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Vendor Forecast Discussion


am19psu

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Sorry Chubbs...I would never insult a professional on this site. I guess I am different from many on here as I value all professionals and their insights...but I can't make others show this respect....but it is kind of sad to see IMHO.....

Paul

 

He doesn't act like a professional though. He berated NWS on the ice storm and prior snow forecast. Yet his call for blizzard conditions on I95 today is far far worse.

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chubbs clearly he never used the "b" word in any discussion that I saw during the past several days....but let's not let facts get in the way of a good story....

quote name="chubbs" post="2908439" timestamp="1395795817"]He doesn't act like a professional though. He berated NWS on the ice storm and prior snow forecast. Yet his call for blizzard conditions on I95 today is far far worse.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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chubbs clearly he never used the "b" word in any discussion that I saw during the past several days....but let's not let facts get in the way of a good story....

quote name="chubbs" post="2908439" timestamp="1395795817"]He doesn't act like a professional though. He berated NWS on the ice storm and prior snow forecast. Yet his call for blizzard conditions on I95 today is far far worse.

Sent from my iPad

From your sunday PM post

 

"One of the two should be the stronger of the two systems. If its the northwest side, then the blizzard is raging well back into the I-95 corridor. If its the southeast, its obviously further east. It likely to be the system on the northwest side and here is why."

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Sigh....that was NOT ever a forecast....that was a model analysis hence the "if" ....as of 3 days ago he had PHL at around 6"....not a blizzard. I totally get why u dislike him but many of us find him well worth the money...I would suggest you ignore the vendor thread in the future....as the NWS certainly and Mt Holly NWS in particular is the best source for weather....but many folks like me have enjoyed JBs tremendous insights into weather for many years.

quote name="chubbs" post="2908469" timestamp="1395796646"]From your sunday PM post

"One of the two should be the stronger of the two systems. If its the northwest side, then the blizzard is raging well back into the I-95 corridor. If its the southeast, its obviously further east. It likely to be the system on the northwest side and here is why."

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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Sigh....that was NOT ever a forecast....that was a model analysis hence the "if" ....as of 3 days ago he had PHL at around 6"....not a blizzard. I totally get why u dislike him but many of us find him well worth the money...I would suggest you ignore the vendor thread in the future....as the NWS certainly and Mt Holly NWS in particular is the best source for weather....but many folks like me have enjoyed JBs tremendous insights into weather for many years.

quote name="chubbs" post="2908469" timestamp="1395796646"]From your sunday PM post

"One of the two should be the stronger of the two systems. If its the northwest side, then the blizzard is raging well back into the I-95 corridor. If its the southeast, its obviously further east. It likely to be the system on the northwest side and here is why."

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Paul - No need to lecture. We'll agree to disagree. I have to go out and shovel the 6".

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If anything he should have more careful with his words, even so I don't think this undermines his credibility. 

 

Sigh....that was NOT ever a forecast....that was a model analysis hence the "if" ....as of 3 days ago he had PHL at around 6"....not a blizzard. I totally get why u dislike him but many of us find him well worth the money...I would suggest you ignore the vendor thread in the future....as the NWS certainly and Mt Holly NWS in particular is the best source for weather....but many folks like me have enjoyed JBs tremendous insights into weather for many years.

quote name="chubbs" post="2908469" timestamp="1395796646"]From your sunday PM post

"One of the two should be the stronger of the two systems. If its the northwest side, then the blizzard is raging well back into the I-95 corridor. If its the southeast, its obviously further east. It likely to be the system on the northwest side and here is why."




Sent from my iPad
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Sigh....that was NOT ever a forecast....that was a model analysis hence the "if" ....as of 3 days ago he had PHL at around 6"....not a blizzard. I totally get why u dislike him but many of us find him well worth the money...I would suggest you ignore the vendor thread in the future....as the NWS certainly and Mt Holly NWS in particular is the best source for weather....but many folks like me have enjoyed JBs tremendous insights into weather for many years.

quote name="chubbs" post="2908469" timestamp="1395796646"]From your sunday PM post

"One of the two should be the stronger of the two systems. If its the northwest side, then the blizzard is raging well back into the I-95 corridor. If its the southeast, its obviously further east. It likely to be the system on the northwest side and here is why."

6" most certainly can be a blizzard as the amount has nothing to do with the classification.

He stated "it likely to be the system on NW side and here is why". THAT is indeed a forecast. Chubbs is on point.

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I'm almost ashamed to mention it, but JB says good chance of rain ending as snow Sunday evening/night just to the NW of a line from 

NE MD to NW of PHL to NYC.   Also definite area of snow from NE OH to western NY occurring earlier (that I'll believe).

 

Regardless, a crappy next few days is assured.

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If models are to be believed, it will have great difficulty sleeting or snowing in PHL or even ABE.  Guidance is keeping temperatures aloft there too warm.  I did check areas further south and its handling the colder air there well, so one can give some credence to it.

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JB posted long range forecast this morning - for this forum:

Summer - temp 0 - +2, precip 80-100% of normal

Fall - temp 0 - -2, precip didn't say but analogs would suggest 100-120% of normal

Winter - temp -2 - -4, precip 120-140% of normal, snowfall 133-167% of normal (>-4 line for temp across central PA and west)

 

See Nino 3.4 peaking at +1-1.5 during summer then declining toward neutral during winter

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JB posted long range forecast this morning - for this forum:

Summer - temp 0 - +2, precip 80-100% of normal

Fall - temp 0 - -2, precip didn't say but analogs would suggest 100-120% of normal

Winter - temp -2 - -4, precip 120-140% of normal, snowfall 133-167% of normal (>-4 line for temp across central PA and west)

 

See Nino 3.4 peaking at +1-1.5 during summer then declining toward neutral during winter

 

0 to +2 is a very generous summer temp spread, +2 would be a very toasty 1991, 1999, 2002, 2011 type summer from a temp standpoint

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