Heisy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Steve D and NYNJPA weather is not buying the 18z GFS or the 12z Euro....his tweet within the past hour is "The extreme suppressed solution on the 12z Euro appears a bit extreme given the latest obs...they don't match up. So clearly this storm is going to be more robust than the 12z Euro suggested" goes on to say the likely solution will be a more robust storm from NYC/LI and on south And I thought I was a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 wfmz ha what i think is an optimistic yet realistic accumulation map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 EPAWA with their final call... http://epawablogs.com/weather-alert-maps/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 EPAWA with their final call... http://epawablogs.com/weather-alert-maps/ Capturefc.PNG So much for their call for the ABE seasonal total to be broken with this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I guess Steve D should have waited for the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So much for their call for the ABE seasonal total to be broken with this storm... They have tamed their excitement a bit lately with their alerts ....still a good read though for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I guess Steve D should have waited for the Euro... Capturesd.PNG Apparently no one is getting 4-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Apparently no one is getting 4-5 inches. so much for my day off tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 so much for my day off tomorrow I thought Ray was alluding to the fact that zone 1 is 1" to 4" and zone 2 is 5" to 10". According to the map you're in the 5 to 10, if it were to verify you could have the day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought Ray was alluding to the fact that zone 1 is 1" to 4" and zone 2 is 5" to 10". According to the map you're in the 5 to 10, if it were to verify you could have the day off. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Bingo Still not as bad as DT's first guess map that went straight from 1-3" to 8-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As an aside, I try to restrain my criticism for actual forecasts. (Try being the key word ). It hasn't happened yet, can't say its wrong til it is. Model analysis is another story. When you can't/don't notice that certain snow map products are producing poor results based on a simple review of soundings, then I kinda take issue with it. If you can't diagnose precip type from model data, how can you possibly issue a good forecast where mixed precip is involved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Bingo All righty then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought Ray was alluding to the fact that zone 1 is 1" to 4" and zone 2 is 5" to 10". According to the map you're in the 5 to 10, if it were to verify you could have the day off. Thanks for the catch...I must be snow blind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As an aside, I try to restrain my criticism for actual forecasts. (Try being the key word ). It hasn't happened yet, can't say its wrong til it is. Model analysis is another story. When you can't/don't notice that certain snow map products are producing poor results based on a simple review of soundings, then I kinda take issue with it. If you can't diagnose precip type from model data, how can you possibly issue a good forecast where mixed precip is involved? That's why you are where you are and they are on fb....ps I like the old Ray better...take no prisoners and keep our snow goggles focused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That's why you are where you are and they are on fb....ps I like the old Ray better...take no prisoners and keep our snow goggles focused. This is the old me If you look closely at my posts in the past few months, if not years, you'll notice I mostly comment on model interpretations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Obviously most weather outlets look like they will bust badly here, but what I cannot stand is when they say it was because the models sucked and try to hide from criticism. Yes, the models did terribly with this storm, but YOU put out the forecast. If the models suck, then don't forecast 8-16" three days out. What's even worse is when they change their forecasts mid-storm and then take the credit. If you make a forecast you can have the credit when it verifies but you have to take the blame when it busts. Otherwise, don't forecast at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks for the catch...I must be snow blind How about a pair of snow goggles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yep, tomorrow is going to be a bad day for meteorologist in the eyes of the public, all because of a select few hypesters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yep, tomorrow is going to be a bad day for meteorologist in the eyes of the public, all because of a select few hypesters. You can't blame it on a "select few hypsters". Even Mt. Holly was calling 8-10 area wide yesterday for the CWA, with plumes over 10 and more south. Their latest map from this morning has southern NJ in the 10-14, and philly proper in the 6-10 area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You can't blame it on a "select few hypsters". Even Mt. Holly was calling 8-10 area wide yesterday for the CWA, with plumes over 10 and more south. This is true. I had 5-10 for TTN on Friday. And I barely hung onto it yesterday. Sure looks like that will bust badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Forecasting the weather is hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 How about a pair of snow goggles? snow-goggles.jpg Lolz, Yeah right. This is what happens jumping from forum to forum site to site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Forecasting the weather is hard. Almost everyone had to reduce and re-assess. For those calling bust, step up to the plate and make a call 2/3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steinweather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 @BigJoeBastardi: Heh Polar Vortexians, Gota new one for you in case a major eastern storm on 13th like 93. The grand planetary wave!http://t.co/nMEnoTQhnK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 JB continues to highlight the "similarities" ......but not a forecast of a storm next week. He says anyone looking at the pattern will see that it is similar to March 1993 - he said he is NOT forecasting that type of storm.... but a potential big ticket item is on the table. He says he is sure other folks will begin talking about it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 JB continues to highlight the "similarities" ......but not a forecast of a storm next week. He says anyone looking at the pattern will see that it is similar to March 1993 - he said he is NOT forecasting that type of storm.... but a potential big ticket item is on the table. He says he is sure other folks will begin talking about it..... While it's unlikely any of us will again see a storm with the size, strength and overall effects on the eastern U.S. of the March 1993 storm...it certainly is possible we see a fairly potent storm next week to send winter out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 JB continues to highlight the "similarities" ......but not a forecast of a storm next week. He says anyone looking at the pattern will see that it is similar to March 1993 - he said he is NOT forecasting that type of storm.... but a potential big ticket item is on the table. He says he is sure other folks will begin talking about it..... Sounds like what I like to refer to as a "I will serve no fries before their time" discussion. Narly Dude.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Weather Sentry (AKA Weather DTN) is picking up the storm now for 3/13-3/14. Forecasting a 2-6 in event as of right now. I don't know how or what they base their forecast off of (models, guidance, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 From JB late this AM "I do not jellyfish forecasts. If I work at something, I will wait till convinced I am wrong to change it. Therefore before I shift the snow south from my current axis, which is close to the ECWMF 2 days ago and the NAM at 06z and JMA last night, I need to be convinced You know its easy to look at a model and say thats it. Indeed that may be the case here. Its not like there is no storm, its just that this time DC would beat NYC, which really hasnt happened all winter, But its a heck of situation and there is some wicked cold come into this. I can hardly believe what I am seeing in southern Canada this morning. But I know how tricky this is for a model. Its the same problem, that the energy streaks out of the main system coming into California and the northern branch takes it and runs with it. This streaks the snow out, pushes it south due to pressure rises behind it, and the weaker leftover system behind then hits the new baroclinic zone with heavy snows further south.But there are subtle hints of problems even in the furthest south solutions. The fact that it stays moist in the cold air to the north so long. The fact that 30 meters weaker with the front runner and 30 meters stronger with the back system and its back to what we had 2 days ago.. indeed what we saw out of the JMA last night. So as always, until I see what this looks like as it comes into the nation, and whenI dont have a "first guess" field, I stay with my idea. Its not like I havent had the idea now since Monday... I am just not willing to simply change it will convinced. In any case its going to be a great snow event for alot of people. the argument now is that is SOUTH of I-70 with the axis of heaviest not between I-70 and I 80. Its not like the blizzard that disappeared, but like that storm, if you happen to miss the heaviest with this, its not like its the last chance. This pattern is one that since I did flip on the March 10 snap 3 weeks ago, to the memorable March idea, that I think will have winter snow threats in the plains to the mid and north atlantic states into April! The lakes could have the latest ice melt ever. Its been a heck of a winter.. and its not done yet" Models 1 - JB - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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