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Vendor Forecast Discussion


am19psu

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JB's take on the latest runs (including the flatter EURO)

"Unitl this comes over the rockies the problem is the feedback that is leading to part of the energy jumping out. THe ECMWF is like that now too. The JMA, like the UKMET is hanging back and doesnt like sending energy out....This has a long way to go. Can I see the flatter solution?? certainly. Do I believe it??? NO

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JB "GFS starting comeback - paraphrase below

 

The 12z run of the has a large area of .1 to .2 with sub -12C  at  5k and that is a recipe for a high ratio storm.....showing you why you just dont quit on something 4 days away. He agrees that chances are it will not get back to  the .5  to 1 inch beast it had before, but clippers like this love to drop a 100 mile wide band of  4-8 inch powder with lesser amounts north of the band, and true  10 or 15 to 1 ratios to the south

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He's probably too snowy over NC...I think there will be a narrow corridor in WRN VA that sees a few inches but otherwise the mid-level WAA is just too strong down there that I think RDU/GSO go to sleet quickly and RIC may be too far north to see the higher QPF.

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More from JB.....also likes snow Sunday into Monday...

"The storm Thursday night into Saturday morning looks like it will have alot of .1 to .25 but the air is so cold that the rations will be high and the coastal front, this time in the mid atlantic states, may be a focus of higher amounts of water. The danger in this is that the high ratios can take off on you, and last minute input from the lakes, or the atlantic or even the Chesapeake or Delaware bay can jack amounts up. Its very interesting cause minus 12 air and a light onshore flow can lead to some interesting things. Perhaps we will get a warm up tonight with the clipper. I already covered alot of this in the midday post."

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Latest from JB on upcoming "event"

"As for the snow coming we have a large 1-2 inch event with up to 5 near the -8 ISOTHERM. Colder than that, its suprisingly close to 10 to 1 since its like sand. There are growth rate maximum for crystals at -8 and near -3... minus three is a great place cause its closer to higher water content. I like the ECMWF precip amounts best"

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JB's take on the latest runs (including the flatter EURO)

"Unitl this comes over the rockies the problem is the feedback that is leading to part of the energy jumping out. THe ECMWF is like that now too. The JMA, like the UKMET is hanging back and doesnt like sending energy out....This has a long way to go. Can I see the flatter solution?? certainly. Do I believe it??? NO

How did that work out?

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Latest JB post

"No one survives untouched in the pattern. The key to the entire winter snowfall forecast will be day 15-30. I believe that ridge migrates, like what set us up for Jan , up to Hudson bay. The normal Feb deviation means that instead of having the corrirdor of snow from that pattern over the Ohio valley into the interior NE, it will be further south. You are starting to see that now. How many systems in a row have had snow over Va now ( admittedly relatively minor, which is even more unusual since usually it take bigger precip events to snow south of the Mason Dixon line)"

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Latest JB post

"No one survives untouched in the pattern. The key to the entire winter snowfall forecast will be day 15-30. I believe that ridge migrates, like what set us up for Jan , up to Hudson bay. The normal Feb deviation means that instead of having the corrirdor of snow from that pattern over the Ohio valley into the interior NE, it will be further south. You are starting to see that now. How many systems in a row have had snow over Va now ( admittedly relatively minor, which is even more unusual since usually it take bigger precip events to snow south of the Mason Dixon line)"

Using clipper events that travel from northwest to southeast to justify a better track for storms that travel from southwest to northeast? Not a very good way of justifying his thoughts, IMO.

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Some additional JB paraphrased thoughts from the WB

 

JB likes the ECMWF ensembles and the MJO phase forecast as a good blend of where he sees this heading. He sees this as a heck of a way to run a warmup with an ice and snow starter. He sees the warm up will obviously come and go quickly and the fight will change to can clippers bring snow and how much southern energy can break through as we head into the other phases.  Also mentions the GFS is seeing a slowing of the MJO ....interesting because what could happen is the GFS is seeing what may happen later.. in a later phase, which perhaps would delay a bit the onset of the spring snapback... When its over next time, then its over for good in his opinion

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@BigJoeBastardi: Winter over????Not if KMA is right as its blocking pattern Feb 11-March 10 very similar to Snowmeggedon month of Feb 10 http://t.co/oVjR3a16

notice how he says "not if the KMA is right...."

OK, so if the KMA is wrong then it is over, right?

meh, he's just leaving himself an opening when things fall apart, just like the old JB

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