ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Latest paraphrased thoughts from Steve at NJ PA weather - seems to echo JBs concerns about this set up for tomorrow....Steve says to say this forecast is complicated is an understatement the reason he gives include: - The convection has been significantly strong along the Gulf Coast than forecasted by model guidance. - Leading to a surface low further to the south than expected - Significant cold air damning has been established along the coast with the 1030 MB high over Ontario - Of most concern is the wet bulb temps are down to the mid 20′s to mid 30′s throughout the entire region ahead of this storm. - All models continue the east and colder trends - and this is not a "small nudge" -Guidance has shifted the track from eastern Virginia to the New Jersey coast and then towards southeastern Massachusetts which leads to higher snowfall potential over the interior and higher ice potential just northwest of the major cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Latest JB tweet has GFS coming in colder per Euro with Major Ice event on the east side of the heavy snow Steve at NJ PA - says he is growing concerned for a more widespread Ice impact then he currently forecasts with updates coming this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi: 06z GFS cools from previous run! HPC discussion points out errors in US models on temps.. Good job in catching it, but most didnt see. @BigJoeBastardi: Once again snow falling SOUTH of DC at start of storm, well south of GFS idea on this from previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi: 06z GFS cools from previous run! HPC discussion points out errors in US models on temps.. Good job in catching it, but most didnt see. @BigJoeBastardi: Once again snow falling SOUTH of DC at start of storm, well south of GFS idea on this from previous runs Has either mad a call yet? The tweets seem to be the same information that is provided on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Both keeping same forecast as yesterday...JB naturally had a colder forecast so he is staying the course and Steve is reviewing latest data and may have changes forthcoming Has either mad a call yet? The tweets seem to be the same information that is provided on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Latest tweet from Steve at NJ PA "more concern is pressure falls are intensifying over the NC VA coast - east of what was expected" JB has 4 to 8" of snow for Harrisburg with some IP mixing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Latest tweet from Steve at NJ PA "more concern is pressure falls are intensifying over the NC VA coast - east of what was expected" JB has 4 to 8" of snow for Harrisburg with some IP mixing in Largest pressure falls right where they were forecast to be: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Sorry JB, but DC ain't getting no 4 inches of snow from the Boxing Day storm. Verification: Trace. EDIT: NWS measured 0.2" once they got their climo report out later in the day. That might as well be a trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Some evening musings as paraphrased from JB... He mentions the edges of the precip are always a problem but his general idea on this storm was as good as he could get it from as far out as he did but he says - you can be the judge. He has no changes on the late week event as he again sees it as stronger than the models say, but the axis of snow with this one will be further south. Reiterates that this is not last winter with 3 winter events already in the books for many of us here in the east and despite some warmups on the horizon the cold will always be on the horizon to temper any warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 on the 0z EC... Wxrisk.com 4 to 8" of snow from eastern KY and southern OH into ALL of WVA...all of sw PA... all of southwest VA ( from Roanoke to Bristol) into the Shenandoah valley ... and a 4 to 8 inch band from DCA BWI northeast into Philly ...all of NJ NYC into western CT western mass.. and 8-12" over eastern CT RI eastern Mass including Boston and Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 For once let's post a positive and a kudos to JB - his forecast of 50% of the US Covered with snow within 2 days of Christmas (a forecast he made last month) has verified with over 63% of the US snowcovered this AM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 For once let's post a positive and a kudos to JB - his forecast of 50% of the US Covered with snow within 2 days of Christmas (a forecast he made last month) has verified with over 63% of the US snowcovered this AM! ellinwood will be the first to give him props lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 For once let's post a positive and a kudos to JB - his forecast of 50% of the US Covered with snow within 2 days of Christmas (a forecast he made last month) has verified with over 63% of the US snowcovered this AM! great job JB....ONE prediction out of 123 verified..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Lot's of JB love on this board....the man does inspire emotion - something tells me he likes it that way! great job JB....ONE prediction out of 123 verified..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm glad we made this a separate thread. Funny to read his posts on the last storm - deserves weenie of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 ellinwood will be the first to give him props lol waiting...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 For once let's post a positive and a kudos to JB - his forecast of 50% of the US Covered with snow within 2 days of Christmas (a forecast he made last month) has verified with over 63% of the US snowcovered this AM! Someone tell me how often this happens first and then I might. Also, broken clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi: Next storm coming will have axis of heaviest snow SOUTH of storm now departing for east.. Tul to Pit Friday. DC-Bos fri pm into sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Someone tell me how often this happens first and then I might. Best I could find is this from Accu from a story back in 2010 that even references JB: The average snow coverage by Christmas Day is usually between 25 and 35 percent, according to Meteorologist Heather Buchman. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/southeast-included-in-50-perce/43581 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Best I could find is this from Accu from a story back in 2010 that even references JB: The average snow coverage by Christmas Day is usually between 25 and 35 percent, according to Meteorologist Heather Buchman. http://www.accuweath...-50-perce/43581 So it looks like he makes the same forecast every winter Thanks for finding that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 First guess from Tolleris: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 First guess from Tolleris: Ummm ..... doesn't make sense. The 4" line means what exactly. Interpretations go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ummm ..... doesn't make sense. The 4" line means what exactly. Interpretations go! Well, I am surprised he did not put a range in there. Other than that I think he expects the areas north and east of his 4" line to receive 4". (I am saying this WAY more graciously than DT would state it!), with a lollipop in the WV mountains and of course, the areas N & E of PA which would get the bonus from any intensifying coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 How many feet did JB predict for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Totals seem awfully high ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks like DT missed adding 2-4" between the 1-2 and 4" areas I would guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 i think somebody hacked dt's map lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 His guess is better than anyone else has put out so far. I do think cooler suburbs of philly will see close to 4, the city I would say at best 2 maybe a little less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Someone needs to teach DT how to contour! Haha No way South Jersey gets > 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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