Birds~69 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Honestly I don't follow them enough to be able to evaluate their forecast skill. Usually someone brings a post of theirs to my attention, I'm not actively watching their page. The one thing I remember them getting "wrong" was the big ice, when they were forecasting several inches of snow at the start. They don't seem to archive their forecasts on their Facebook page. IMO, Facebook sucks for weather. I don't pay attention... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teflon Beamer Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 DT and EPAWx in a Twitter Spat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 DT and EPAWx in a Twitter Spat. I was hoping for something more interesting than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 DT and EPAWx in a Twitter Spat. can you summarize? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 From JB today "This has the potential to put NYC and PHL at the brink of their all time records, which means I dont think 1-2 feet of new snow in the Sunday-Tuesday period is a laugh. It reminds me of the Feb 1967 blizzard also a 2 part storm where a wave came out first with a positively tilted trough and the southwest upper feature simply fed itself into the northern branch. That this has loads of water and there could be a 6-12 inch storm by monday night before what may really push things over the top starts, is, in my mind, a real option" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 and was this quote after the Euro run came in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 DT is in ***ALERT*** mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 DT is in ***ALERT*** mode From what I read it looks like central Pa...I could be wrong but it doesn't look like his post isn't for the subforum area. FB post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 and was this quote after the Euro run came in?[/quoteYes as we all know JB makes a forecast not a model read out....like some other sub sites Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 epawa states on twitter that Monday's snowfall in Allentown will break the all-time record there...I think KABE has received 66.7" thus far this season. Not sure of exact all-time record, but I believe it's 76-77"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 epawa states on twitter that Monday's snowfall in Allentown will break the all-time record there...I think KABE has received 66.7" thus far this season. Not sure of exact all-time record, but I believe it's 76-77"? 75.2" is the record. 8.5" is certainly possible on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 DT is in ***ALERT*** mode Charlie Alpha Bravo ALEET ALEET!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 75.2" is the record. 8.5" is certainly possible on Monday. I guess it would be only fitting that this season end up being an all-timer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ray...I am unbiased and, with many, many years of tracking various outlets "experience", I honestly feel that they've been quite accurate this year (at least for my area), With the exception of one storm! Other than the "misread" for snj that you've noted....how do you feel about the rest of their analysis at this point for this time period? I must also note that I can not stand to read their Facebook fan posts..90% of them are absolutely nauseating! As some who must track weather as part of my job, I get very concerned when someone like them tell the public there is no chances of tornados, when there are tornado watches out. They have done it twice, in both cases there reported tornados or there was rotation shown on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Just watched NBC 10 with Sheena (on DVR delay) and never seen her babble so much and seem so confused with her delivery. Also have noticed her Florida "accent" has come back of late..can't deny her looks though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Early call from Elliot Abrams on KYW this moring -- 6"-12". Elliot's usually conversative and we're still a few days away. Of course he said things can change, but seems rather bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Early call from Elliot Abrams on KYW this moring -- 6"-12". Elliot's usually conversative and we're still a few days away. Of course he said things can change, but seems rather bullish. Keep in mind, that's usually a team effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Keep in mind, that's usually a team effort. yes - mostly likely the company line because Murphy had 6-12" this morning on 6ABC, Philly did straddle the 6-12" / 3-6" line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I also heard him this AM also indicated more than 12" possible N and W Keep in mind, that's usually a team effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Steve D thinks 10"-16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Latest from JB with the 12z runs "There is a two fold problem with the storm that renders the model snow amounts questionable at best. That does not mean they cant be right. But what we are seeing here is the model jumping on a front impulse and pushing more cold air, and by doing so pushing the snow south. This could be the start of a trend, or perhaps not, a glich so to speak. I really cant tell at this time, and have to watch it. The feedback of the front running system could be an error. For one, the GFS loves to do that. For 2 the ECWMF is weak on systems moving out of the southwest. What may be happening is both errors are at play here. The modeling 2-3 days away tends to have problems. What is interesting is the 2 models most far south yesterday, the Canadian and WRF have shifted north. So the reduction of liquid is problem one ( actually the push south) Problem 2 is the ratios This will turn into a very cold storm and 20 to 30 to 1 ratios could occur where less than .5 liquid occurs. I am puzzled by the southward shift, suspect its an error, yet I can not be sure. The noon runs yesterday trended south, only to come back north again last night. Until the system is on the "playing field" so to speak, no run is etched in stone. The again there is alot of competition here and its complex. Complex and competition are not great for big storms. However its too early FOR ME, maybe not for others brighter than I, ( side bar.. When someone says its too early to tell, they should speak for themselves. I someone right now says, the precip will be further south and nails it then its not too early for them. I always assume someone will have the right answer, it just may not be me. But when you hear someone say that, you should say, you mean for you) But right now I am staying with the idea that the GFS/ECMWF had for accumulations, but the reason I thought they were good was that in the northern part of that area, we did not need the 10 to 1 to get to the amounts. The model of course is using 10 to 1 all over, but I thought, well near the mason dixon line 10 to 1 gives a foot, but up in the I-80 corridor using 20 to 1 would give it. Then again the best model on the storm a couple of weeks ago, the JMA remains wet" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Keep in mind, that's usually a team effort. Been listening to Abrams for years. His voice says lots of snow. No matter what the official AW forecasts says. Wife picked up on this, this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 epawa states on twitter that Monday's snowfall in Allentown will break the all-time record there...I think KABE has received 66.7" thus far this season. Not sure of exact all-time record, but I believe it's 76-77"? winter of 1993-94 for that record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 not used to jb hedging like that?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 nbc10 is slipping, still going with higher amounts north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 From JB late this AM "I do not jellyfish forecasts. If I work at something, I will wait till convinced I am wrong to change it. Therefore before I shift the snow south from my current axis, which is close to the ECWMF 2 days ago and the NAM at 06z and JMA last night, I need to be convinced You know its easy to look at a model and say thats it. Indeed that may be the case here. Its not like there is no storm, its just that this time DC would beat NYC, which really hasnt happened all winter, But its a heck of situation and there is some wicked cold come into this. I can hardly believe what I am seeing in southern Canada this morning. But I know how tricky this is for a model. Its the same problem, that the energy streaks out of the main system coming into California and the northern branch takes it and runs with it. This streaks the snow out, pushes it south due to pressure rises behind it, and the weaker leftover system behind then hits the new baroclinic zone with heavy snows further south.But there are subtle hints of problems even in the furthest south solutions. The fact that it stays moist in the cold air to the north so long. The fact that 30 meters weaker with the front runner and 30 meters stronger with the back system and its back to what we had 2 days ago.. indeed what we saw out of the JMA last night. So as always, until I see what this looks like as it comes into the nation, and whenI dont have a "first guess" field, I stay with my idea. Its not like I havent had the idea now since Monday... I am just not willing to simply change it will convinced. In any case its going to be a great snow event for alot of people. the argument now is that is SOUTH of I-70 with the axis of heaviest not between I-70 and I 80. Its not like the blizzard that disappeared, but like that storm, if you happen to miss the heaviest with this, its not like its the last chance. This pattern is one that since I did flip on the March 10 snap 3 weeks ago, to the memorable March idea, that I think will have winter snow threats in the plains to the mid and north atlantic states into April! The lakes could have the latest ice melt ever. Its been a heck of a winter.. and its not done yet" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Its interesting thatJB says how impressive the cold is in se Canada and epawa says the polar vortex is underperforming according to current obs in canada. According to epawa they see a shift north because of this and don't quite buy into the extent of the southern trend this storm has been showing. They do say that they will adjust their snow totals south with their second call which for philly means the 8-14 swath they had north of the city with the first call should be over the city now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Its interesting thatJB says how impressive the cold is in se Canada and epawa says the polar vortex is underperforming according to current obs in canada. According to epawa they see a shift north because of this and don't quite buy into the extent of the southern trend this storm has been showing. They do say that they will adjust their snow totals south with their second call which for philly means the 8-14 swath they had north of the city with the first call should be over the city now. I stopped reading after "epawa"....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know they catch a lot of flack on this site and sometimes deservedly so but they have actually been pretty decent this year as I have followed their fb page all winter. Im not saying they'll verify I just like to read as many met opinions as I can as I love learning from this site and others. And in case anyone cares they're calling for 6-12 in philly and the immediate burbs with their second call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Steve D and NYNJPA weather is not buying the 18z GFS or the 12z Euro....his tweet within the past hour is "The extreme suppressed solution on the 12z Euro appears a bit extreme given the latest obs...they don't match up. So clearly this storm is going to be more robust than the 12z Euro suggested" goes on to say the likely solution will be a more robust storm from NYC/LI and on south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.