PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Minus 30 at 850 , Christmas 1983 ." If that's right " , would get us to 0 that nite . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NYC area. Do you think we can avoid the one day warm up late next week? Aren't some of the models showing this wrong with the constant cold push in Canada. Could we get a huge overunning snow and ice event instead of the brief mild period in seven days? Please comment. I think we are having a white Christmas this year, like 95 percent chance... No cutters in this pattern, no way !! I bet Chrismas Day has low -5 F below and highs 7-12 F degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Today's 12z gfs is pretty impressive for cold on Christmas. The warmup beforehand is definitely muted as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 That would be really nice. I like the muted warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Today's 12z gfs is pretty impressive for cold on Christmas. The warmup beforehand is definitely muted as well. Check the 0z EURO control and ensembles 2 mm temps the 26th minus 10 up by u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Check the 0z EURO and ensembles 2 mm temps the 26th minus 10 up by u Ill take it. Even if we have that warmup a few days earlier, i want christmas to feel cold lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ill take it. Even if we have that warmup a few days earlier, i want christmas to feel cold lol The warm up is 2 days - Pulls back Sat - Sun then the trough back by next monday . This time the discharge is down the plains and thru the lakes .so that shot is the coldest of the year . may rival 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 IMO, a White Christmas is a very good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 White Christmas hopes dashed due to warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Why did the 0z Euro mute the cold for Christmas? Is the EPO remaining positive for the rest of the December? And what about the brief +PNA spike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The warm up is 2 days - Pulls back Sat - Sun then the trough back by next monday . This time the discharge is down the plains and thru the lakes .so that shot is the coldest of the year . may rival 83 The Euro so backed off on this , Took the PV and swings it east not South . B @#$% call . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The Euro so backed off on this , Took the PV and swings it east not South . B @#$% call . I believe the GEFS has been colder in the long range (15 days) all along. Wants to keep 2M highs starting the 23rd to end of year now, in the low 30's. EURO has hesitated lately, 552dm. line stays north of NYC more than it did earlier. Snow NewYearsEve in Times Sq.?, if so, who needs Red Sq.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 24, 2013 Author Share Posted December 24, 2013 Cross your fingers Just a possible dusting in some NYC areas.. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 642 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013 SYNOPSIS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR CHRISTMAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/ POTENTIAL FLASH FREEZE/ICING EVENT THIS EVENING... BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS OVER NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING MESO LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING. BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH A QUICK 1/2 INCH OF SNOW AND 30 MPH WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NW NJ...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS NE NJ AND BORDERING LOWER HUDSON VALLEY ZONES THROUGH 7 PM. BASED ON TRACK OF MES0-LOW WOULD EXPECT HEAVIEST ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE SE INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AND LI/CT/NY SURROUNDINGS BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM. THEN ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT BTWN 8 AND 9 PM. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEHIND INITIAL BAND...BUT LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUM EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 I don't see it happening . NYZ072-250915-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-856 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THISEVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY ATTIMES THIS EVENING. BRISK WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWESTWINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW50 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 The locations that did record snowfall this evening: Congrats on your "White Christmas". PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1040 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0626 PM HEAVY SNOW OAKLAND 41.03N 74.24W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER SNOW SQUALL OBSERVED 0704 PM HEAVY SNOW RIDGEWOOD 40.98N 74.11W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER 0.6 INCH OF SNOW REPORTED IN 20 MINUTES DURING A SNOW SQUALL. VISIBILITY DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE. 0705 PM HEAVY SNOW WEST MILFORD 41.11N 74.40W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH PASSAIC NJ TRAINED SPOTTER 1.0 INCH OF SNOW REPORTED DURING SNOW SQUALL 0734 PM HEAVY SNOW SCARSDALE 40.99N 73.78W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH WESTCHESTER NY TRAINED SPOTTER 0.5 INCH OF SNOW DURING SNOW SQUALL 0802 PM HEAVY SNOW STONY POINT 41.23N 74.00W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH ROCKLAND NY TRAINED SPOTTER 0.3 INCH OF SNOW IN SNOW SQUALL 0819 PM HEAVY SNOW RIDGEFIELD 41.27N 73.50W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER 0.8 INCH OF SNOW REPORTED DURING SNOW SQUALL 0835 PM HEAVY SNOW NORWALK 41.09N 73.42W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH FAIRFIELD CT PUBLIC 0.5 INCH OF SNOW REPORTED DURING SNOW SQUALL 0843 PM HEAVY SNOW SMITHTOWN 40.86N 73.21W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH SUFFOLK NY NWS EMPLOYEE 0.5 INCH OF SNOW REPORTED IN LESS THAN 20 MIN DURING A SNOW SQUALL 0857 PM HEAVY SNOW ISLIP AIRPORT 40.80N 73.10W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH SUFFOLK NY ASOS 1.6 INCH OF SNOW REPORTED BY FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER DURING SNOW SQUALL 0901 PM HEAVY SNOW RONKONKOMA 40.80N 73.12W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH SUFFOLK NY NWS EMPLOYEE 0.6 INCH OF SNOW REPORTED DURING SNOW SQUALL 0921 PM HEAVY SNOW LLOYD HARBOR 40.92N 73.46W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH SUFFOLK NY TRAINED SPOTTER 0.5 INCH OF SNOW REPORTED DURING SNOW SQUALL 0921 PM HEAVY SNOW SETAUKET 40.94N 73.12W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH SUFFOLK NY NWS EMPLOYEE 1.0 INCH OF SNOW REPORTED DURING SNOW SQUALL 0937 PM HEAVY SNOW UPTON 40.87N 72.89W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH SUFFOLK NY NWS OFFICE 0.8 INCH OF SNOW REPORTED DURING SNOW SQUALL 0951 PM HEAVY SNOW LAKE CARMEL 41.46N 73.67W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH PUTNAM NY NWS EMPLOYEE 0.5 INCH OF SNOW DURING SNOW SQUALL 1036 PM HEAVY SNOW MAHOPAC 41.37N 73.74W 12/24/2013 U0.0 INCH PUTNAM NY PUBLIC 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW FROM SNOW SQUALL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Bump, another year to pass without a white NYC Christmas - less than 10 percent based on 1981-2010 data and not much encouragement from the models. Anyway, here is an updated link from the NWS, Pittsburgh office that may be worth your reading and reference. http://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/are-you-dreaming-white-christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Another white christmas fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Keep dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Guess where.... TonightSnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 6. Windy, with a west wind 50 to 55 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 36 to 42 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I give up where ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Somewhere near Mt Baker, WA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Somewhere near Mt Baker, WA? Wow, this is a fantastic snowfall forecast for the week before Christmas. Mt. Baker, WA certainly gets their share of snow, annually. http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/releases99/aug99/noaa99056.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Sad even the top of Mt. Washington is getting poured on Xmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Sad even the top of Mt. Washington is getting poured on Xmas Eve. But maybe they salvage Christmas day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Sad even the top of Mt. Washington is getting poured on Xmas Eve. That borders on unheard of...they see very little precip that is not of the frozen variety between October & April...and especially not in the dead of winter...since they are 1.2 miles in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 That borders on unheard of...they see very little precip that is not of the frozen variety between October & April...and especially not in the dead of winter...since they are 1.2 miles in the sky. True, Pam but they measured 23" snow/ice on the ground yesterday morning and have 48.8" of snow/ice also as of yesterday for the month of December. https://www.mountwashington.org/uploads/forms/2014/12.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 That borders on unheard of...they see very little precip that is not of the frozen variety between October & April...and especially not in the dead of winter...since they are 1.2 miles in the sky. They get their share of rain during the winter. Any strong cutter will do it. Its not high enough to escape the warm southerly flow. That's why even the highest East Coast ski resorts have problems with ice. White Face at 4400' is kick named iceface. Out West at Mammoth for example the lowest elevation is 8000' so they don't have to worry about ice/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 True, Pam but they measured 23" snow/ice on the ground yesterday morning and have 48.8" of snow/ice also as of yesterday for the month of December. https://www.mountwashington.org/uploads/forms/2014/12.pdf I think I was just referring to his comment about rain on Christmas there...and not any preceding weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 They get their share of rain during the winter. Any strong cutter will do it. Its not high enough to escape the warm southerly flow. That's why even the highest East Coast ski resorts have problems with ice. White Face at 4400' is kick named iceface. Out West at Mammoth for example the lowest elevation is 8000' so they don't have to worry about ice/rain. It does not rain much up there above the 850 mb level during the winter...they may get sleet, freezing rain, graupel (great rime ice develops up there btw)...but not much plain rain. Moreover, to compare "Mammoth"...a western high location with one in the NE is really no comparison at all...that would be like moving Denver to the longitude of Philadelphia...and expecting a similar climatological outcome. The shallowness of cold air prevents places like Denver from ever experiencing the incredibly severe winters they would have if they were somehow magically transported east of the Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Dec 24th 1966 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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