Vendor Forecast Discussion

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

Remember JB's honking rolls in his energy consumer accounts. Deep cold equal big profits energy wise so it doesn't surprise me.

 

 

big money for the super bowl forecast too.  

[Violentweatherfan]

But I would think that he has to be right most of the time if the energy companies are going to run their business based on his forecast and they continue to retain him.

Brand recognition, his wxbell company. I think he wants his wxbell maps to saturate the market, increasing exposure and potentially more clients.

[ChescoWx]

Q&A from Steve D at NYNJPA Weather

Will temperatures get as cold as what was seen back in early January?

The answer is colder. Yes, that's right. Colder. The air mass that is on the way is different than the previous air mass because this time the Polar Vortex is not only dropping south but staying put for several weeks, not days. That means arctic air will be constantly reenforced and moderation of the arctic air mass is not likely. In other words, the two days of single digits and teens will be expanded to several days of temperatures of this caliber. Now, you won't see this in the GFS MOS guidance until we are knee deep in the arctic invasion, likely around the 25th of January on through February 15th. However, the potential here for one of the coldest periods of weather seen in some time is very real because of the high latitude blocking that will be in place.

2. Can the storm track be suppressed too far south?

Yes. There is the potential that the Polar Vortex drops so far south into the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Valley that the Sub Tropical Jet Stream is suppressed well to the south. However, I want to be clear that this solution doesn't have a lot of support and remember eventually the Polar Vortex will lift north and that means one way or another the northern Mid Atlantic will be hit with a wave of winter storms. The only question is when.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Q&A from Steve D at NYNJPA Weather

Will temperatures get as cold as what was seen back in early January?

The answer is colder. Yes, that's right. Colder. The air mass that is on the way is different than the previous air mass because this time the Polar Vortex is not only dropping south but staying put for several weeks, not days. That means arctic air will be constantly reenforced and moderation of the arctic air mass is not likely. In other words, the two days of single digits and teens will be expanded to several days of temperatures of this caliber. Now, you won't see this in the GFS MOS guidance until we are knee deep in the arctic invasion, likely around the 25th of January on through February 15th. However, the potential here for one of the coldest periods of weather seen in some time is very real because of the high latitude blocking that will be in place.

2. Can the storm track be suppressed too far south?

Yes. There is the potential that the Polar Vortex drops so far south into the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Valley that the Sub Tropical Jet Stream is suppressed well to the south. However, I want to be clear that this solution doesn't have a lot of support and remember eventually the Polar Vortex will lift north and that means one way or another the northern Mid Atlantic will be hit with a wave of winter storms. The only question is when.

Should be interesting and cold times for me up here in Toronto. There's an outside chance we may finish up with the coldest January in 20 years. More likely 10 years, but possibly 20.

 

FWIW, for February, JB is calling for a blend of 1918 and 1994, pointing out that both months saw it get warm in the south, with a torch mid month and an overall battle between warm and cold.

[ChescoWx]

Parapharasing From JB today

 

The wave Monday night on the Arctic front looks a bit like the precursor to the 67 blizzard not that this will be blizzard but as he has been saying.. everyone of these should be watched until they leave the playing field.. no one system is a lock, but in this pattern you should not just write any of these off. Also of note is that for the second time this winter, NYC has a shot at it actually snowing with a temperature of 10 degrees. How many times do you see that?

[ChescoWx]

From JB on the impending storm

In general he sees around 8" with some higher amounts due to great rates with upward motion. The storm is not developing on the polar boundary, its on the arctic boundary, which has to press south. He says that as ugly as this looks now, a classic 6-12 storm in the I-95 corridor, a more tucked in storm which he sees as possible could double those amounts.

[ChescoWx]

JB paraphrase from today regarding the coming cold - strongest yet and another big ticket snow maker that many will again not see coming

 

He says modeling seems to be almost as cold with what is coming now as later, yet he holds that when the air actually gets into the pattern, the models will be forced to trend down. Not that they are not cold now, but think about 10 days ago--people were poo-pooing what is here now, so humor him and let's see how this plays out.

He also sees a third piece "source region vortex" of on the scene. A is off the coast, B is charging southeast and C is going to be a pivoter behind B, with cold air further west and a bigger storm threat. This is a nasty shot in the Lakes and northeast, but with C on its tail it shifts east. He points out the major negative is bundled up with the vortex. The 3rd is more dangerous because it is free to charge southeast as the vortex lifts. This creates, in essence, a ridge of rapid height rises northeast of where a dagger of rapid height falls are headed and so this is a big ticket event threat again He is also alarmed by the trough south of Alaska, for that argues for a strong upper low over the Appalachians a couple of days later!

 

Overall he says a wild and cold pattern on the way!

[ChescoWx]

Nice write up this AM from Steve at NYNJPA weather

A good practice I think every meteorologist should do is step away from the models and look at the actual atmosphere and what's evolving.

 

As you know, I LOVE using the Water Vapor Satellite Images because you can see the 500 MB pattern evolve very nicely.  The first feature you may notice is the powerful disturbance dropping south from Canada.  That is our Polar Vortex dropping south once again towards the United States and you know what that means!  That's right another Arctic Invasion on the way.

 

However, the pattern is starting to change in some small but very important ways.  Take a look at what is happening over the Pacific Ocean, especially to the West of Mexico.  A significant source of moisture is pooling off of Mexico and starting to influence the pattern over North America.  Of interest to me is the upper level ridge building to the northeast of California and the upper level low directly to the south of this ridge.  What we are developing is called an Omega block.  An Omega block is when you get a ridge and a low located parallel to each other such that one feature feeds the other in a feedback loop that just leads to a sustained block.  Why is this important?

 

Ladies and gentlemen, we are about to go into what is called a Split pattern.  Now, a split pattern is a real pain in the butt to forecast for because you have two competing influences on the pattern over North America and both originate in poorly sampled regions.  So the models can never really calculate the full storm potential that is associated with these patterns until you are 5 days in or less.

 

In this pattern you have a powerful ridge building over the Gulf of Alaska and that will lock in the Upper Level Low to the south of the Aleutian Islands.  Polar disturbances will be forced towards the Arctic Circle through Alaska as a result and then crash southward with plenty of Arctic air through February with this Polar configuration.  However, note the upper level low developing off of Mexico and the negative tilt of the base of the trough over the central Pacific.  This is a sign of an active Sub Tropical jet stream developing.  So you end up with a trough off the West coast and at times over California  which then sends a series of disturbances over the southern Plains and directly towards the East coast.

 

The Omega block is not one to break down very quickly, which is why I keep on targeting early March before we get out of this brutal pattern.  The change now is we are about to add significant moisture to the equation here that will really get this pattern kick started in February.

 

As far as blocking in the Atlantic, the evolution of the powerful ridge over the west coast of North America will force the Polar Vortex to set up between eastern Ontario and the Canadian Maritimes, which will act as a negative NAO block at times but not a true negative NAO block.  The type of storms we will see are isentropic lifting storm where warm air will try and fail to drive over the Arctic air and Miller A type storms where disturbances ride up the coast.  We will have to keep an eye on phasing clipper systems as well moving forward.

 

Pass the coffee, I really need it.  I think I'll go and hibernate in April.

[famartin]

Those who called for this cold wave to be colder than the last have, at least locally, failed.

[ChescoWx]

JB paraphrase of the day

He sees a Feb version of December, we should expect a pulling back of the trough and a storm to cut. He says that 20 days from now alot of people in the northeast may have as much or more snow as they do now, but 10 days from now there may be none on the ground. He went on to talk about dream winters for snow lovers that always has snow on the ground but here in the Northeast that is not the norm. Although he believes this year will indeed end up being very memorable (if it's not already) based on what is ahead in February.

[ChescoWx]

From Steve at NYNJPA weather

 

There is a high level of volatility in the forecast starting on Sunday night and continuing through next weekend. Those that worship models and just cut and copy MOS guidance is going to be dealing with 20 degree temperature swings in their forecasts. Not fun.
The problem with the forecasts is simple. The models not able to handle all the disturbances at play here and thus each run produces a new solution depending on the interaction of the Polar and Sub Tropical jet streams. So here is what we are going to do. We are going to keep this simple and focus on what is in front of us. I'm not saying don't forecast for Wednesday or next Saturday. I'm saying recognize what we are dealing with here. Each disturbance and storm track will influence the other so as such, we need to nail down what is in front of us now before forecasting for the next storm.
This brings me to Monday morning where there are several potential solutions here depending on a few factors. We set everything up on Sunday night with the Arctic cold front sinking south and bring cold air to the region. The first question in this forecast is just how fast the cold air works into the northern Mid Atlantic. The GFS is completely lost here while the ECMWF has cold air transport but slower. The CMC guidance is more aggressive keeping temperatures cold enough for accumulating snowfall. The key factor here to consider is to understand what we have been observing with these cold air masses. The model guidance continues to under forecast these air masses and I think that trend continues with this pattern as well. SO, I'm leaning on the CMC on this respect.
The next question is just how much moisture this disturbance will have while passing over the southern Plains on Saturday afternoon. The key point here is how strong the disturbance is to draw moisture northward. Thus far the disturbance is stronger than modeled and frankly is more impressive than what the models have been suggesting.
So the threat here on Monday morning will feature a fast moving disturbance passing to the south of New Jersey. The disturbance will be driven by the thermal dynamic gradient that I suspect will be strongest over southern New Jersey, central New Jersey, southeastern Pennsylvania, and the southern half of Long Island. Much like the last storm that was under forecasted, this threat will be capable of produce a period of light to moderate snowfall in these areas. Snowfall accumulation potential I think tops out at 6" given the speed of the system and temperature profile (upper 20's to lower 30's). The snow ratio will likely be between 10:1 to 12:1.
Once we get this storm out of the way, then we can concentrate on Wednesday because then we'll have a handle on the true low level cold air in place (and enhanced with fresh snow pack), the blocking in the Atlantic, and strength of the Sub Tropical jet stream.
Patience is needed here. We can not jump to Wednesday or Saturday until we get answers for Monday. Once we do that, then we can handle the other storms. Patience with an even keel approach. That's how you don't have 20 degree swings in our forecast or take 14 day snow maps seriously.

[ChescoWx]

From JB paraphrase today

Why he thinks the Euro is right and the GFS wrong for monday! He says this looks like the kind of situation the GFS will be wrong on. Front running max probably too strong, Back max weakened in the face of another system behind it. So the model is too weak on what is in between. The ECWMF is likely right. Why? Whats its biggest weakness? It drags its heals in the southwest ( why it is two flat with next weeks monster storm, which I think will be a big ticket event. But when it brings it out, it means it usually has the right idea. After all its error bias is to not bring it out. He then speaks to THERE WANTS TO BE A RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST and says the trough coming out should correct north. Its hard to believe with it probably getting to near in NYC for Super Bowl Sunday, that a storm is going to be suppressed so far south so its snow is in Va..Besides  he says haven't we seen a couple of storms that were targeted near Richmond that wound up around NYC and PHL. And lets face it, for whatever reason, it WANTS TO SNOW IN PHL this year. And it likes doing it right after it warmed up. He knows this is not a real reason but....it does seem that way this year. So he likes the ECWMF on the storm on Monday and dont expect the GFS to catch this till it sees how much this really has on the weekend

[iceman56]

From Accuwx's HM going with warmth and cutters:

I've been looking at a lot of things this morning, and to me, this is one of the wilder weather patterns that we are going into for the month of February. With the NAO being positive and the PNA being negative, storms over the next two weeks should cut into the Great Lakes despite what the ECMWF is saying. The kicker will be the Monday storm that can produce some some sneaky snows on the order of 1-4 inches from Texas to Virginia Sunday into Monday. That will probably be the last of the southern cutters as the pattern goes into what we saw back in November. In the video, I did talk about the November pattern that led to a severe weather outbreak due to the positive NAO and negative PNA. I am not saying that will happen, I am just saying that the pattern means the storms cut to the eastern Great Lakes and not to the East Coast as the ECMWF says.

/bThe monthly control run of the ECMWF looks more inline with the pattern through February into early March showing very warm weather in the East and cold weather in the northern Plains and West./b It also shows major storms with snow and severe weather.

[ChescoWx]

Not to bad mouth Henry.....but I would say he would be the last person I go to for a forecast. Just yesterday morning he was talking "big snows" for the NE Cities - If you watch his videos he simply outlines model output - not much for his own ideas

From Accuwx's HM going with warmth and cutters:

I've been looking at a lot of things this morning, and to me, this is one of the wilder weather patterns that we are going into for the month of February. With the NAO being positive and the PNA being negative, storms over the next two weeks should cut into the Great Lakes despite what the ECMWF is saying. The kicker will be the Monday storm that can produce some some sneaky snows on the order of 1-4 inches from Texas to Virginia Sunday into Monday. That will probably be the last of the southern cutters as the pattern goes into what we saw back in November. In the video, I did talk about the November pattern that led to a severe weather outbreak due to the positive NAO and negative PNA. I am not saying that will happen, I am just saying that the pattern means the storms cut to the eastern Great Lakes and not to the East Coast as the ECMWF says.

/bThe monthly control run of the ECMWF looks more inline with the pattern through February into early March showing very warm weather in the East and cold weather in the northern Plains and West./b It also shows major storms with snow and severe weather.

[famartin]

Not to bad mouth Henry.....but I would say he would be the last person I go to for a forecast. Just yesterday morning he was talking "big snows" for the NE Cities - If you watch his videos he simply outlines model output - not much for his own ideas

Uh oh, I think we agree on something

[iceman56]

Not to bad mouth Henry.....but I would say he would be the last person I go to for a forecast. Just yesterday morning he was talking "big snows" for the NE Cities - If you watch his videos he simply outlines model output - not much for his own ideas

Agreed.   Only posted it due to it's rather outlandish content.   Elliot and Joe L. are solid though, Henry's more entertainment value.

He was glacier building in the east just a few days ago...

[Violentweatherfan]

I wonder if Henry's role at accu is to drive up views of their website. He isn't all that bad of a severe weather met, he did graduate met school and I'm sure knows quite a bit so I would bet his role is to create interest in a potential stormy period.

[ChescoWx]

JB tweet this PM

Get ready PHL....Heck of a way to run a thaw....Snowstorm Monday!

 

JB has not wavered from this coming north for the last few days....if it verifies nice job

[Birds~69]

JB tweet this PM

Get ready PHL....Heck of a way to run a thaw....Snowstorm Monday!

 

JB has not wavered from this coming north for the last few days....if it verifies nice job

 

Who hasn't with the ways things have been going this winter? If he said it was going S of the predicted path he would deserve more props...

[ChescoWx]

too funny....I am always secure in being alone with any even small praise for JB....don't think he will ever be real popular - well maybe with the weenies

Who hasn't with the ways things have been going this winter? If he said it was going S of the predicted path he would deserve more props...

[ChescoWx]

From Steve at NYNJPA Weather today

 

Well, it's amazing how the models can catch on to a snow threat when the disturbances involved are finally sampled properly.  This is an important lesson to learn for the next few storms and why I am not concerned about the model solutions for Wednesday and Saturday in terms of details.  However, I'm getting ahead of myself.  First, let's discuss Monday.

ALL ABOUT FRONTOGENESIS!

The key to Monday is about about thermal dynamics and moisture transport.  The key players, the Sub Tropical disturbance and Polar disturbances, are now being properly sampled and as such we have a better look on this snowfall threat on Monday.

 

The key to the forecast is the advancement of the Polar/Arctic cold front on Sunday night at the surface and mid levels of the atmosphere.  The image to the left is of 850 MB at the height of the snow threat on Monday morning at around 11 AM.  The key points here is that the temperatures aloft will be far colder over central New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania than at the surface.  There will be a 4 to 8 degree Celsius difference in temperatures from the surface to 850 MB which will lead to an unstable environment and the support for enhanced vertical frontogenesis and thus convective snowfall.  That's right, snow banding.  Central New Jersey through southeastern Pennsylvania will have the perfect mix of the strongest thermal dynamics and and moisture transport leading to a general 3 to 6 inches of snow on Monday morning with local amounts up to 10 inches in a few locations due to convective snowfall.

 

Because of the sharp cut off in moisture transport, the snowfall accumulation gradient will be sharp.  For example,  portions of Monmouth County, New Jersey will have up to 10 inches of snow, while JFK will struggle to reach 3 inches and New York City may only have one or two inches of snow.  This threat is CLEARLY a Philadelphia metropolitan to central coastal New Jersey snow threat.

 

As far as southern New Jersey, you are clearly in the game for 3 to 6 inches of snow with locally higher amounts.  However, the vertical thermal dynamics are expected to be far weaker because the atmosphere will not be as cold at 850 MB.  Additionally, at the start of the event the snow may start as a mix of rain and snow or even just rain before going over to steady moderate snowfall.

 

DON'T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY!

The threat for Wednesday likely will feature a wide variety of winter weather impacts.  We are clearly too far out to provide details, but I'm putting this warning out NOT to underestimate this storm's impacts.  For one, I'm concerned the cold air mass for this storm is not being properly forecasted.  We are going to have a fresh snow pack in place and clearly there is a CAD signature showing up on the synoptic models.  We've played this game before and we should be wary of a far icier solution than what some guidance suggest right now.

 

I'm particular focused on the ensemble guidance from all the models that suggest a colder solution.  Now, let me be clear that Wednesday's event is not a pure snow event with the exception of perhaps northeastern Pennsylvania where up to a foot of snowfall is possible.  However, for locations just away from the coast, roughly 5 to 10 miles, I am very concerned about a prolonged period of snow, sleet, and freezing rain before any change over to rain if that happens at all.

 

So my advise is to prepare for the worse and hope for the best in this set up.  As I have stated for several days the first event sets up the next and so on leading to an influence of boundary layer dynamics including the strength of the low level cold air mass.  We already see that this first storm is going to be far more significant than what was forecasted just 24 hours ago.  Consider that aspect when dealing with this storm on Wednesday.

[Birds~69]

^ Damn, not to bust but you really pick them. JB now Steve...when he use to post here his forecast were for the most part very bad. He would ramble on about something that "he saw" that no one picked up then go from there. Many good Mets on this board to even bother w/those two. Hell, DT looks like Einstein compared to them.

[ChescoWx]

Not much I can say to someone who has your views.....but for myself I try to respect all professional METS who make a career out of what is a very difficult profession. They may not always be right but they do deserve respect - not sure what your education and or career is in....but I would bet JB and Steve can run circles around you from a meteorological perspective.

 

^ Damn, not to bust but you really pick them. JB now Steve...when he use to post here his forecast were for the most part very bad. He would ramble on about something that "he saw" that no one picked up then go from there. Many good Mets on this board to even bother w/those two. Hell, DT looks like Einstein compared to them.

[tcutter]

I think DT is a very good met but obviously ego can get in the way sometimes. I miss his internet chats with some of the other mets that were on this and older forums.

[ChescoWx]

Paraprhasing From JB late this PM

Doing a little pat on his back for his very early read that this was coming further north Monday so the WB folks will be updating that snowstorm to end the "thaw" this evening. But another point he has been trying to make is the further that trough backs off the west coast, the stronger the trough is in the east in the longer term ( then it gets drier.. after the 10 day snow/ice siege that is coming.. again ratios will be varied between 5 and 20 to 1, so use common sense. The point is world of wild that should make people that love snow and ice Smile from Texas to the mid and north atlantic states. It is a close match to the opening 10 days of Feb 1994 - he points to increased blocking over Greenland to boot! He heard there was another end of winter cry from some Thursday...may not work out real well for those that hope for such...

[ChescoWx]

JB already looking ahead to weekend and hinting at "B" word for the setup. Says the Euro will catch on based on it's current bias from this far out....says it will catch on just as he predicted the storm tomorrow was coming north when not forecasted that far out

[RedSky]

ch10 Glenn Schwartz with new model data indicating snow holds on N&W locations for a few more hours today untill 3-4pm sounds good!

[famartin]

ch10 Glenn Schwartz with new model data indicating snow holds on N&W locations for a few more hours today untill 3-4pm sounds good!

That's really what's been expected all along (well, at least since yesterday).

[iceman56]

I figured we'd be seeing the sun before sunset - still think so.

[ChescoWx]

JB on the weekend storm and the "potential" ah let's call it likely cold feet that is no doubt coming with the GFS - when does it not wobble on big storms?

 

 

"The "piecemeal" release of the western trough is resulting in a questionable solution on the east coast this weekend. I can see the flatter systems if the trough is staying back, but its coming out, but the ECWMF "problem" is its dragging its feet in the southern branch, a known problem. So more likely to me is the threat of the major storm rolling through the plains and bombing out on the east coast as the trough deepens through what is now essentially a ridge position, So I am comfortable with the more ambitious GFS ideas though we are likely to go through a period when it gets cold feet. Its kind of humorous, the attention to the storm when we had a big one go through yesterday and a big one today and tomorrow.  One risks appreciation of the present over fantasies ( fears???) of the future" The ECWMF control run, which looks much like its operational shows a disjointed system, with 3 separate features ( there is a bump back in Nebraska) fighting like pigs in a feed sack and leading to the sloppy solution shown on the AvengerBut notice how the ensembles lead to a more unified solution. I like this better because the ECWMF problem is in line with its usual error pattern. But the other reason is that this trough is beating down the ridge... not just sending pieces out. The fact is the analog to Dec 7-13 is working not only with temps, but think about it. We had the Eagles storm on Dec 8th that left a swath of snow centered not too far from where yesterdays swatch went. What happened on the 13th... another storm, bigger which at times looked like it would be pushed south and yet came so far north, that alot of people went over to rain. Its February now.. storms are usually more apt to bring snow, but the parallels should not be lost on you. That snowstorm on the 8th around PHL occurred with a big ridge in the east, but pushing cold air. The storm later occurred as the trough fought its way east."