Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hurricane going with a major winter storm on sunday fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hurricane going with a major winter storm on sunday fwiw I was a conference call earlier speaking with people in the south(Washington DC/Richmond). They are even hearing rumors of the biggest storm in 25 years is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I was a conference call earlier speaking with people in the south(Washington DC/Richmond). They are even hearing rumors of the biggest storm in 25 years is coming. Good grief! I hope you LOL'd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanenbc10 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hurricane going with a major winter storm on sunday fwiw We had Jim Cantore on and he talked about it being major...and even mentioned one model saying 20"+. I only say "potential" major at this point....too early to go any further than that. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We had Jim Cantore on and he talked about it being major...and even mentioned one model saying 20"+. I only say "potential" major at this point....too early to go any further than that. Glenn thanks glenn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I see DT's 2nd Final Call map is showing mainly sleet for Montco. Not sure what Dave is seeing but if there ever was a time I hope he nails a forecast for MBY, it's now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 http://epawablogs.com/weather-alert-maps/ EasternPa Weather with their final call, ,more aggressive with snowfall/ice in lower bucks county, pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 http://epawablogs.com/weather-alert-maps/ EasternPa Weather with their final call, ,more aggressive with snowfall/ice in lower bucks county, pa. How can they post a map that shows 3-6" even into lower bucks and the show their own model output within rain there at height of storm? Boggles the mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How can they post a map that shows 3-6" even into lower bucks and the show their own model output within rain there at height of storm? Boggles the mind That got posted to my FB wall, asking about its accuracy. Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That got posted to my FB wall, asking about its accuracy. Good grief.In their defense, they acknowledge that they are "more aggressive than other outlets" and go on to explain why they have that range and that it could likely verify at the low end but the reasons behind why they have a higher end also. By the way...they were spot on with Montco arrival/ending times and amounts for Mondays storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In their defense, they acknowledge that they are "more aggressive than other outlets" and go on to explain why they have that range and that it could likely verify at the low end but the reasons behind why they have a higher end also. By the way...they were spot on with Montco arrival/ending times and amounts for Mondays storm. I know they technically only do PA, but their section of the map to the south is just plain wrong. Sounding temps are already well above freezing northwest of DC. Nothing but ice and rain there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How can they post a map that shows 3-6" even into lower bucks and the show their own model output within rain there at height of storm? Boggles the mind I was surprised too, so I posted. I have been busy and hadn't been following this event as much as the 8/9 event and was surprised to see how much they forecast for Lower Bucks...they'er into langhorne with the snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In their defense, they acknowledge that they are "more aggressive than other outlets" and go on to explain why they have that range and that it could likely verify at the low end but the reasons behind why they have a higher end also. By the way...they were spot on with Montco arrival/ending times and amounts for Mondays storm. I will give them props for waiting for their last call...instead of modifying an already final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In their defense, they acknowledge that they are "more aggressive than other outlets" and go on to explain why they have that range and that it could likely verify at the low end but the reasons behind why they have a higher end also. By the way...they were spot on with Montco arrival/ending times and amounts for Mondays storm. Ok, but they state their reasons why snow will over perform and it includes how snow will keep low level cold in place. Oh yeah? What about the screaming warm mid levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ok, but they state their reasons why snow will over perform and it includes how snow will keep low level cold in place. Oh yeah? What about the screaming warm mid levels? Apparently that doesn't matter The only way their total would verify would be a front end thump, but nothing like that presents itself on radar at this time. At this time I'm leaning towards "less than an inch" back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Apparently that doesn't matter The only way their total would verify would be a front end thump, but nothing like that presents itself on radar at this time. At this time I'm leaning towards "less than an inch" back home. That's awesome lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just heard Alan Kasper on 101.5. C-2" up to 78, 4-6 north of there, changing to a "wintry mix." He is either going to score a major coup or get someone in central NJ killed tomorrow. Scary irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just heard Alan Kasper on 101.5. C-2" up to 78, 4-6 north of there, changing to a "wintry mix." He is either going to score a major coup or get someone in central NJ killed tomorrow. Scary irresponsible. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There's a world of a difference between half an inch of ice and wintry mix. How can you issue a legitimate forecast for NJ and not once mention the word ice for any corner of the state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 There's a world of a difference between half an inch of ice and wintry mix. How can you issue a legitimate forecast for NJ and not once mention the word ice for any corner of the state? I didn't hear his forecast so I can't really answer you on that particular point. That having been said, "wintry mix" is correct, especially if snow falls before it changes to sleet and freezing rain (which is perhaps less and less likely south of I-78 but whatevs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 But that was really my only point. If any of the significant icing does occur, he, and the state's largest news/weather radio outlet will have grossly misrepresented the situation. When you hear wintry mix, do you think potentially devastating ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 But that was really my only point. If any of the significant icing does occur, he, and the state's largest news/weather radio outlet will have grossly misrepresented the situation. When you hear wintry mix, do you think potentially devastating ice storm? Well, I do think sleet and freezing rain, if that's your question. I don't know what other people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'm sure the NWS misses the days when millions are provided with a Winter Storm Warning but a weenie without a face on an internet message board consider it insufficient and wonder why an Ice Storm Warning wasn't issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is what happens when you list ice storm as a separate break away warning from the main criteria for a just a plain winter storm warning. Its the same mental philosophy as if you take hail out of a severe thunderstorm warning and called it a hail storm warning. There was nothing ever wrong with leaving a winter storm warning alone that includes severe icing. NOAA really needs to get rid of an ice storm warning as a separate warning. It just confuses the average citizen who does not what sleet really is let alone what goes into the criteria of an ice storm warning. The public cannot now grasp the simplistic idea that a winter storm warning is a serious issue and should not be taken lightly. I guess I should probably expect a sleet warning or graupel warning with criteria to come out next? And if the criteria is met, then Joe the internet meteorologist(the new computer model to consider called ---JIM) will be complaining about that with his own set of warning criteria The public does not carry around with them the criteria for winter storm warnings. The warning criteria has become so convoluted over the past twenty years with even how to say a public statement. Its like the IRS tax code. I sure liked when NOAA issued a standard travelers advisory with expected snow accumulations of four or more inches that really meant something- like stay off the road. Here you go JIM's - here is your criteria to waffle over and complain about. To FAMARTIN thank you for all of your hard work- sorry you have to endure this. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005013curr.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Per JB No doubt you will all be surprised to see he still sees a big storm for the weekend....that said he acknowledges his bias at the end... I think the GFS and the ECWMF are too strong with the front running system. The GFS is notorious for this and the ECWMF should correct toward its control over the next couple of days. The pattern is such that this should amplify through the midwest right to south of New England. Obviously if the model is right, its not that big a deal compared to what it could be. But its still well outside the range of done deal, at least to me So I have "corrected_ the 500 mb with my lines on it to show what I think this looks like Sunday morniing One of my weaknesses is I will hang on to an idea too long. Duly noted and logged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 From JB this evening (paraphrased) Says the arctic front with its wave on it tomorrow into Monday is a huge pain - though never huge storms, they have their own private agendas, usually thwarting forecasts that try to adjust up for their powder or if they don't going the other way. The GFS is all over the place the middle of next week. He likes the ECWMF control/ensemble run which places a storm just off the mid atlantic coast Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There is hype then there is KYW " a little bit of wet weather is possible on wed or thur" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There is hype then there is KYW " a little bit of wet weather is possible on wed or thur" Yeah, I just heard Carol Erickson on WPHT saying the same... Yes, it will be wet at some point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There is hype then there is KYW " a little bit of wet weather is possible on wed or thur" Absolutely horrendous...as discussed many times before kyw really blew it when they decided to axe accuweather after 10 am each morning...it drives me crazy...CBS is THE worst all around news/weather!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Absolutely horrendous...as discussed many times before kyw really blew it when they decided to axe accuweather after 10 am each morning...it drives me crazy...CBS is THE worst all around news/weather!!! I remember 1060 called for 3-5" on the evening before 1/21, when it was clear it was at least a 6-10" storm, and the airport ended up with 13.5". Very unreliable to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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