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am19psu

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Models 1 - JB - 0

 

I don't follow JB per say, although I appreciate Paul's posting his thoughts, and the snow weenie part of me enjoys the at times dramatic presentation of his outlook even if I do take it with a grain of salt.

And I had never seen jellyfish used as a verb before.

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Per JB today

 

"This time modeling is trending north with the axis of heaviest snow in the east, while it remains fairly consistent through the midwest. But this is still tricky. The cold air is AGAIN arriving as the storm comes. I dont recall a winter like this so with so many events that had a day above normal, followed by a major winter storm in a given area. But the tricky problem here is this. The later it waits, the more the cold will push and shove the snow/ice south. Interestingly enough like the last duo where a storm got shoved south, and then another storm came and attacked on the back side for the Carolinas, there is another storm that is snowing up in the 8-10 day period. And there is simply no way that any warmup I see from the the Missssippi east ( days above normal) looks like it can last morre than a couple of days. I guess the further south one goes, the greater the chance it lasts for 3-5 days, but the overall pattern is not relenting.

 

I right now I think the best call is for the areas between I-70 and I-80/90 from the Miss eastward to the I-99 corridor of central Pa as the target of several inches of snow with local amounts in areas like Chicago and Cleveland like targets for heavier amounts. This storm NYC will beat DC, but this very tricky. The real core looks to shift into the I-90 corridor once to Pa east with I-80 the south edge of the 3 inches of snow.. But if it comes south to the Mason Dixon line, it would not surprise me."

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So is he terminating NYNJPA weather?

As soon as I read it, I quickly posted it here. I'll see what I can find out.

Edit: No, he will still operate NYNJPAWEATHER. EPAWA members will be able to access steps site also. I thought for sure he would close it down if he joined epawa, conflict of interest (pun). Smart move on his part.

The moves will allow all regional forecasters within EPAWA to forecast daily for the areas that they reside. The website will soon reflect the partnership with both EPAWA and NYNJPAWEATHER - and will have direct access to Steve's website through the EPAWA page. Steve will also join our forecasters in providing the text/email alerts as part of the upcoming My Pocket Meteorologist Severe™ program, launching March 15th. Please join us in welcoming Steve as the newest addition to our rapidly growing business!

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As soon as I read it, I quickly posted it here. I'll see what I can find out.

Edit: No, he will still operate NYNJPAWEATHER. EPAWA members will be able to access steps site also. I thought for sure he would close it down if he joined epawa, conflict of interest (pun). Smart move on his part.

The moves will allow all regional forecasters within EPAWA to forecast daily for the areas that they reside. The website will soon reflect the partnership with both EPAWA and NYNJPAWEATHER - and will have direct access to Steve's website through the EPAWA page. Steve will also join our forecasters in providing the text/email alerts as part of the upcoming My Pocket Meteorologist Severe™ program, launching March 15th. Please join us in welcoming Steve as the newest addition to our rapidly growing business!

I have been thinking of opening a weather consulting company. Seems anyone can get into the field.

Do some marketing, create a website, hire a few people and boom you have the company. Make a few charts and sell services.

I figure 10 -20 people needed to get up and running.

Terrible names for both Steve's company and that other company.

Need something that holds weight.

Weather Balls llc. We have your daily euro runs to give your retail company the data you need to increase sales.

Planweatherlitics llc. My 2 hour guaranteed forecast will have your plow truck making mo money mo money. Call 1 800 big snow to review pricing options. Basic email packages to live geek to geek discussions are options. We plan weather, you plan your plow routes. Mo money guaranteed.

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From JB today

 

"Obviously with 500 mb patterns like this in the 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15, the threat of winter beating back spring as we are about to see another classic example of is continuing and I like the St Pattys day, or close, threat as I think that will gain more and more steam as we get closer. Remember this system on the GFS was forecast to be a dud at first cause it was leaving so much energy in the southwest. The ECMWF is still all over the place on the trough, but its brother the control run looks the way it did with this about a week out

The 500 shows the full phasing I am concerned about rather than the scatter shot of the ECWMF because of its speed problems and the GFS lack of understanding there is a southern branch here, even if it does originate in the south, but gets there from the northwest

So I like this second threat as much as I liked this one here which is forecast to bomb out to 976 over New England. Now that is not the 956 we saw with the March 1993 storm and for the rational, I was bringing that up to show you why I thought this would be a grand planetary wave example of trough that lined up from Greenland to FLorida and look a -300 plus meter anomaly over the mid atlantic is not all that shabby a call from a week out"

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As in off-camera...make up and other "enhancements" can work wonders on this side of the tv screen.

And if you watch carefully those enhancements seem to vary in size from from day to day...

just saying..don't mean to offend....up for debate I'm sure.

wonder why more women don't post here...never been able to figure it out...
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DT on 3/25-26 threat:

**UPDATE ON MARCH 25-26 POSSIBLE EAST COAST STORM/ LOW**

The operational regular European model last night decided to show a somewhat different SOLUTION to the threat of March 25-26. The operational Euro showed 2 Low... one... Low coming through the Ohio valley and a 2nd Low reforming off he MD coast.

In the weather biz this solution of event is refer to as a MILLER B. That term refers to an area of LOW pressure which initially comes up through the Midwest or the Tennessee Valley and reforms or jumps over Virginia to the Maryland / New Jersey Coast. These sorts of systems invariably always produce little if any significant snow over NC VA MD DEL but often can produce significant snowfall further up into the Northern Middle Atlantic and New England states.

On the other hand the European ENSEMBLE-- see 1st IMAGE-- is much further south and SP continues to show significant coastal storm which if the model is accurate would produce a significant snowfall from North Carolina up into Southern New England on March 25 into the 26th

The 0z GFS not surprisingly continues to show a huge amounts of total incompetence at this range. However the 6z GFS and GFS ensembles have turn significantly more bullish with this system and show a much more organize and stronger LOW off the Southeast U.S. Coast. (SECOND image). This is a huge step in the direction towards the European solution and is another indication that the European ensemble solution of a big East Coast storm may be valid.

The third image is the operational Canadian and Canadian ENSEMBLE. This to is a major shift in the operational Canadian model and and in the Canadian ensembles ... and a big step towards the European solution

SUMMARY ... the threat is still there but it is NOT a yet a good probability event. IF IF.... this systems turns out to be a MILLER B just paint the dry slot over NC VA MD now.
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no storm threads till 5 days away from any potential according to moderator Sickman still a few days away from any 5 day potential - lets try and play by the rules this time around including if a thread is opened in the future

 

Maybe I'll call Sickman in here to "expand" this 5-day rule.

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