PB GFI Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I always thought the xmas storm was the key to the second storm . However it looks like the center is gona head too far north and the play here was the further south system 1 headed off , system 2 would cut underneath. Still think some on the board will wake up to a coating xmas morning just not gona b that widespread . Cant think about a New Years system , I just watched 2 storms evaporate inside 12 hrs so i b toasted . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gfs puts it through the grinder...really no qpf at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If we're lucky we see flurries/sprinkles on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 H5 Trof goes neutral tilt too early...850 mb low also heading for Cincinnati. This is not our storm. 0z NAM implies a healthy front-end dump, especially for NW suburbs. 850 line still south of PHL at 84 hours with precipitation already moving into Pennsylvania. Given the dynamic cooling with heavy precip, I think we start as snow on this one, at least here in Dobbs Ferry at 350' elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The UKMET is still wet it appears as is the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro has about .1 of light snow still. Gfs look to have some flakes for us also. At this point w/e we can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Nam is pretty wet compared to other guidance but surface seems to be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Nam is pretty wet compared to other guidance but surface seems to be warm. The RGEM continues to be wet as well. The NAM/RGEM may be picking up on the isentropic lift and WAA aloft, we were talking about this in the New England forum last night which may be why the NAM is showing more precip well SE of the 500 vort over NYC/SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 6z Nam and GFS went south for this event. It has a nice CAD signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z NAM , better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Nam is wetter and colder. Places away from the coast would do better on this run. The coast also sees snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Nam is wetter and colder. Places away from the coast would do better on this run. The coast also sees snow. much colder run!!..I expect to see at least some snow at of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Draw a line I 80 headed east from PA and into Southern CT and points North - Think pp see an inch of snow xmas morning . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM has BL issues, but I think that would mostly affect people at the coast or in lower elevations. 850s seem cool enough, and maybe heavier precip. means a little more dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like most would be between 0.2 and 0.25 qpf on the new nam and cold enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 much colder run!!..I expect to see at least some snow at of this I don't care if it sticks. I want to see snow flying on Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM has BL issues, but I think that would mostly affect people at the coast or in lower elevations. 850s seem cool enough, and maybe heavier precip. means a little more dynamic cooling. 540 line is south,850 line is south..in any other winter it would mean snow...if we don't see flakes out of this one..man it could be a loooong winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 At this point, Idc if we don't get accumulations, but I'd like to see snow falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 540 line is south,850 line is south..in any other winter it would mean snow...if we don't see flakes out of this one..man it could be a loooong winter Soundings for NYC and LGA show the freezing line at 902mb. Tough to get snow with the last 100mb of the atmosphere that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 my daughter and son inlaw are going on their honeymoon Christmas morning...They are flying out of Newark...Unless this turns into a wet snow blitz delays will be slight if at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hopefully it's the trend for the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 A good tool to look at for these events is the 700mb RH panels...you want to see tight packing in the heights, near due south or SSW flow, and deep RH...we have deep RH and the southerly flow but not so much the tight packing on the heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gfs not as wet as nam. Still looks like surface problems. Perhaps it starts as some wet snow. Nam sounding had wet snow-rain for ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm expecting primarily scattered light rain showers that might start as flurries. This is not a system that will produce any solid area of precipitation nor will there be any scattered heavier showers. Temperatures should be in the 38-42 range for much of the precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Any word on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z Euro looks very dry and warm especially towards the end of the precip. Probably will start out as some light snow for most then transition to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hwo up this way for less than four inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NWS has all rain in Dobbs Ferry for the XMAS storm...low of 33F Christmas Eve and high of 43F Christmas Day. Does this sound a little warm? I have to think Upton is wrong and we at least start with some snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NWS has all rain in Dobbs Ferry for the XMAS storm...low of 33F Christmas Eve and high of 43F Christmas Day. Does this sound a little warm? I have to think Upton is wrong and we at least start with some snow.. 18z Nam is colder..850 and 540 line to our south and it's still rain..I just don't get it..what is this early november or April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z Nam is colder..850 and 540 line to our south and it's still rain..I just don't get it..what is this early november or April? I'm pretty sure the 18z NAM would be snow for Westchester. We're supposed to get down in the upper 20s tonight and only have mid-upper 30s tomorrow with a dry airmass, so there is room for wetbulbing. I continue to think the NW suburbs, and parts of LI's North Shore, will have a surprise on Christmas Day with 1-2" of fresh snowfall. Upton should adjust their forecast to include at least a mix for Dobbs Ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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