising temps then rain/snow mix thurs this is for long island!!!

Dude, relax, wow.

The point and click for 5 days out cannot be taken verbatim.

The fact that there is snow in there at all means upton smells potential...this is GOOD

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Think someone may have posted this already but not sure if it was in this thread sorry if it was.... Upton took out the chance of snow for Christmas and has rain wed night with rising temps then rain/snow mix thurs this is for long island!!!

This is the last time i'm going to ask you. Keep this crap in the banter thread.

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Think someone may have posted this already but not sure if it was in this thread sorry if it was.... Upton took out the chance of snow for Christmas and has rain wed night with rising temps then rain/snow mix thurs this is for long island!!!

I guess for the 8 thousandth time, you still haven't learned that the point forecast will change 800 times from now till then. And you live on LI, you shouldn't be expecting snow in this pattern, you need a perfect track. Let alone flying off the handle about it, post after post, like a moron.

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Dude, relax, wow.

The point and click for 5 days out cannot be taken verbatim.

The fact that there is snow in there at all means upton smells potential...this is GOOD

Bingo! 5 day point and click is irrelevant even Upton will tell you that point and click is a 48 hour or less forecast. They would need a team 10 times the size they have to be half way accurate to the mile 5 days out.

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I'm surprised no one's commenting on the 00z GFS! Solid 3-5" in the area for Christmas, especially north and west.

Too early to get excited about accumulations but the GFS is sticking to its guns as the attached graphic shows. Looks to be cold enough with the light snow with commencement during the night as per the 18Z run.

post-1009-0-33264100-1356063557_thumb.gi

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Too early to get excited about accumulations but the GFS is sticking to its guns as the attached graphic shows. Looks to be cold enough with the light snow with commencement during the night as per the 18Z run.

thats a solid 1-3 or 2-4 inches across the region depending upon your location - BUT Upton does not even have any precip in the forecast ............

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Upton..

A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS AND MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE 21/00Z GFS AND ECMWF CAME IN WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW AND

WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO WITH A BIT MORE

CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING POPS. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A

SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IF

THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND...WILL HAVE TO INCREASE POPS

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