Animal Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Some musings from JB today He started off asking questions about the rumors of snow as thing of the past.....northern hemisphere did not get the message. December snowfall breaks record .. 1980. This winter has a chance to turn out, for the nation as a whole, as memorable as 09-10, 10-11 and perhaps even more so. But unlike the last two where major population centers were hit early, its been the "secondary cities" as he calls them because they dont attrack the attention of and NYC or Chicago or DC that have been hit. He says its a matter of when, not if in his opinion it gets cold. So what the ECMWF may be seeing and could be right on is that the current Kelvin wave progresses in a way that the time is limited for its trough east of Hawaii, and we back away until we get the wave far enough east to draw the negative in the eastern atlantic ( eastern version neg NAO) back west and then the height falls in Alaska it sees that the US models have no idea about so far, southeast. What would happen is we get cold come in, we level off and later, for Feb , go wild, as that would probably lock it in...But what will happen is one way or the otther, the wave will get us to where we have been the past 2 weeks and this time the block will be ready to deliver. Once there it locks for Feb, but snaps for March. Paul, Submit a PM to JB. Request Winter return in February! I truly hope we don't go 20 days with no white gold Kind Regards, dark star Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Hi Dark Does JB even answer PM's? I would be very surprised if you don't see some snow before month end.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 We are about to see some places in the OV on eastward potentially hit 30 to 35 degrees above normal next week. That's pretty insane and a fairly significant weather event if you ask me. Yet JB seems to gloss over the incredible warmth and focus instead on his silly cfs models and frothing over -4 deviations finally making it to the coast in a couple weeks. A perfect example of why JB is more weenie than met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Per Steve D at NJ PA weather "don't get used to this weather because the arctic invasion is on the way" Per JB at WB "You see the danger here is that so much cold comes that after the fight between the trough pushing east in the means and the ridge off the east coast ( by the way, patterns like this are likely to produce one big storm then a series of lesser storms, each further east as the cold pushes out away from the mean trough axis because of the blocking that forces cold relative to the trough abnormally far south and east) that all that love of the negative NAO turns to cursing cause storms go south of where some of the most vehement snow lovers live.. more Midland to Myrtle Beach. I wont mind seeing that given the snow idea for the winter. but like all of you , be it Chicago, Omaha or Timbucktoo I want a nice thick snowcover like I have had ( and am about to lose) when its cold.But the ECMWF holding on to the Alaska part of the block rather than sticking a trough in there, is a HUGE flip" "Suppose the forecasted ideas now, with the ECMWF having gone to what I was thinking ( remember its no fun having the CFSV2 as your ally, even when right, its still the devil we dont know) are correct. Which would have been the bigger fish that got fried, the fact that the cold came a bit late, backed off for 5-10 days in the east ( not nearly as long in the west and plains where the first part of this is coming) and then came on again longer and stronger, or that the idea it was a non winter carried the day. What are you going to remember at the end of the game. That is not to justify the error, it is is to say the error helped hone in on what was a physically sound idea given the players on the field for this winter. I still think it is. The error in the ace, when you look at it, 3 storms and most notably one, skewing the whole thing even though the two areas I dwealt on were right, in the end helped with the biggest event of the season. That could very well be the case here" "BTW anyone notice how, in spite of the coming warmth, the sneaky little Pacific trough coming through the northeast Thur ( and bringing a west wind blow torch) digs like mad off the east coast as the NAO turns. DO not be surprised if the way next week evolves is the ice box in the plains expands enough to push the storm track to the east coast. I dont believe once the front comes from the west, we will see a storm cut it back...one big storm, then lesser ones further east. Hope everyone on the plains is ready for some good old fashion winter. ..Heck it might even snow in Chicago" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Excellent/promising Saturday write-up by Larry Cosgrove. http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-january-5-2013-at-7-30-p-m-ct-part-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 From Joe D at "After the solstice into the first week of January, the US has been colder. That will change this week but the cold will come on bigger and strong thereafter. Snow has been at a record level for December for the hemisphere (back to 1967)." Even with the warm start, by the holidays the US was over 60% snowcovered - peaking at 66.6%. Snow has been a problem elsewhere.You, as commenters have noted, probably have not seen a mention on TWC or in the mainstream media of these inconvenient facts though rest assured they will be all over any warm temperatures this week in the US during the upcoming pattern transition" I agree with Joe D. that those that believe in global warming....uhh...I mean Climate Change or the inconvenient truth from our buddy Al Gore - will say the greater snow coverage is uh due to global warming - that is my opinion not Joe D. But rest assured the national media will talk a lot about the warmth over the next 10 days as proof of warming/change or inconvenient truths....blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 From the above mentioned LC post today "I foresee the potential for cyclogenesis near Galveston TX, with a grinding, deepening storm moving into GA, then turning northward very close to the Atlantic shoreline from the Carolinas into ME and NS. The timing on this matter is up for grabs, but January 17 - 22 should fit the bill for now. Because of the vivid -NAO signal on the ECMWF and GGEM ensemble packages (remember that a concurrent -EPO ridge complex looks to be in place over or near Alaska), the potential exists for the incoming disturbance to interact or possibly phase with the cAk motherlode. Besides making most of the U.S. very cold, such a scenario implies very strong winds and heavy precipitation across the Old South, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard (to say nothing of snow squalls over the Great Lakes, which could be plentiful with so much cold air and energy across open waters). While there is a fair chance that the Interstate 20 and 95 corridors could see mainly rain in such a situation, snow and ice will not be far away IF what the computer models are telling us is true" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Tweets from JB this evening "The Weatherbell tolling louder than ever US cold spell from Jan 15th on probably will rival 2010 and 2007 cold periods from Jan 15th on..." "US cold shot like Russia in 2010 headed right for the heart of the summer heat....what excuse will we hear then" "In the US plains and East, enjoy the January thaw...a bit early but what comes after from west to east is nasty!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Tweets from JB this evening "The Weatherbell tolling louder than ever US cold spell from Jan 15th on probably will rival 2010 and 2007 cold periods from Jan 15th on..." "US cold shot like Russia in 2010 headed right for the heart of the summer heat....what excuse will we hear then" "In the US plains and East, enjoy the January thaw...a bit early but what comes after from west to east is nasty!" He has to be right one of these days, I sure hope it is this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 From JB today "Its going to get much much colder in the plains and as delightful as it will be further east this weekend, ugly is on the way" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 JB called for brutal cold Dec 15th-Jan15th-all most got was a 7 day cooldown to average and a couple of inches of snow for the lucky folks...one of the worst calls I have seen from him, but he's been awful going back 2 years now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 He has to be right one of these days, I sure hope it is this time.A busted clock is right twice a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 12Z teleconnections don't seem to be in line with any humongous cold air outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 JB called for brutal cold Dec 15th-Jan15th-all most got was a 7 day cooldown to average and a couple of inches of snow for the lucky folks...one of the worst calls I have seen from him, but he's been awful going back 2 years now... Since the split from accuweather he's been brutal on many accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Since the split from accuweather he's been brutal on many accounts.That's true-wonder why? He busted horribly on both summer forecasts 2011 and 2012-his Irene forecast was terrible too (remember skycraper windows were supposed to be blown out in ACY, PHL and NYC) Wow. Just bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 That's true-wonder why? He busted horribly on both summer forecasts 2011 and 2012-his Irene forecast was terrible too (remember skycraper windows were supposed to be blown out in ACY, PHL and NYC) Wow. Just bad. Its been suggested that there were those at AccuWeather who restrained him from going all-out on his extreme thoughts. So, essentially, he probably always had extreme thoughts like these, but never could fully express them until released from Accu's grip. For most, getting released from Accu's grip is a good thing... maybe not for JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Its been suggested that there were those at AccuWeather who restrained him from going all-out on his extreme thoughts. So, essentially, he probably always had extreme thoughts like these, but never could fully express them until released from Accu's grip. For most, getting released from Accu's grip is a good thing... maybe not for JB. You nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Its been suggested that there were those at AccuWeather who restrained him from going all-out on his extreme thoughts. So, essentially, he probably always had extreme thoughts like these, but never could fully express them until released from Accu's grip. For most, getting released from Accu's grip is a good thing... maybe not for JB. Pretty much...but even when JB was on a leash he was still pretty bad outside of Nino or extreme blocking patterns. But hey, there are weenies that eat up every word he has...which is unfortunate because there are dozens of meteorologists here who can out-forecast JB in their sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Latest from JB at WB "But here is what I am leaving you with. I am at peace with the modeling overall and its trend for the rest of the winter. Given the homework we have done, and how much I have tried to show, the idea that this would go to this has been hung onto. In the end if it happens, and big snowstorms and snow and cold come, there will be plenty of people on TV describing the storms coming etc etc . Its the nature of the game. The best Joe and I can do is bring to the table before the fact what we see is going on. There is risk to that.. it can bust. It did the first 20 days of December. It did not bust since then and while this warm up is coming I showed the KMA claiming it would try to happen but reloading the block.. on Dec 10th. And its not like you can't at least see cold is on the chart. With the MJO not yet favorable, chances are we will have another period where its not as cold,, but the NAO is setting itself at the time of the year it becomes dominate. Just like this warm up is 5-10 days, any moderation after what is coming, before the Feb pattern, would be even less. 10days ( I am talking the nation as a whole.. there are places that have not shared in the cold or snow.. but the upside is the pattern being portrayed would make sure you will get yours before this is through, there is no running from the snow shown above as actually having occurred or the fact temps went well below normal for the nation as a whole Dec 21-Jan 5. The period Jan 5-15 will not be near as warm nationally as Dec 1-20.. Its that simple, and behind that any moderation may simply be a way to get moisture into the pattern in some places. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Nice to see Joe L. @ Accuwx (a voice of reason) impressed with the pending cold: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/shiver-me-timbe/3888124 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 @BigJoeBastardi: 1) Denial Dec 20-Jan 5th cold was coming 2) Denial at how cold it got in much of nation. Not everyone lives in NYC. 3) Much colder coming @BigJoeBastardi: Canadian brewing up wed-Fri southern plains to NE snowstorm Thur eve map and precip type. Heck of a way to run a thaw http://t.co/36OwJA9V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Nice to see Joe L. @ Accuwx (a voice of reason) impressed with the pending cold: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/shiver-me-timbe/3888124 Agreed. If anyone has AccuWx Pro, Paul Pastelok is another good read, the guy who took over long-range for JB when he left. Helluva guy, too (as is Joe L). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 From Steve D ....special free update It's going to get cold, but will it get stormy? Paul -- Good Morning everyone! I figure I issue a free preview of what I normally do for Premium Members in terms of the Long Range. Today I want to discuss when I think we'll start to see storms again. We all know at this point that the pattern is turning colder, much colder. However, thus far the models are showing a dry and cold pattern. There is a reason for this and the cause can be found in the Pacific. I have one tried and true measure of predicting an up tick in Sub Tropical jet stream activity, which is the jet stream typically seen around Texas and the Gulf Coast. Basically when convection, that's thunderstorms, are focused around the date line which is 180 degrees longitude, we are to see an increase in activity in the Sub Tropical jet stream. This increase leads to a pattern development with a trough in the Southeast in the Sub Tropical jet steam leading to a higher potential for phasing of the Polar/Arctic jet stream with the Sub Tropical jet stream and thus the potential for winter storms. The way to best determine the location and development of the location of convection is using the Madden Julian Oscillation or MJO. As you can see here the MJO has been in phases 4 through 5 over the past two weeks, thus leading to a lack of convection around the date line and a very week Sub Tropical jet stream. These phases are typically seen with La Nina environments and supports a pattern with a strong Southeast ridge. Sounds familiar, right? But look at where the MJO is going! The MJO is heading towards and looks to be stalling in phase 6 and 7, which supports the development of convection around the date line. This development of convection around the date line strongly supports the potential for a shift of the Southeast ridge off the coast towards the Bahamas, an increased activity of the Sub Tropical jet stream, and a higher potential for East coast storms. I'm using the ECMWF Ensemble guidance as an example, but I also have similar forecasts from other guidance like the GEFS, GFS, UKMET, and other models. Even more interesting the ECWMF Weeklies issued on January 8, 2013 suggest a sustained MJO 7 phase through early February! So given this data and the way the pattern as a whole is setting up with what appears to be a negative EPO, negative AO, and negative NAO pattern configuration; the preliminary data for January 20th on through February 15th suggest a cold and stormy weather pattern for much of the eastern United States. Does this support snow? Well, in a broad sense yes the potential for snow will increase exponentially for all of the Eastern United States. However, I need to stress that each storm will have it's own characteristics and there is no guarantee that your back yard will have snow. I can promise that everyone in the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas will have a shot at some fun and I will continue my exponential hair loss with these models and weather patterns. Read More NY NJ PA Weather Consulting, 2 Revere Place, Freehold, NJ 07728, USA Unsubscribe | Change Subscriber Options Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Both JB and DT are woofing about this as coldest since 94 (JB) or in a few decades (DT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 @BigJoeBastardi: GFS has most severe cold shot now since 94 winter. Trending even colder. New 288 hour is as severe as you see it http://t.co/Gk0ivacz @BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF in support of pattern ideas. GFS is showing where this is going, ECMWF going to unload biggest US cold shot since 94 winter also @BigJoeBastardi: You dont dismiss a model that is showing what happened after other great stratwarm events. This stratwarm is similar to 1985 @BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF going to show same except its cold with the shot before in the 7-10.Its amazing how many people dont see we do have winter this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Great write up - highly recommended from Bobby at EWPA blogs - "True winter will return with a vengeance and stick around this time" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Yes, EWPA does a great job. Sent from my Transformer Prime TF201 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The latest from everyone's favorite from WeatherBell...he seems to feel many of you (well at least Ray) will scoff but enjoy.... "remember the stratwarm this looked most like was the 85 event, that lead to the outbreak when Pres Reagan was inaugurated the 2cnd time. Yesterday I had 9 as my lowed temp in NYC through 26th, , but sub zero in Chicago and Indianapolis and Des Moines, -10 MSP . After I study Euro this aft I will have different numbers, This looks like we will be colder than that, and the GFS implies sub 0 days in the areas I have zero mins and even a threat of 0 for a low in the park. You may scoff, but the MJO is going to collapse and with it the resistance to the cold Amazing, California citrus threatened.. will this pattern go after the other 2 areas also. Preparing winter update. Out later this evening" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 From JB last evening " I have NYC at 6 at its coldest the next 15 day, Chicago -10 now. That is not nearly as cold as what this implies, but much colder than what alot of people have been portraying this as. In the worst case, as warm as it was today, it maybe as cold, perhaps 2 or 3 days in the midwest or lakes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Adam Joseph on Channel 6 just said that we could see the coldest temperatures in two decades about 10 days out -- talk about swinging for the fences! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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