ChescoWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Some JB musings as we count down the days till Phillies spring training after another Eagles debacle... He sees for 5-10 days mild air will flood Canada but US snow cover will retard warming until the 11-15 day period -however once to the 11-15 day period.. the cold will have reloaded in Canada and this time it's supported by a stratwarm event. His big key down the road is Canada gets brutrally cold day 11-20 and that will press into the US and then overwhelm the pattern..."could get ugly day 20-40... almost like what happened in the 20 day period starting 20 December was a precursor to what is going to happen later in Jan and Feb" He brings up the legendary winter of 1977-78 a winter that if you lived in NYC and PHL you had little snow before the 15th of Jan. but if he's right, its nothing compared to what should happen later based on history of past patterns like this....he of course expects skepticism from folks where it has not snowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Per JB ukmet at 144 has what he worries about later this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Per JB ukmet at 144 has what he worries about later this week... So he is pulling at straws? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Some JB musings as we count down the days till Phillies spring training after another Eagles debacle... He sees for 5-10 days mild air will flood Canada but US snow cover will retard warming until the 11-15 day period -however once to the 11-15 day period.. the cold will have reloaded in Canada and this time it's supported by a stratwarm event. His big key down the road is Canada gets brutrally cold day 11-20 and that will press into the US and then overwhelm the pattern..."could get ugly day 20-40... almost like what happened in the 20 day period starting 20 December was a precursor to what is going to happen later in Jan and Feb" He brings up the legendary winter of 1977-78 a winter that if you lived in NYC and PHL you had little snow before the 15th of Jan. but if he's right, its nothing compared to what should happen later based on history of past patterns like this....he of course expects skepticism from folks where it has not snowed Paul: I have been a big JB fan but I think I have had enough. He has been kicking the cold down the calendar since October. Soon, we will be in March and the brutal cold will not have shown and we will get to hear about having the pattern correct even though the results were not. Oh, and his son will be just as bad. During this last event he was calling for 20-1 ratios. Carmen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Carmen I think a lot of folks feel that way....do u subscribe to WB? Sounds like they are doing well but I would think his energy clients may not appreciate a couple more debacles like December Happy New Year Paul: I have been a big JB fan but I think I have had enough. He has been kicking the cold down the calendar since October. Soon, we will be in March and the brutal cold will not have shown and we will get to hear about having the pattern correct even though the results were not. Oh, and his son will be just as bad. During this last event he was calling for 20-1 ratios. Carmen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi: Like I said in previous tweet, this winter should be synoptic lab if all this pans out the holiday slide into winter appetizer for later @BigJoeBastardi: Very strange . 500 mb pattern favors stronger lower miss valley development, and what I am thinking. Model says no http://t.co/CMz3RCzo @BigJoeBastardi: Rare to see such major displacement of cold pool in dead of winter at 10mb. Great challenge for mets! http://t.co/hBHjbNZd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Garrett is worse than Joe. At least Joe understands basics of meteorology but has a huge extreme bias. Garrett is like crossing Henry M and five weenies with JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Garrett is worse than Joe. At least Joe understands basics of meteorology but has a huge extreme bias. Garrett is like crossing Henry M and five weenies with JB. You got that right. He got a little defensive when i told him there was no way he would see 20-1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 @nynjpaweather: Variable clouds and falling temperature start 2012: 01/01/13 9:00 AM As an arctic cold front slo... http://t.co/H5E0orG4 @BigJoeBastardi: Biggest New Years Day Snow cover for US since at least 1996! and evil 66.6%..if 7 years ago u touted no more snow http://t.co/U1RslcwW @BigJoeBastardi: 3 of the last 4 years now Christmas to New Years snowcover well above normal for US. Global snowcover now well above http://t.co/nY9dMC0X @BigJoeBastardi: We sure hear about it when its below, which is part of NATURAL VARIABILITY, just like the above is now.. Natural.. not man made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 jb.....starting to lay the framework for his revised forecast that winter ends after this week in the east! Now how will that be for a change from his winter forecast....ouch "The ECWMF weeklies last night, if correct, would mean my ideas would be blown out of the water. There is simply no sugar coating what it is saying. winter for much of the US would be over" Now he is not quite ready to call winter cancel....he does not model worship but the euro has him very concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 jb.....starting to lay the framework for his revised forecast that winter ends after this week in the east! Now how will that be for a change from his winter forecast....ouch "The ECWMF weeklies last night, if correct, would mean my ideas would be blown out of the water. There is simply no sugar coating what it is saying. winter for much of the US would be over" Now he is not quite ready to call winter cancel....he does not model worship but the euro has him very concerned wtf.....my wife gave me a new SNOW SHOVEL for xmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 JB goes winter hot im speechless next up on deck DT...what the fook happened to his bitter cold january QBO flip? let's hope there will be some winter to end january-first half of february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 suicide watches up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 jb.....starting to lay the framework for his revised forecast that winter ends after this week in the east! Now how will that be for a change from his winter forecast....ouch"The ECWMF weeklies last night, if correct, would mean my ideas would be blown out of the water. There is simply no sugar coating what it is saying. winter for much of the US would be over" Now he is not quite ready to call winter cancel....he does not model worship but the euro has him very concerned He just came in with this: 12z CFSV2 45 day run as opposite as you can possibly be from ECMWF weekly forecast from Monday. Amazing model mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 JB stylings/paraphrases from his discussion today "Let me explain something. I am not throwing in the towel on my forecast. I am leveling with you as to how rattled the ECMWF weeklies had me, cause I know the prowess of the model. I say what I mean... and reading between the lines is not an option with me. If I said, okay thats it I quit, fine" JB is sticking with his idea so that is the forecast.Until he can total it up at the end....for the winter his take is that winter was 10 days late in arriving but it is here. Winter backs off a bit in the areas that had the holiday fun, but it comes roaring into the west and plains and then fights east. Why? We have a great strat warm event going on - blocking developing - the first rapid drop SOI in December since 2002 which was another winter that everyone kept writing off. His point is that there is reason to be skeptical but there are alot of physical drivers that say opposite He thinks the 12z GFS lost its mind and if it is right, by the time we are at mid month, it would take a super thaw to pull us out. His forecast is not as cold as that in the east in the 11-15 day period - but in the plains he is cold - and in the west it's not cold enough. Ultimately he says that still puts alot of the nation in something other than throw in the towel mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 The bottom line is that the east is warming up faster than the rest of the nation and if you live in any of the big cities and like snow.....good luck!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 The bottom line is that the east is warming up faster than the rest of the nation and if you live in any of the big cities and like snow.....good luck!!! lol what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 lol what He's been on this crusade of his for awhile... just ignore him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 New products developed by Dr. Ryan Maue... and again, you don't have to like JB or can tune him out or whatever, but their model products are becoming very good. This is an example of pinpoint forecasts that are now available off of extraction data, and runs for any ICAO coded location off of the EPS deterministic, GFS, and GEFS extraction data for a given location. I chose ABE as a point of reference off of the 00z ECMWF/ensembles... you can also choose accumulated precip as one of the options. For those who don't have access to SFC temps off of the ECM or precip totals, this is a good resource. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 3, 2013 Author Share Posted January 3, 2013 Holy crap, those are awesome. How much does the model suite cost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Holy crap, those are awesome. How much does the model suite cost? from what i remember seeing i think its cheaper than vista which is 30 bucks a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Holy crap, those are awesome. How much does the model suite cost? Per month is $16.99 and yearly is $160... and we have a discounted rate through us (this is in no way self-promotion - just trying to save you $$$) by following the following link... http://www.weatherbell.com/register/?referral_code=EPAWA Basically refunds $7.00 to your card for a monthly subscription and $20 off of the yearly subscription by using that code. Like I said - you can tune out JB if you want, but the model suite is definitely getting very good thanks to Dr. Maue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Agree - I posted a couple of the Euro deterministic's for PTW last week - very nice tool! Per month is $16.99 and yearly is $160... and we have a discounted rate through us (this is in no way self-promotion - just trying to save you $$$) by following the following link...http://www.weatherbell.com/register/?referral_code=EPAWA Basically refunds $7.00 to your card for a monthly subscription and $20 off of the yearly subscription by using that code. Like I said - you can tune out JB if you want, but the model suite is definitely getting very good thanks to Dr. Maue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 JB today A new kelvin wave is on the move unlike last time it'ss cold now - after 10 to 15 days of cold....we are in the last 5 days of eastern cold.. but by the time its getting warm, the cold will be invading from the west an by day 10 they are below normal and the pushing of cold eastbound starts. "The pattern could turn into a winter weathers lover delight as the trough sends pieces out while cold air pushes, east one dumping snow and ice on the northwest side. The plains first perhaps with a big storm to the lakes, but then wave after wave from the gulf to the mid and north atlantic states may lay down a carpet for the coming of the emperor of the north. This is strikingly similar to what happened in 1985... where we had a stratwarm that completely dismantled to cold pool at 10mb" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 It's a shame that Maue is in bed with JB. Those graphics are killer but I can't give a dime of my $$$ to a group that employs JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 It's a shame that Maue is in bed with JB. Those graphics are killer but I can't give a dime of my $$$ to a group that employs JB. He is a smart businessman that is all, I guarantee JB brings in a lot more people than he turns off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 He is a smart businessman that is all, I guarantee JB brings in a lot more people than he turns off. Any snake oil salesman can sell snow hype along I-95 in the winter and profit from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Any snake oil salesman can sell snow hype along I-95 in the winter and profit from it. Well he is doing a damn good job of profiting off of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Some musings from JB today He started off asking questions about the rumors of snow as thing of the past.....northern hemisphere did not get the message. December snowfall breaks record .. 1980. This winter has a chance to turn out, for the nation as a whole, as memorable as 09-10, 10-11 and perhaps even more so. But unlike the last two where major population centers were hit early, its been the "secondary cities" as he calls them because they dont attrack the attention of and NYC or Chicago or DC that have been hit. He says its a matter of when, not if in his opinion it gets cold. So what the ECMWF may be seeing and could be right on is that the current Kelvin wave progresses in a way that the time is limited for its trough east of Hawaii, and we back away until we get the wave far enough east to draw the negative in the eastern atlantic ( eastern version neg NAO) back west and then the height falls in Alaska it sees that the US models have no idea about so far, southeast. What would happen is we get cold come in, we level off and later, for Feb , go wild, as that would probably lock it in...But what will happen is one way or the otther, the wave will get us to where we have been the past 2 weeks and this time the block will be ready to deliver. Once there it locks for Feb, but snaps for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Sorry for the delay in posting updates from JB - didn't realize the appetite for him is remains quite strong....not ignoring your emails but here is the latest thoughts from JB today mainly focusing on the midwest and west but hints to his thougths per his tweet today " ECMWF ensembles bow to GFS with Alaska ridge situation day 10-15 - rare win for GFS if right" He sees precip as still rather sparse in the areas in the plains we need it, but his look at the new ECMWF indicates a major southern plains to great lakes snowstorm starting to brew for the week of the 12th with more cold air in the lakes and for the interior NE - more than the GFS has as a quite chilly high slips by to the north. He sees the plains cold next weekend then it really goes wild after that....for a lot more real estate..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.