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Vendor Forecast Discussion

am19psu

By am19psu,
in Philadelphia Region

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NJHurricane

NJHurricane

Posted
Posted

Biased because you think Glenn is awesome, or because Sheena is hot? :lol:

At some point the philly weenies will have to accept that Sheena is a darn good meteorologist in her own right...FSU don't hand out degrees for being purdy and she has a gift for conveying nuance in forecasts on air...but i won't disagree with any of the above

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

JB thoughts from today

 

He commented on the GFS which as Dr Maue has put it, is the JV compared to the ECMWF.  The reason he is once again harping on this is that what disturbs him is that so many folks in the US use this inferior model for point and click and then use that to plan. By contrast  he points to the rock solid ECMWF on the trough next week, and  shows how the GFS is slowing down.  He sees  two clippers coming and both will cut south of the lakes and New England. He insists the pattern should be good, and the Lord willing, turn into a great one for snow lovers in much of the US. In fact the  northern part of the clipper areas ( north of I-80) may not be fed till later in the month as much as ares south.  While he can't promise you the extremes of  Feb  10, I can say the closest recent example of what is setting up later on  ( after we get through the  battle looming in front of us)  is Feb 2010.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

JB thoughts from today

 

He commented on the GFS which as Dr Maue has put it, is the JV compared to the ECMWF.  The reason he is once again harping on this is that what disturbs him is that so many folks in the US use this inferior model for point and click and then use that to plan. By contrast  he points to the rock solid ECMWF on the trough next week, and  shows how the GFS is slowing down.  He sees  two clippers coming and both will cut south of the lakes and New England. He insists the pattern should be good, and the Lord willing, turn into a great one for snow lovers in much of the US. In fact the  northern part of the clipper areas ( north of I-80) may not be fed till later in the month as much as ares south.  While he can't promise you the extremes of  Feb  10, I can say the closest recent example of what is setting up later on  ( after we get through the  battle looming in front of us)  is Feb 2010.

 

Bastardi's and Maue's frequent ridicule of the GFS is misplaced. I don't see the reason for it and, at least for me, their act is growing tiresome. More importantly, it may be having an adverse impact on their forecasts.

 

The reality is that the GFS model has been improved over the years. Today's GFS is not the GFS c.2000. It has held its own against the Euro quite often. The following is an example where I believe an outright dismisal of the GFS produced an adverse forecasting impact.

 

January 23-26 Severe Cold/Possible Snowstorm:

 

If one recalls, the Euro suggested that the 1/25 snowfall could be a significant one (even on the order of a KU storm in one of its runs), not the GFS. The GFS never went beyond a moderate snowfall and most of its runs indicated a light snowfall.Based on the far more robust Euro, JB tweeted the following on January 20:

 

"NYC 4-8 inches of snow Friday 6F fri night and near 0 Sat night"

 

On January 21, he continued to hold fast to the Euro's outlook writing:

 

"ECMWF pushing even colder arctic high in the way of late week storm. NYC may not get of teens thur, fri, sat.. one night could hit 0." The Euro's outlook was so cold that Ryan Maue even tweeted that the ECMWF was indicating a day where the temperature could fall to -10° in NYC and asking when was the last time that occurred. JB retweeted Maue's message.

 

The answer, of course, is 2/9/1934 when the temperature fell to -15°. Moreover, the last time NYC had a high temperature in the teens occurred on 1/16/2009. Upping the ante by taking what has become an increasingly infrequent event for NYC and suggesting that it could occur for 3 consecutive days was extremely aggressive. However, the Euro suggested such an outcome was possible, and its idea was taken literally.The last time NYC hit 0° occurred back on 1/27/1994. Even the super Arctic blasts of 1994 didn't produce three consecutive days with highs in the teens. NYC's climatology, along with the GFS, suggested that the Euro was going too far.

 

With regard to the storm, the GFS remained much less impressed than the Euro, prompting JB to write on January 22:

 

"Its GFS time... lets see if it continues to make my end of week storm a Friday fiasco"

 

It did. What happened was as follows:

 

Lowest reading: 11° Thursday morning (1/23)

Lowest maximum: 20° Thursday (1/23)

Snowfall: 1/25: 1.5"

 

Clearly, one can expect some degree of forecasting and timing error from that far out, but when it came to the magnitude of the cold and storm, the GFS's ideas proved superior to the Euro's solutions. The point is not that one should not expect a forecasting error, but that a discounting of the GFS's solutions probably led to the forecasting errors proving larger than would otherwise have been the case.  

 

In the end, I believe that one should consider the range of modeling and ensembles before making forecasts. Even as the Euro remains, in general, the leading global model, its edge over the others, including the GFS, is not as large as it had been even a few years ago. Simply dismissing the GFS when it offers a dissenting idea is not wise. Instead, one should see disagreement among two very good models as suggesting high uncertainty justifying a closer examination of the possible outcomes. One should not simply discount a solution one thinks is not likely, as it differs from the ECMWF. 

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Snow Man

Snow Man

Posted
Posted

Don - Good analysis. I think you are spot on with regard to the GFS vs. the ECMWF. However, it seems to me that the long range models overall have been poor this winter. I don't know if anyone can give us an overall grade for the major models comparing their accuracy to prior years.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

@BigJoeBastardi: Next "surprise" snow now starting in n plains.. 100-200 mile wide band to nj coast on way 2-4 local 6 for Chicago tnt

@BigJoeBastardi: Somers PT NJ 4-.4.5 inches of 30% pop of snow showers ( from yesterday) Beware the clippers!

@BigJoeBastardi: Forecast had "snow showers" Forecasters in path of clippers better wake up to narrow banded furious snows with them.2 or 3 on way nxt 4 dys

@BigJoeBastardi: Next "surprise" snow now starting in n plains.. 100-200 mile wide band to nj coast on way 2-4 local 6 for Chicago tnt

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

JB paraphrase from today

From Bismark to the NJ coast and about 100 miles north and south you can have fun watching your favorite TV weather personality play capture the clipper over the next several days. JBs advice is to keep an eye on the Canadian as its a great clipper site and nailed last nights event from a couple of days out. It has hourly precip for 120 hours and will show where the model thinks these heavy snow bands are. Another neat trick. Watch the upward motion forecast in 6 hour intervals near the -8 isotherm.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

@BigJoeBastardi: Next "surprise" snow now starting in n plains.. 100-200 mile wide band to nj coast on way 2-4 local 6 for Chicago tnt @BigJoeBastardi: Somers PT NJ 4-.4.5 inches of 30% pop of snow showers ( from yesterday) Beware the clippers! @BigJoeBastardi: Forecast had "snow showers" Forecasters in path of clippers better wake up to narrow banded furious snows with them.2 or 3 on way nxt 4 dys @BigJoeBastardi: Next "surprise" snow now starting in n plains.. 100-200 mile wide band to nj coast on way 2-4 local 6 for Chicago tnt

From the NWS:

 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1017 AM CST SAT FEB 02 2013
...MORNING SNOWFALL ROUNDUP...
   THE FOLLOWING ARE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE PREVIOUS 24-HOURS.
   OBSERVATIONS ARE USUALLY TAKEN AT 7 AM.
   24-HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY(02/02/13)...
NORTHERN ILLINOIS                              SNOW
  LOCATION (COUNTY):                           FALL(INCHES)
  WOODSTOCK 5NW (MCHENRY).......................3.2
  GENOA (DE KALB)...............................2.8
  ELGIN 1WSW (KANE).............................2.7
  OAK PARK 1NNE (COOK)..........................2.6
  FOX LAKE 2SE (LAKE)...........................2.6
  ELBURN (KANE).................................2.5
  GLEN ELLYN 1NNW (DU PAGE).....................2.5
  LAKE VILLA 1SSW (LAKE)........................2.5
  LAKEMOOR 2SE (LAKE)...........................2.5
  HUNTLEY 4W (MCHENRY)..........................2.5
  ALGONQUIN 1N (MCHENRY)........................2.5
  ROCKFORD (WINNEBAGO)..........................2.5
  ROCKFORD 4NW (WINNEBAGO)......................2.5
  SPRING GROVE 2N (MCHENRY).....................2.5
  PARK RIDGE (COOK).............................2.4
  BULL VALLEY 2WNW (MCHENRY)....................2.4
  ELK GROVE VILLAGE 1ESE (COOK).................2.3
  LINCOLNWOOD 2E (COOK).........................2.3
  WESTMONT 1SSE (DU PAGE).......................2.3
  GLEN ELLYN 2SSE (DU PAGE).....................2.3
  AURORA 4NE (DU PAGE)..........................2.3
  MONEE (WILL)..................................2.3
  ST CHARLES 7NW (KANE).........................2.3
  ELGIN (KANE)..................................2.2
  BATAVIA 2WNW (KANE)...........................2.2
  BATAVIA 1WNW (KANE)...........................2.2
  ST. CHARLES (KANE)............................2.2
  LAKE FOREST 2NNE (LAKE).......................2.2
  WOODSTOCK 2WSW (MCHENRY)......................2.2
  ST CHARLES (KANE).............................2.2
  WINFIELD (DU PAGE)............................2.2
  WOODSTOCK (MCHENRY)...........................2.2
  ROCKTON 1ESE (WINNEBAGO)......................2.1
  MCHENRY (MCHENRY).............................2.1
  BARRINGTON (LAKE).............................2.0
  BATAVIA (KANE)................................2.0
  OAK PARK 2S (COOK)............................2.0
  OAK LAWN (COOK)...............................2.0
  ELK GROVE VILLAGE 2WSW (COOK).................2.0
  LISLE (DU PAGE)...............................2.0
  BARTLETT 1SSE (DU PAGE).......................2.0
  NORTH AURORA 2NE (KANE).......................2.0
  GENEVA 2WSW (KANE)............................2.0
  ELGIN 2W (KANE)...............................2.0
  BEACH PARK 1W (LAKE)..........................2.0
  LAKE ZURICH (LAKE)............................2.0
  OHARE (COOK)..................................2.0
  ELMHURST 1ESE (DU PAGE).......................1.9
  SUGAR GROVE 1NE (KANE)........................1.9
  BYRON 3N (OGLE)...............................1.9
  HOFFMAN ESTATES 5W (COOK).....................1.8
  CORTLAND (DE KALB)............................1.8
  ST. CHARLES 6NW (KANE)........................1.8
  RIVERWOODS (LAKE).............................1.8
  PEOTONE (WILL)................................1.8
  ROSCOE 2ESE (WINNEBAGO).......................1.8
  PEOTONE (WILL)................................1.8
  ROSCOE 2SE (WINNEBAGO)........................1.8
  DE KALB (DE KALB).............................1.7
  HEBRON (MCHENRY)..............................1.7
  CHICAGO RIDGE (COOK)..........................1.7
  WORTH (COOK)..................................1.7
  LA GRANGE PARK 1SSW (COOK)....................1.7
  BURR RIDGE 2SW (DU PAGE)......................1.7
  MOMENCE 3NE (KANKAKEE)........................1.7
  GURNEE 2NE (LAKE).............................1.7
  HIGHWOOD 1S (LAKE)............................1.7
  ROCKFORD 3NE (WINNEBAGO)......................1.7
  MUNDELEIN (LAKE)..............................1.7
  STEWARD (LEE).................................1.7
  PALOS PARK 1SW (COOK).........................1.6
  MANHATTAN 5ENE (WILL).........................1.6
  PEOTONE (WILL)................................1.6
  MANHATTAN (WILL)..............................1.6
  OAK BROOK (DU PAGE)...........................1.6
  BOURBONNAIS (KANKAKEE)........................1.5
  BOTANIC GARDENS (COOK)........................1.5
  CAPRON (BOONE)................................1.5
  CHICAGO 6ESE (COOK)...........................1.5
  ORLAND HILLS 1SE (COOK).......................1.5
  AURORA 4SE (DU PAGE)..........................1.5
  BOLINGBROOK 3NE (DU PAGE).....................1.5
  DOWNERS GROVE 2SE (DU PAGE)...................1.5
  DIXON 3NNW (LEE)..............................1.5
  LINCOLNSHIRE 1N (LAKE)........................1.5
  NEW LENOX 3E (WILL)...........................1.5
  ROCHELLE (OGLE)...............................1.5
  CHANNAHON (WILL)..............................1.4
  COAL CITY 4NNW (GRUNDY).......................1.4
  INVERNESS 2S (COOK)...........................1.4
  CRETE 3E (WILL)...............................1.4
  PARK FOREST (COOK)............................1.4
  AURORA 4SE (DU PAGE)..........................1.3
  MORRIS 6ESE (GRUNDY)..........................1.3
  SOUTH WILMINGTON 2E (GRUNDY)..................1.3
  MONTGOMERY 1SSE (KENDALL).....................1.3
  JOLIET 2N (WILL)..............................1.3
  PLAINFIELD (WILL).............................1.3
  AURORA (KANE).................................1.2
  ORLAND HILLS 1S (COOK)........................1.2
  HOMER GLEN 4WNW (WILL)........................1.2
  EARLVILLE 3S (LA SALLE).......................1.1
  PALATINE 1E (COOK)............................1.1
  PLAINFIELD 5SW (KENDALL)......................1.1
  OTTAWA 2N (LA SALLE)..........................1.1
  PLAINFIELD 2SSE (WILL)........................1.1
  ORLAND PARK 5WNW (WILL).......................1.1
  ROMEOVILLE (WILL).............................1.1
  BRACEVILLE (GRUNDY)...........................1.0
  WATSEKA 5W (IROQUOIS).........................1.0
  BONFIELD 4NNE (KANKAKEE)......................1.0
  OTTAWA 1NW (LA SALLE).........................1.0
  MARSEILLES 6WNW (LA SALLE)....................1.0
  SENECA 1NE (LA SALLE).........................1.0
  NEW LENOX 2SE (WILL)..........................1.0
  PLAINFIELD 1SW (WILL).........................1.0
  LOCKPORT 1SE (WILL)...........................1.0
  NEW LENOX 4SE (WILL)..........................1.0
  JOLIET (WILL).................................1.0
  MENDOTA (LA SALLE)............................1.0
  MARSEILLES (LA SALLE).........................1.0
  OTTAWA (LA SALLE).............................1.0
  PAXTON (FORD).................................1.0
  ST ANNE (KANKAKEE)............................1.0
  YORKVILLE 2SE (KENDALL).......................1.0
  DIXON 2SW (LEE)...............................0.9
  LA SALLE (LA SALLE)...........................0.9
  MENDOTA 2SE (LA SALLE)........................0.9
  WAUKEGAN 2N (LAKE)............................0.8
  JOLIET LOCK/DAM (WILL)........................0.8
  MILFORD (IROQUOIS)............................0.7
  FAIRBURY (LIVINGSTON).........................0.6
  BOURBONNAIS 2NNE (KANKAKEE)...................0.6
  AMBOY (LEE)...................................0.6
  STREATOR 4ENE (LA SALLE)......................0.6
  CHATSWORTH (LIVINGSTON).......................0.5
  BONFIELD 4WSW (KANKAKEE)......................0.5
  STREATOR 1WSW (LA SALLE)......................0.5
  CHATSWORTH (LIVINGSTON).......................0.5
  STREATOR (LIVINGSTON).........................0.5
  KANKAKEE 3SE (KANKAKEE).......................0.4
  MARSEILLES 3NW (LA SALLE).....................0.4
  DRESDEN LOCK/DAM (GRUNDY).....................0.2
  DWIGHT (LIVINGSTON)...........................0.1
  YORKVILLE 1NE (KENDALL).......................0.1

Overall, this event was not very impressive in Illinois. Whether or not that suggests that it will underperform in the east remains to be seen.

 

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

JB at WB with his view of the 3 systems impacting the Northeast this week

 

Number one brings 1/2 to 2 inches of snow within 50 miles of the axis (runs south of PHL). Local amounts to 4 inches are possible,

Number 2 is 1-3 75 miles either side of the line (runs north of PHL )with local amounts to 5 inches This is the bigger of the two systems

 

He sees a bigger snow and ice maker is likely later in the week ( Thursday into Friday) - much of interior southern New York and interior New England could have their biggest snow of the year with this. He thinks the models may try to "overwarm" the system . For now he sees a toss up in the big cities of New York and PHL, but mainly snow north of that for much of New England, and a plowing threat for areas from Scanton to Providence north.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

even don is getting in on the jb bumptrolling. :lol:

I just wanted to provide a reference point, as JB put out numbers. In general, in a very progressive pattern when there's litlte opportunity for clippers to slow down as they approach the coast, the systems' dynamics essentially determine how much snow falls, as they have very little time to tap into Atlantic moisture prior to their departure. The February 1 clipper was very strong aloft--much stronger than the 2/2-3 clipper and those coming tonight and tomorrow night. Hence, it rapidly began to tap into Atlantic moisture as it approached the coast resulting in a swath of moderate snow accumulations and briefly heavy snow in parts of Delaware and northern Cape May County in New Jersey. Had it slowed down just a little, some areas might have seen more than 10" of snow.

 

The event in question was less impressive in Illinois than what JB had indicated (reference point). With no blocking in place, this underperformance was a matter for concern if one were looking for perhaps a moderate snowfall. In the end, snowfall amounts proved light in parts of the Middle Atlantic region.

 

Tonight's clipper might be a little more robust than the 2/2-3 one. Snowfall reports from affected areas today could provide some insight.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

JB musings from the upcoming East Coast Storm

He says the problems starts Thursday here as he thinks the ECMWF is going to score a coup with a storm on the Northeast coast that will put down a lot of snow in the interior Northeast and allow a new high to build on the weekend, which will mean the below normal in the Northeast lasts until next week. He generally says watch out from NY State through New England - should be an interesting storm and chance for the Euro to regain it's king status.

 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

The early upstream data suggests that the 2/4-5 clipper is more robust than the 2/2-3 clipper. Below are snow accumulations from Illinois:

 

 

000
NOUS43 KLOT 041649
PNSLOT
ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
050500-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1049 AM CST MON FEB 4 2013 /1149 AM EST MON FEB 4 2013/
...MORNING SNOWFALL ROUNDUP...
   THE FOLLOWING ARE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE PREVIOUS 24-HOURS.
   OBSERVATIONS ARE USUALLY TAKEN AT 7 AM. THIS DOES SPAN
   PORTIONS OF TWO SNOWFALL EVENTS FROM SUNDAY MORNING AND
   AGAIN LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING.
   24-HOUR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY(02/04/13)...
NORTHERN ILLINOIS                              SNOW
  LOCATION (COUNTY):                           FALL(INCHES)
  ROCKFORD 3NE (WINNEBAGO)......................4.0
  ROCKFORD 4NW (WINNEBAGO)......................3.8
  ROCKFORD 1NW (WINNEBAGO)......................3.6
  ROCKFORD (WINNEBAGO)..........................3.6
  ELK GROVE VILLAGE 2WSW (COOK).................3.5
  STREAMWOOD (COOK).............................3.5
  LILY LAKE 2E (KANE)...........................3.5
  HUNTLEY 4W (MCHENRY)..........................3.5
  ROCKFORD 2ENE (WINNEBAGO).....................3.5
  PINGREE GROVE 1NW (KANE)......................3.4
  ELGIN 2W (KANE)...............................3.3
  ST. CHARLES 6NW (KANE)........................3.1
  ROSCOE 2ESE (WINNEBAGO).......................3.1
  ROSCOE 2SE (WINNEBAGO)........................3.1
  ELMHURST 1ESE (DU PAGE).......................3.0
  CAROL STREAM (DU PAGE)........................2.9
  MCHENRY (MCHENRY).............................2.9
  BARRINGTON (LAKE).............................2.8
  HOFFMAN ESTATES 5W (COOK).....................2.8
  ELK GROVE VILLAGE 1ESE (COOK).................2.8
  WESTMONT 1SSE (DU PAGE).......................2.8
  CAPRON (BOONE)................................2.7
  ROSELLE 1ESE (DU PAGE)........................2.7
  BULL VALLEY 2WNW (MCHENRY)....................2.7
  ELGIN (KANE)..................................2.6
  PALATINE 1E (COOK)............................2.6
  INVERNESS 2S (COOK)...........................2.6
  ARLINGTON HEIGHTS 2NNW (COOK).................2.6
  MUNDELEIN (LAKE)..............................2.6
  OHARE (COOK)..................................2.6
  ELGIN (KANE)..................................2.5
  ELBURN (KANE).................................2.5
  HARVARD (MCHENRY).............................2.5
  SCHAUMBURG  2E (COOK).........................2.5
  PARK RIDGE (COOK).............................2.5
  OAK PARK 1SW (COOK)...........................2.5
  BARTLETT 1SSE (DU PAGE).......................2.5
  GLEN ELLYN 1NE (DU PAGE)......................2.5
  ELGIN 1S (KANE)...............................2.5
  ST. CHARLES (KANE)............................2.5
  ST CHARLES (KANE).............................2.5
  BELVIDERE (BOONE).............................2.4
  BOTANIC GARDENS (COOK)........................2.4
  NORTH RIVERSIDE (COOK)........................2.4
  LINCOLNWOOD 2E (COOK).........................2.4
  LA GRANGE PARK 1SSW (COOK)....................2.4
  WONDER LAKE 1WNW (MCHENRY)....................2.4
  OAK BROOK (DU PAGE)...........................2.4
  ST CHARLES 7NW (KANE).........................2.4
  WINFIELD (DU PAGE)............................2.4
  HARWOOD HEIGHTS 2NNE (COOK)...................2.3
  CARY 2NE (MCHENRY)............................2.3
  WOODSTOCK 2WSW (MCHENRY)......................2.3
  WOODSTOCK (MCHENRY)...........................2.3
  GENOA (DE KALB)...............................2.2
  GLEN ELLYN (DU PAGE)..........................2.2
  HEBRON (MCHENRY)..............................2.2
  CHICAGO 6ESE (COOK)...........................2.2
  ELBURN 3NNE (KANE)............................2.2
  LAKEMOOR 2SE (LAKE)...........................2.2
  HIGHWOOD 1S (LAKE)............................2.2
  WINNETKA 1ESE (COOK)..........................2.1
  GENEVA 2ENE (KANE)............................2.1
  GENEVA 2WSW (KANE)............................2.1
  HAWTHORN WOODS 1N (LAKE)......................2.1
  SPRING GROVE 2N (MCHENRY).....................2.1
  OAK PARK 2S (COOK)............................2.0
  COUNTRYSIDE 1ENE (COOK).......................2.0
  COUNTRYSIDE 1NNE (COOK).......................2.0
  GLEN ELLYN 2SSE (DU PAGE).....................2.0
  ELMHURST (DU PAGE)............................2.0
  ELBURN (KANE).................................2.0
  LINCOLNSHIRE 1N (LAKE)........................2.0
  FOX LAKE 2SE (LAKE)...........................2.0
  WOODSTOCK 5NW (MCHENRY).......................2.0
  BATAVIA 2WNW (KANE)...........................1.9
  DE KALB (DE KALB).............................1.8
  GENEVA 3WSW (KANE)............................1.8
  BATAVIA 1WNW (KANE)...........................1.8
  GENEVA 1N (KANE)..............................1.8
  GENEVA 1SSW (KANE)............................1.8
  RIVERWOODS (LAKE).............................1.8
  ROMEOVILLE (WILL).............................1.7
  ANTIOCH 4W (LAKE).............................1.6
  DE KALB (DE KALB).............................1.6
  LISLE MORTON ARB (DU PAGE)....................1.6
  BATAVIA (KANE)................................1.5
  OAK LAWN (COOK)...............................1.5
  CORTLAND (DE KALB)............................1.5
  LISLE 1SE (DU PAGE)...........................1.5
  BEACH PARK 1W (LAKE)..........................1.5
  GURNEE 2NE (LAKE).............................1.5
  LAKE VILLA 1SSW (LAKE)........................1.5
  WAUKEGAN 2N (LAKE)............................1.5
  NORTH AURORA 2NE (KANE).......................1.4
  LISLE (DU PAGE)...............................1.3
  BURR RIDGE 2SW (DU PAGE)......................1.3
  WORTH (COOK)..................................1.2
  MALTA (DE KALB)...............................1.2
  AURORA 4NE (DU PAGE)..........................1.2
  NAPERVILLE 1NW (DU PAGE)......................1.2
  SUGAR GROVE 1NE (KANE)........................1.2
  MONTGOMERY 1SSE (KENDALL).....................1.1
  JOLIET 2N (WILL)..............................1.1
  AURORA (KANE).................................1.0
  CHICAGO RIDGE (COOK)..........................1.0
  AURORA 4SE (DU PAGE)..........................1.0
  BOLINGBROOK 3NE (DU PAGE).....................1.0
  HOMER GLEN 4WNW (WILL)........................1.0
  PLAINFIELD (WILL).............................1.0
  PLAINFIELD 2SSE (WILL)........................0.9
  ORLAND HILLS 1SE (COOK).......................0.8
  ORLAND PARK 5WNW (WILL).......................0.8
  ORLAND HILLS 1S (COOK)........................0.7
  AURORA 4SE (DU PAGE)..........................0.7
  SHABBONA (DE KALB)............................0.7
  PLAINFIELD 5SW (KENDALL)......................0.6
  HOMER GLEN 1ENE (WILL)........................0.6
  NEW LENOX 2SE (WILL)..........................0.6
  NEW LENOX 3E (WILL)...........................0.6
  PALOS PARK 1SW (COOK).........................0.5
  HOMEWOOD (COOK)...............................0.5
  YORKVILLE 1NE (KENDALL).......................0.5
  SHERIDAN (LA SALLE)...........................0.5
  PEOTONE (WILL)................................0.5
  LOCKPORT 1SE (WILL)...........................0.5
  NEW LENOX 4SE (WILL)..........................0.5
  PAW PAW (LEE).................................0.5
  PARK FOREST (COOK)............................0.5
  ROCHELLE (OGLE)...............................0.5

 

 

If one looks back to the earlier message in this thread concerning the 2/2 snowfall amounts in Illinois, one found the following:

 

% of Stations:

4" or more: 0.0%

3" or more: 0.7%

2" or more: 32.4%

<2": 67.6%

<1" 13.8%

 

For 2/4, one finds:

 

% of Stations:

4" or more: 0.8%

3" or more: 11.5%

2" or more: 57.7%

<2": 42.3%

<1" 15.4%

 

This time around, the incidence of 2" or greater and 3" or greater amounts were notably higher. Therefore, unlike the 2/2-3 clipper where highest reported amounts were generally close to an inch in the Mount Holly forecast area and under 1.5" in the Upton forecast area, my guess is that this time around highest amounts could be closer to 1.5"-2.5" with isolated amounts perhaps near 3".

 

Note: The figures noted above are highest amounts. Most places will probably finish in the 0.5"-1.5" range.

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

I just wanted to provide a reference point, as JB put out numbers. In general, in a very progressive pattern when there's litlte opportunity for clippers to slow down as they approach the coast, the systems' dynamics essentially determine how much snow falls, as they have very little time to tap into Atlantic moisture prior to their departure. The February 1 clipper was very strong aloft--much stronger than the 2/2-3 clipper and those coming tonight and tomorrow night. Hence, it rapidly began to tap into Atlantic moisture as it approached the coast resulting in a swath of moderate snow accumulations and briefly heavy snow in parts of Delaware and northern Cape May County in New Jersey. Had it slowed down just a little, some areas might have seen more than 10" of snow.

 

The event in question was less impressive in Illinois than what JB had indicated (reference point). With no blocking in place, this underperformance was a matter for concern if one were looking for perhaps a moderate snowfall. In the end, snowfall amounts proved light in parts of the Middle Atlantic region.

 

Tonight's clipper might be a little more robust than the 2/2-3 one. Snowfall reports from affected areas today could provide some insight.

 

It's as "troll" as you'll ever get. ;)

 

BTW, wouldn't surprise me if tonight's totals approach 2" or exceed it in parts of our area.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

From JB today on WB

 

 JB sees this as mainly snow from the Mason Dixon line north with heavy amounts once away from the coast even in Jersey and Most of New England as well as southern New York State. He will be putting out one map,

 

He says as the US model comes around, I am hopeful that what is taken away here is not that there is likely to be the biggest snowstorm of the season so for in the Big cities PHL ne , but the dissection he had done before it became obvious. He mentions that he is not a model "worshipper" quite the contrary, admitting that part of his problem may be he tries to find a way to beat the consensus all the time when there are times one takes the tie. All because he loves to compete. .Overall he sees a potential of a big storm, and places in New England could get the foot to 18 inches...there should be several inches around NYC.

 

 

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

More JB updates on the big storm coming...

 

He thinks NYC is on the borderline with this, a 3-6 inch storm that could be as much as foot if they can keep it snow The place that could really get blasted is LI on the backlash. Basically a widespread 8-16 inches locally 2 feet, though as in many great storms, the rain line may get inland for a while even in southern New England. He told the crew at Weatherbell the complaint after this will be the 2-3 day warm up on the way that will come along and eat into the snowcover so when the next one comes....and he feels there will be a next one folks will be upset they did not hold the snow cover

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Sorry for this rant but.....WOW  is Justin Drabek (sp?)  a terrible "meteorologist" (emphasis on the "DRAB")....

as a small example, just heard him on KYW radio and he's calling for a few showers on Friday...HUH...any model support for just "a few showers"??!

You didn't see the non-event on the 18Z GFS, did you...

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

just SO opposite of everything else I've read and heard....

regardless, fwiw, my opinion stands about him and KYW's decision  

Well, every model already has a hint that if the two systems don't phase soon enough, then it very well may be just "a few showers" as many showed up til today... there's definitely a slot of "screw zone".  Now, I wouldn't ignore the turn of today, but frankly "a few showers" is still within the range of possibilities.  Still a lot that can change with this.

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