snowwors2 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 1) March does not have biggest storms on average 2) 20 inches of snow in March is extremely rare 3) Take a look at the amount of snow we got in March in our record setting winter of 09-10. (I do think we will do better than that year but I am comfortable saying we won't get 20 inches---I don't think I have lived through a March that had 20 inches of snow. Nor has Philly ever had four 6"+ snowstorms in a single season before this 2013-14 winter! so we have a friendly disagreement it seems.. fair enough.. just saying, I hope I'm right, you probably hope so too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I would say PHL's chances of catching the 09-10 snowfall totals is small, but not impossible. The look of the models over the next 2 weeks is very good for adding more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Consider 20" might not be needed in March, still have the last week of Feb and the 26th storm is doing what this winter does best, trending better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Consider 20" might not be needed in March, still have the last week of Feb and the 26th storm is doing what this winter does best, trending better Yes Indeed..I knew there was another thought I wanted to add to my post! Squeezing in posts between work duties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Consider 20" might not be needed in March, still have the last week of Feb and the 26th storm is doing what this winter does best, trending better True...PHL could pick up at least a few inches of snow this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 How about April 3-4 1915? If 19+ inches could happen in April in Philly in any year, this would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I would say PHL's chances of catching the 09-10 snowfall totals is small, but not impossible. The look of the models over the next 2 weeks is very good for adding more snow. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 How about April 3-4 1915? If 19+ inches could happen in April in Philly in any year, this would be it. Actually that was a fairly abysmal winter. More than half of that snow-season's snow was from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Another Philly Suburb Traffic Fiasco? ( example of problem) February 21 01:06 PM I warned the snow and ice clients at weatherbell about this earlier. The front coming through ( and there are 20 degree drops between the warm air in Jersey ..with a tornado watch.. and the cool air holding to the north and coming from the west) has quick wind, then it drops off. With the deep snowcover stubbornly holding on ( I am in PHL now at gymnastics meet and there is alot of snow nw of here) skies may clear and winds go calm this evening. Just updated clients to show what we showed this am ECWMF still indicating light winds and rapid clearing means by 7 pm, temps below 32 in alot of snowcovered areas in mid atlantic mason dixon north. This could lead to black ice. I dont know if gvt agencies are catching this, but want my winter clients to at least see this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yeah 38F already and water everywhere have to watch temps Almost got rid of ice cake on driveway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I see Upton has a Special Weather Statement out for Black Icei've never seen the NWS put black ice in their regular forecasts. Would that raise public awareness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 JB not following conventional forecasts this week.... 1) I believe the arctic wave midweek will be more than the GFS says in the I-95 corridor 2) I dont believe the system coming into California Thursday will escape off the south Atlantic coast. I expect a) a stronger southern system and at least partial phasing with the northern branch. The modeling, ECWMF included loves to play streams off each other and while there is something on its tail which is liable to be be coast to coast cruiser also, all its doing is kicking the southern branch east fast enough to give the northern branch something to "aim" at. So I would look for a weekend snowstorm threat ( starts friday in the plains) to the mid atlantic states Sat and Sunday, and most likely even further north. The other "problem" is the model is probably not catching how strong the low will be, which means a different feedback than the fading solution it seems to have.To some extent, its stringing out of the southern system, forcing height falls in front of it off the south atlantic coast looks like what happened with the major storm that dumped so much more snow than the GFS had 3 days before about 10 days ago ( the system that followed the Sunday fizzler) With the big high following it, it sets the stage for the California rain system coming inland next weekend ( then we go back to dry) to march across the nation... basically we are going into a pattern of storms and rumors o them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 All of these winter cancel posts are getting old! How about some fresh insight... . http://www.northeastusweather.com/2014/02/24/significant-storm-system-to-affect-100-million-people-during-the-first-week-of-march/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 All of these winter cancel posts are getting old! How about some fresh insight... . http://www.northeastusweather.com/2014/02/24/significant-storm-system-to-affect-100-million-people-during-the-first-week-of-march/ People say the same thing every year about this time, yet it's almost never 'over'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 JB from last evening... "Did 3 updates to commercial clients today as the GFS, though not as bad as its January winters over debacle where it flooded N America with warm air, looks like its once again having its usual speed problem into the west coast, knocking down the ridge an failing to understand that after the day 5-12 snow and ice burst that is coming for the nation, there is a reload of extreme cold for the mid month" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 From JB this afternoon.... "Tomorrow morning could be a nightmare in the I-95 corridor. A preview of this occured around DC, but there is more umph with the system tomorrow and a coating to 2 inches of snow in 3-5 hours from DC ne could be a real headache. I will be very surprised if the Friday system is not more than forecasted by the GFS. This a negatively tilted trough with a double jet structure and the model is losing it given that its a relatively small system against what is going on around it. We have seen this before and while I wont say now it will go all the way to the post Super fiasco ( from 3 days out the GFS missed it completely), I do think something like that is on the table. With that likely being stronger, more cold will likely push and the result will be a further south axis of ice and snow with the system coming into California on this, but we will talk about that later. One of our chief rivals is banging the drum for milder weather March 7-11 and sending the NG market into a free fall, or put it this way, that is what the Bloomberg wire is saying. I dont normally comment on this, but these merchants of mild have been calling winter off all winter. I am waiting for the writer to ask, will this go the way of...for instance, the mild weather this week that was supposed to occur as the last thaw was the end of winter so to speak from some of these peope. I do agree March 7-11 will be milder than March 2-7. Simply because march 2-7 maybe as cold as any 5 day period we have seen in the nation in 60 years.. It is true that this with a core of only 9C below normal with a core of 16c BELOW NORMAL Keep in mind 9C below normal March 10 is still colder than normal in the dead of winter.I probably should shut up.. one of these days, the screams of warmer will hit and hold" To discuss this entry and other weather topics with the WeatherBELL community, please click on the button below to access the WeatherBELL Forums 2013 2014 2015 Jan Feb Mar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 and so it begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 it should be considered malpractice to post the 240 hour canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 it should be considered malpractice to post the 240 hour canadian... The worst part is that is totals for 2 storms since the Canadian has a 2nd storm at 200+ hours that dumps a lot of snow over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 No better way to get more Twitter followers as a met than to post that hype map. I will say I hope it verifies so we can smash the snowfall record in philly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 http://epawablogs.com/weather-alert-maps-5/ Interesting read over at EPAWX, if this verifies I could end up eating crow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 http://epawablogs.com/weather-alert-maps-5/ Interesting read over at EPAWX, if this verifies I could end up eating crow. Apparently they either just go straight off the WxBell maps as if they are perfect, or don't even know how to read a model. Because the Euro certainly does not have 6-12" on south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Apparently they either just go straight off the WxBell maps as if they are perfect, or don't even know how to read a model. Because the Euro certainly does not have 6-12" on south Jersey. The BS in their post required me to call them out on their Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Apparently they either just go straight off the WxBell maps as if they are perfect, or don't even know how to read a model. Because the Euro certainly does not have 6-12" on south Jersey. EPAWX did respond to a reply to a post of theirs, and they mentioned they are a subsidiary of wxbell. I'm not sure if this influences their content and forecasting. From what I have been reading here there is a sharp temp gradient where ptype issues are gonna be a problem for S Jersey. None the less still interesting for sepa folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 EPAWX did respond to a reply to a post of theirs, and they mentioned they are a subsidiary of wxbell. I'm not sure if this influences their content and forecasting. From what I have been reading here there is a sharp temp gradient where ptype issues are gonna be a problem for S Jersey. None the less still interesting for sepa folks. Its outright lying or complete ignorance to say the Euro shows 6-12" for South Jersey. Either one is inexcusable for a page with 170,000 likes, but I guess hype gets likes these days. I long for the day when Mt. Holly tops them, but that seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Its outright lying or complete ignorance to say the Euro shows 6-12" for South Jersey. Either one is inexcusable for a page with 170,000 likes, but I guess hype gets likes these days. I long for the day when Mt. Holly tops them, but that seems unlikely. I went over and gave your comment a thumbs up..! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Its outright lying or complete ignorance to say the Euro shows 6-12" for South Jersey. Either one is inexcusable for a page with 170,000 likes, but I guess hype gets likes these days. I long for the day when Mt. Holly tops them, but that seems unlikely. DT is falling into this trap of FB likes...he isn't lying but it has an affect on his post quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Its outright lying or complete ignorance to say the Euro shows 6-12" for South Jersey. Either one is inexcusable for a page with 170,000 likes, but I guess hype gets likes these days. I long for the day when Mt. Holly tops them, but that seems unlikely.Ray...I am unbiased and, with many, many years of tracking various outlets "experience", I honestly feel that they've been quite accurate this year (at least for my area), With the exception of one storm! Other than the "misread" for snj that you've noted....how do you feel about the rest of their analysis at this point for this time period? I must also note that I can not stand to read their Facebook fan posts..90% of them are absolutely nauseating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Ray...I am unbiased and, with many, many years of tracking various outlets "experience", I honestly feel that they've been quite accurate this year (at least for my area), With the exception of one storm! Other than the "misread" for snj that you've noted....how do you feel about the rest of their analysis at this point for this time period? I must also note that I can not stand to read their Facebook fan posts..90% of them are absolutely nauseating! Honestly I don't follow them enough to be able to evaluate their forecast skill. Usually someone brings a post of theirs to my attention, I'm not actively watching their page. The one thing I remember them getting "wrong" was the big ice, when they were forecasting several inches of snow at the start. They don't seem to archive their forecasts on their Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Honestly I don't follow them enough to be able to evaluate their forecast skill. Usually someone brings a post of theirs to my attention, I'm not actively watching their page. The one thing I remember them getting "wrong" was the big ice, when they were forecasting several inches of snow at the start. They don't seem to archive their forecasts on their Facebook page. That is the, referenced, storm they erred badly on, otherwise very good (for my area at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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