allman15 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 people are trolling DT...KNOCK IT OFF...its only his FIRST GUESS.......wait for his 8th guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Someone needs to teach DT how to contour! Haha No way South Jersey gets > 4" remember..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 people are trolling DT...KNOCK IT OFF...its only his FIRST GUESS.......wait for his 8th guess is that his revised 1st guess on the 8th time? or his actual 8th call? it gets confusing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Latest thoughts from NJ PA weather (non-paid) "An area of low pressure will produce light to moderate snowfall starting tomorrow morning around 6 AM to 9 AM and continuing through tomorrow evening between 8 PM and 10 PM. Snowfall accumulations will vary with 1 to 3 inches along the immediate coast due to some mixing of rain, 2 to 4 inches elsewhere. A burst of moderate snowfall will lead to the potential for an isolated amount of up to 6 inches over southeastern Pennsylvania through central New Jersey. Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 30′s over the interior and mid 30′s along the coast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 is that his revised 1st guess on the 8th time? or his actual 8th call? it gets confusing... not sure, but his LAST CLAL usually comes out midway or later through the event...NONE OF THEM ARE A FROECAST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 not sure, but his LAST CLAL usually comes out midway or later through the event...NONE OF THEM ARE A FROECAST! And then he bashes other mets forecasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here's DT's 1st call.. Not to be confused with his 1st guess from the other day* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ^ LOL! So the Atlantic Ocean should expect 4" out of this? Sounds reasonable (he needs to proof his maps before posting them) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ^ LOL! So the Atlantic Ocean should expect 4" out of this? Sounds reasonable (he needs to proof his maps before posting them) THAT IS FOR THE ATLNATIC YOU INGORNAT FOOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 THAT IS FOR THE ATLNATIC YOU INGORNAT FOOL! 4-inch waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here is our final call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Great map Bobby - thanks! - even though you have me missing the 3" to 5" by 6 miles!! Here is our final call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Great map Bobby - thanks! - even though you have me missing the 3" to 5" by 6 miles!! Going to be very close... not too fond of these maps I saw floating around that has Philly in the heaviest snows. I-95 corridor is going to have melting issues looks like, but they do get into SOME. Soundings are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Pretty cool that issue your forecasts 6 hours before you issue them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Pretty cool that issue your forecasts 6 hours before you issue them. Nice catch... it was meant to go out this evening and never changed the time stamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here's my call. I meant to say rain may begin as snow along the coast (but to be honest it could end that way as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here is our final call... I like that NJ is expanding and drifting into the Atlantic...that should finally get us solidly into the ".50 contour(j/k) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here's my call. I meant to say rain may begin as snow along the coast (but to be honest it could end that way as well). I like it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Some paraphrase musings from JB earlier this evening on WB Going with heaviest snows (4"+) for most of the areas N and W of all the big 95 cities. He says he's a little nervous around DC it has been wanting to snow there and that could turn into a fiasco where there is more than I have ( his snow line is south of the city.) He sees this as a south of the last storm as far as heavier snows go - he thinks SE NE area could see amounts really crank at the last minute. He wants to remind folks that there is good with the bad in the ideas/forecasts he laid out. He doubts people (not that anyone on americanwx ever doubted him) 10 days before Christmas where giving his Nov 22nd forecast a chance to verify....he admits that technically it was a bust....it was more than he forecasted 60-65%. He is a bit defensive talking about his amazement over some of the comments over missing details on the storms.... storms that a few days before people had no idea were coming or were driving to the lakes. He takes credit and mentions you had to know the pattern if you were predicting for the biggest holiday period of the year, that kind of event - meteorologically a tougher call than Sandy. He makes a point that when flips to cold start ( around the holidays) -look out, it may back off for while but odds are the bulk of the following 2 winter months are wild weather wise. Moving forward, the period after New Years is very interesting. he thinks we have a shot at phasing over the east and the reason is that the southwest system should kick out faster than the models are saying given the pattern in the Pacific - he says if he didn't have the models telling him that this would not happen, he would think that there is a big storm out of the western gulf and right up the east coast with plenty of arctic air later next week - as for arctic air that is coming gangbusters in the 6-10 day period - and despite a warm up that he sees coming it is simply a reload to more cold down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 1" in the city, 2-3" NW (and I'm probably wrong up here but I didn't want to tank the totals too much), 3-5" Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 If the phase of this storm is going to happen early than you would want to see a pivot in the precipitation shield to the south. Saturday December 29, 2012 6:01 nynjpaweather 6:00 Steven DiMartino@nynjpaweather Now, this separation is expected right now. It's only 6 AM. But the next few hours will tell us a lot about this storm. Saturday December 29, 2012 6:00 nynjpaweather 6:00 Steven DiMartino@nynjpaweather We can clearly see how the two disturbances are still separated on the radar. radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loo… Saturday December 29, 2012 6:00 nynjpaweather 5:54 Steven DiMartino@nynjpaweather Pressure rapidly falling off SC coast this hour as coastal starts to take control. 1.usa.gov/TNjzvp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 JB post from today - still seeing a potential storm on the east coast late this week (I know you are all surprised!!) "I don't believe a trough will lock off in the rockies with a trough coming into the west coast and believe the threat of a major storm on the east coas next week with severe cold is still on the table, So 5 days from now, we can look back at this and laugh, or look at it and see how close it gets" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I didn't know that low 30's for highs along I-95 were "severe" cold. 1977, 1978, February 1979, Januaries 1981, 1982, 1984, and January 1985 all say "hi" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I didn't know that low 30's for highs along I-95 were "severe" cold. 1977, 1978, February 1979, Januaries 1981, 1982, 1984, and January 1985 all say "hi" Unfortunately these days that is considered "severe" cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Unfortunately these days that is considered "severe" cold. Only because of Bastardi and some of the media playing up low 30's as "arctic" or even "very" cold for highs. Even in the trash heap of last winter we got to 33 or below in Philly 4 times last January. It happens a few times even in shi**y winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Only because of Bastardi and some of the media playing up low 30's as "arctic" or even "very" cold for highs. Even in the trash heap of last winter we got to 33 or below in Philly 4 times last January. It happens a few times even in shi**y winters. I know what you are saying, but i grew up in this area my whole life and it was a hell of alot colder when i was a kid than it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I think he was mentioning gfs missing how cold it will be on Friday.....believe he was saying 5 degrees in NYC?....of course not a forecast just his "musings" Only because of Bastardi and some of the media playing up low 30's as "arctic" or even "very" cold for highs. Even in the trash heap of last winter we got to 33 or below in Philly 4 times last January. It happens a few times even in shi**y winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Last "very" cold winter month we've had was FEB 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 JB post from today - still seeing a potential storm on the east coast late this week (I know you are all surprised!!) "I don't believe a trough will lock off in the rockies with a trough coming into the west coast and believe the threat of a major storm on the east coas next week with severe cold is still on the table, So 5 days from now, we can look back at this and laugh, or look at it and see how close it gets" thanks for the info.....i almost got to use my SHOVEL yesterday for the first time in over a year but rain washed away my 0.2 of SNOWPACK in NE Phila........JB rocks......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 you need a shovel for something other than snow when following JB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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