ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Technically just counting accumulating snowfall - we have gone 10 days one time 1/11 - 1/20 and 8 days between 12/18-12/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 JB commenting...again on the GFS and the fact it is used for point and click forecasts all over... "Would be laughable if it wasnt occurring in such big ticket patterns. Think about it. NYC had an 8 inch snowstorm that 3 days before preloads had NO SNOW in for and then a 12 inch storm that the model barely had the 2 inch line getting to it. And you want to trust that app? Here in State college the current 20-24 inch snowcover only had 6 inches of it forecasted 3 days away. There are no authorities in weather least of all models that are being used as preloads to weather data bases all over the country" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 JB commenting...again on the GFS and the fact it is used for point and click forecasts all over... "Would be laughable if it wasnt occurring in such big ticket patterns. Think about it. NYC had an 8 inch snowstorm that 3 days before preloads had NO SNOW in for and then a 12 inch storm that the model barely had the 2 inch line getting to it. And you want to trust that app? Here in State college the current 20-24 inch snowcover only had 6 inches of it forecasted 3 days away. There are no authorities in weather least of all models that are being used as preloads to weather data bases all over the country" Another classic case of JB not having a clue how NWS point-and-click forecasts are made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 JB commenting...again on the GFS and the fact it is used for point and click forecasts all over... He needs to knock this off!! He has no idea what he is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I can't really tell if he is rambling on about some app or is it him picking on his old crew at accuwx who simply plug in the GFS for their long range daily forecasts. quote name="MGorse" post="2816632" timestamp="1392854772"]He needs to knock this off!! He has no idea what he is talking about. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I can't really tell if he is rambling on about some app or is it him picking on his old crew at accuwx who simply plug in the GFS for their long range daily forecasts. Since he apparently said "point and click forecasts", that is what the NWS web based local text forecasts are called. I never heard AccuWeather forecasts referenced as "point and click". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Another classic case of JB not having a clue how NWS point-and-click forecasts are made. I've asked in a couple of threads before how the NWS point-and-click forecasts are made and never gotten an answer, probably because the question was buried in a fast moving obs/model thread. Can someone explain what the NWS does to generate those forecasts? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I've asked in a couple of threads before how the NWS point-and-click forecasts are made and never gotten an answer, probably because the question was buried in a fast moving obs/model thread. Can someone explain what the NWS does to generate those forecasts? Thanks. We start out with a map of the area. If we've haven't made a forecast for that time period previously, its blank; otherwise, it will contain the current forecast. What that looks like is a bunch of colors and some values in certain important places, depending on what element it is (weather, temperature, wind, etc). From there, we can manually manipulate it like you would in, say, Paint or Photoshop, or we can load data from various models, or blend the forecast with the models, or any combination thereof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 We start out with a map of the area. If we've haven't made a forecast for that time period previously, its blank; otherwise, it will contain the current forecast. What that looks like is a bunch of colors and some values in certain important places, depending on what element it is (weather, temperature, wind, etc). From there, we can manually manipulate it like you would in, say, Paint or Photoshop, or we can load data from various models, or blend the forecast with the models, or any combination thereof. And once that is completed, the forecast (database) is saved and published to official to be sent to the servers. It is after this step where software/formatters take the forecast within the database and post it online to be displayed via text (point and click) and graphically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Hey Mike - I went back and looked and JB did not specifically say point and click (that was my poor interpretation) - he said what I quoted referencing "pre-loads"....is he referencing point and clicks with that?? Is a pre-load point and click??? Since he apparently said "point and click forecasts", that is what the NWS web based local text forecasts are called. I never heard AccuWeather forecasts referenced as "point and click". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Hey Mike - I went back and looked and JB did not specifically say point and click (that was my poor interpretation) - he said what I quoted referencing "pre-loads"....is he referencing point and clicks with that?? Is a pre-load point and click??? It sounds to me like he is needling his old employer, who still.... at least as far as I know... simply takes GFS output for their long-term (i.e. beyond 4 or 5 days) "forecasts" for individual locations, and, of course, he is genetically incapable of not taking a shot at anything remotely done under aegis of the United States government so he is getting in his regular GFS hit. I can't help but noted that, when he still worked for his former employer, he pointed out ad nauseum that their longer term forecasts were "experimental". This has probably been discussed, but I tend to stop following things during the "off season" (i.e. when there is no hope for... or reason to discuss... snow) so I probably missed it: What exactly were the circumstances for JB leaving his old employer? Is there bad blood or did he just decide to strike out for greener pastures? If there is bad blood, I guess I can kind of understand the guy needling them a bit, but otherwise, it seems kind of... well.... small to be attacking his former employer purely because he doesn't work for them anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 This has probably been discussed, but I tend to stop following things during the "off season" (i.e. when there is no hope for... or reason to discuss... snow) so I probably missed it: What exactly were the circumstances for JB leaving his old employer? Is there bad blood or did he just decide to strike out for greener pastures? If there is bad blood, I guess I can kind of understand the guy needling them a bit, but otherwise, it seems kind of... well.... small to be attacking his former employer purely because he doesn't work for them anymore. All I ever heard was that he had been unhappy there, and then got a good offer from WxBell and took it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Ray I know you are not a big fan of AccuWx but did you ever work with Henry M? Curious your thoughts about him?? I hate to be critical of a professional.....but I dropped AccuWeather subscription after watching some of Henry's videos and no matter what you think of JB....at least he gave you some insights and we all know he sticks with ideas way too long despite models etc. . But Henry just seems to struggle with making any forecast he just shows model output and will change just as quick as the 12z to 18z moves him....he is kind of the antithesis of JB in my opinion Paul All I ever heard was that he had been unhappy there, and then got a good offer from WxBell and took it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Ray I know you are not a big fan of AccuWx but did you ever work with Henry M? Curious your thoughts about him?? I hate to be critical of a professional.....but I dropped AccuWeather subscription after watching some of Henry's videos and no matter what you think of JB....at least he gave you some insights and we all know he sticks with ideas way too long despite models etc. . But Henry just seems to struggle with making any forecast he just shows model output and will change just as quick as the 12z to 18z moves him....he is kind of the antithesis of JB in my opinion Paul Yeah I did work with Henry. No comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Ray you are a wise man.......as my mom always said if you have nothing nice to say....say nothing at all Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Yeah I did work with Henry. No comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 The ghosts of 1899 " 1934 " 1958 " 1961 " 1977 " 1978 " 1979 " 1994 " 2003 " 2010 The Peggy Lee Storm. i.e. "is that all there is?" It sounds to me like he is needling his old employer, who still.... at least as far as I know... simply takes GFS output for their long-term (i.e. beyond 4 or 5 days) "forecasts" for individual locations, and, of course, he is genetically incapable of not taking a shot at anything remotely done under aegis of the United States government so he is getting in his regular GFS hit. I can't help but noted that, when he still worked for his former employer, he pointed out ad nauseum that their longer term forecasts were "experimental". This has probably been discussed, but I tend to stop following things during the "off season" (i.e. when there is no hope for... or reason to discuss... snow) so I probably missed it: What exactly were the circumstances for JB leaving his old employer? Is there bad blood or did he just decide to strike out for greener pastures? If there is bad blood, I guess I can kind of understand the guy needling them a bit, but otherwise, it seems kind of... well.... small to be attacking his former employer purely because he doesn't work for them anymore. I gather he's still friends with some of the people who work there, i.e. Bernie Rayno, so I I doubt he would trash his old employer. All I ever heard was that he had been unhappy there, and then got a good offer from WxBell and took it. I was always under the impression that he was one of the founders of WxBell? I think he was unhappy about the technology he was provided with to do his videos. He had to do them from the office, not his home or a hotel room when travelling. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I was always under the impression that he was one of the founders of WxBell? I could be wrong, but from what I recall, the founder is this rich guy, fairly young (younger than me I think), who tapped JB as a founding employee. So I guess you'd call him an "original employee", pretty much there from the start, but I don't think he really had a hand in founding the company. But I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I could be wrong, but from what I recall, the founder is this rich guy, fairly young (younger than me I think), who tapped JB as a founding employee. So I guess you'd call him an "original employee", pretty much there from the start, but I don't think he really had a hand in founding the company. But I could be wrong. I do recall him saying that he jumped at the opportunity to work with Joe D'Aleo, who actually passes me as being an interesting person. He certainly knows his weather history, kind of a modern day David Ludlum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I could be wrong, but from what I recall, the founder is this rich guy, fairly young (younger than me I think), who tapped JB as a founding employee. So I guess you'd call him an "original employee", pretty much there from the start, but I don't think he really had a hand in founding the company. But I could be wrong. You are talking about Ryan Maue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 You are talking about Ryan Maue. Ryan Maue is not the founder of WxBell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Ryan Maue is not the founder of WxBell... Brain fart my bad, here is the founder: http://www.weatherbell.com/teambio.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 From JB at WB today "The southern branch will be breaking through next week and a 10 day period when it can rain in California, even southern California, will result. The storm that reaches the coast late next week is likely to be a doozy of a winter storm for the US, and the storm before it driven off the east coast late next week is not to be given up on. That is liable to phase and hit the east, as a new pattern of storms and rumors of storms starts." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 JB tweet this AM "ECWMF weeklies indicate both PHL and NYC will be cold enough through March to have legit shot at breaking seasonal snow records" Here in NW Chester County PA we are still 20" short of the all-time mark (95").....hard to believe that is within reach locally - but PHL has a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 JB tweet this AM "ECWMF weeklies indicate both PHL and NYC will be cold enough through March to have legit shot at breaking seasonal snow records" Here in NW Chester County PA we are still 20" short of the all-time mark (95").....hard to believe that is within reach locally - but PHL has a shot I think we're still 20+" away from 09-10 down here in Philly too no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I think we're still 20+" away from 09-10 down here in Philly too no? PHL record is 78.7". Current 58.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 PHL record is 78.7". Current 58.4". yup i was going to say catching 95-96 is realistic but not 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 yup i was going to say catching 95-96 is realistic but not 09-10 sorry but..how can you say that in this crazy/awesome "winter of winters!" ? we've just experienced 25"+ within a two week period and March comes with it the biggest historic storms on average.. Gonna be fun closing this winter out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 sorry but..how can you say that in this crazy/awesome "winter of winters!" ? we've just experienced 25"+ within a two week period and March comes with it the biggest historic storms on average.. Gonna be fun closing this winter out!! 1) March does not have biggest storms on average 2) 20 inches of snow in March is extremely rare 3) Take a look at the amount of snow we got in March in our record setting winter of 09-10. (I do think we will do better than that year but I am comfortable saying we won't get 20 inches---I don't think I have lived through a March that had 20 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 1) March does not have biggest storms on average 2) 20 inches of snow in March is extremely rare 3) Take a look at the amount of snow we got in March in our record setting winter of 09-10. (I do think we will do better than that year but I am comfortable saying we won't get 20 inches---I don't think I have lived through a March that had 20 inches of snow. For Philadelphia 20" of snow in MAR is even more than extremely rare - hasn't happened. With that being said Philadelphia did record 24.1" during a 9-day stretch from 2/28-3/8 1941. The Blizzard of 93 is the only storm in which Philadelphia recorded 12" during calendar MAR, again during 1941 a big 15.1" storm occurred 2/28-3/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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