Vendor Forecast Discussion

[ChescoWx]

From JB today
"Once Again many will see a thaw end with snow. And why not? Its not like it hasn't happened all winter. Even this morning, it starting snowing and icing where it has wanted to do it all year. Wasn't a big storm, but for alot of people a big pain.  The ante is upped though east. The ECWMF ensembles continue to get deeper on every run with the trough now at 120 and the one that follows for the MLK weekend"

[ChescoWx]

Tweet per JB this evening

"Cold shot coming this week not as nasty as previous one, and not as bad as what's coming last week of the month....CO2 has nothing to do with it"

[donsutherland1]

Tweet per JB this evening

"Cold shot coming this week not as nasty as previous one, and not as bad as what's coming last week of the month....CO2 has nothing to do with it"

Setting aside JB's extraneous comment regarding CO2--I'm not sure how it has anything to do with the possible synoptic pattern evolution--the reforecast ensembles hint at a possible strong cold shot during the last week of January. The same holds true regarding the best match teleconnection cases to date for January. In fact, the 500 mb pattern and 850 mb temperature anomalies on the reforecast ensembles at 360 hours are quite close to what the teleconnection cases for the last week of January (centered around 1/27-28) show:

 

 

 

Also, if one takes into consideration the cases during the 1981-2010 climate base period during which New York City (a proxy for the region) saw a cold shot during the first half of January in which the low temperature was 2 or more standard deviations below the January 1981-2010 average low figure, another bout of severe cold typically occurred some time during the January 25-February 5 period.

 

All said, while nothing is cast in stone just yet, the possibility of another strong Arctic shot toward the end of January is probably very much on the proverbial table.

[ChescoWx]

Per JB today on the Wed - Thurs interior snow event

"The GFS is "correcting" to what I drew for you last night, and the Canadian is already there, so the idea of an interior eastern snow event Wed into Thursday sits well with me. I like the Canadian snow through 96 hours, as its now close to JMA implications, which has not bitten on the front max. I will feel more confident if the ECMWF goes back to its idea from a couple of days ago"

[Violentweatherfan]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42396-beep-beep-alert-alert-snowstorms-and/#entry2637483

Katodog still feels we are a go with storms late January early February, with possible meteors from the break up of the comet ISON. One of the snowstorms could be big...

[RedSky]

0z GFS has an epic last half of january and katodogs first storm. Nice eye candy

[KamuSnow]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42396-beep-beep-alert-alert-snowstorms-and/#entry2637483

Katodog still feels we are a go with storms late January early February, with possible meteors from the break up of the comet ISON. One of the snowstorms could be big...

 

Meteors, polar vortices, snow...nice winter so far!

[ChescoWx]

Mr Bastardi also continues to see a "bigger ticket" snow event possible for the big cities this weekend....clearly for the next few weeks he is all aboard the cold (as cold relative to averages) as the last arctic outbreak. Along with some significant snows in the Northeast area of the country

[Animal]

JB has been going wild today about how the entire US is going into the deep freeze.

He is troubled with what will occur. His call outs are the following:

• Cold outbreak will rival 1985
• It will be so cold it will strain the citites. Busting pipes, power outages, live stock frozen in their tracks etc.
• Crisis cold. Nation needs to prepare

 

Cheers

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

JB has been going wild today about how the entire US is going into the deep freeze.

He is troubled with what will occur. His call outs are the following:

• Cold outbreak will rival 1985
• It will be so cold it will strain the citites. Busting pipes, power outages, live stock frozen in their tracks etc.
• Crisis cold. Nation needs to prepare

 

Cheers

 

 

there's been a lack of big storms this season....thus, he's prolly needing signups.  

 

extreme colds in late January / early Feb. are usually temporary and not a big deal. 

 

"oh noez, the polar vortex is coming again...everybody take their anxiety meds"

[iceman56]

Better clean out the dust bunnies under the bed so I can crawl in there....

 

Somthing for the media to hype on beside Christie.

[KamuSnow]

JB has been going wild today about how the entire US is going into the deep freeze.

He is troubled with what will occur. His call outs are the following:

• Cold outbreak will rival 1985
• It will be so cold it will strain the citites. Busting pipes, power outages, live stock frozen in their tracks etc.
• Crisis cold. Nation needs to prepare

 

Cheers

 

That's pretty cold!

[Animal]

That's pretty cold!

 

Latest tweet

 

The legend JB "I have never ever seen this cold of a run off the ECWMF ensembles day 10-15...Outrageous"

 

Euro imop has been sucking wind all year, so we may need to toss it.

[KamuSnow]

Latest tweet

 

The legend JB "I have never ever seen this cold of a run off the ECWMF ensembles day 10-15...Outrageous"

 

Euro imop has been sucking wind all year, so we may need to toss it.

 

I'll be happy with just plain old snow and cold!

[donsutherland1]

That's pretty cold!

IMO, the rhetoric about "crisis cold" is a bit much. If one were talking about a February 1899, December 1917, February 1934 Arctic outbreak, one might be in the proverbial ballpark.

 

However, at least up to this point, the GFS, its ensembles, ECMWF, and its ensembles have not been forecasting that magnitude of cold. Moreover, it should be noted that the U.S. infrastructure is vastly more developed than it was back during those epic Arctic outbreaks, so the impact on energy and on people would be less than it was then. Instead, one will be dealing with some adverse impacts ranging from some higher energy prices, some agricultural impacts, higher heating bills, some localized disruptions in the power supply, and some reductions in economic activity (e.g., reduced retail activity where some shoppers temporarily delay purchases) for a time if the presently modeled solutions work out. A crisis would suggest a severe to possibly grave situation on at least a sufficiently large scale that the nation would have difficulty addressing it for a period of time and would require an extraordinary response e.g., deployment of the National Guard to help out.

 

I don't believe that's the case this time around given the latest guidance. Of course, there's always some risk that I will be incorrect, but barring the kind of historic Arctic outbreaks noted above (1899, 1917, 1934), any crisis would far more be the result of a lack of adequate long-term preparation and planning than it would be the actual severity of the cold.

[SP]

IMO, the rhetoric about "crisis cold" is a bit much. If one were talking about a February 1899, December 1917, February 1934 Arctic outbreak, one might be in the proverbial ballpark.

 

However, at least up to this point, the GFS, its ensembles, ECMWF, and its ensembles have not been forecasting that magnitude of cold. Moreover, it should be noted that the U.S. infrastructure is vastly more developed than it was back during those epic Arctic outbreaks, so the impact on energy and on people would be less than it was then. Instead, one will be dealing with some adverse impacts ranging from some higher energy prices, some agricultural impacts, higher heating bills, some localized disruptions in the power supply, and some reductions in economic activity (e.g., reduced retail activity where some shoppers temporarily delay purchases) for a time if the presently modeled solutions work out. A crisis would suggest a severe to possibly grave situation on at least a sufficiently large scale that the nation would have difficulty addressing it for a period of time and would require an extraordinary response e.g., deployment of the National Guard to help out.

 

I don't believe that's the case this time around given the latest guidance. Of course, there's always some risk that I will be incorrect, but barring the kind of historic Arctic outbreaks noted above (1899, 1917, 1934), any crisis would far more be the result of a lack of adequate long-term preparation and planning than it would be the actual severity of the cold.

 

When I read JB's comments I basically thought the same as you posted above Don.  I went through Sandy at the Jersey Shore, its a high bar to compare to a cane strike. JB tweeted "economic impact of a major hurricane".  Could it happen? Maybe but it would have to last for a good bit to shut down commerce for a long duration.

[ChescoWx]

Paraphrasing from JB today

The Snowlovers out there, mainly the eastern version who are upset cause it snows and goes, have to heed the advice I have given ....he told subs that before December that the pattern would produce early in the month, but need to be patient. Same thing here, except when it snows its likely not to just melt. We could see next week and beyond for 10-15 days a piling up situation. He hears there are complaints about these systems being "clippers" clippers with blocking and retrograding troughs can get dangerous. Its a matter of time befoe one.. or more hit. Plus he still has the MLK weekend storm on the table

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

getting that amped up over a weather pattern 2+ weeks out is borderline-trollish. 

 

period.. 

 

did he really say..

 

 

live stock frozen in their tracks

 

?

 

if so, lolllz.  

[KamuSnow]

I'm all in for snow piling up.

[KamuSnow]

getting that amped up over a weather pattern 2+ weeks out is borderline-trollish. 

 

period.. 

 

did he really say..

 

 

?

 

if so, lolllz.  

 

lol...it's why I said "that's pretty cold!". That's like asteroid cold.

[SP]

he also tweeted

 

I believe when totaled up, the economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US

 

 

Anyone have the mean for major cane eco damage???

[donsutherland1]

he also tweeted

 

I believe when totaled up, the economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US

 

 

Anyone have the mean for major cane eco damage???

From MSN:

 

Accuweather.com estimates the median amount of damage caused by an Atlantic hurricane hitting the U.S. at around $1.8 billion. The average overall cost of such a storm, however, is nearly $9 billion -- thanks to outsize expense from Hurricane Katrina's damages ($145 billion in 2011 dollars).

 

http://money.msn.com/now/post.aspx?post=f91acb22-8ab7-483b-89c8-e7233f5db020

 

The Accuweather account can be found here: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/how-much-does-a-hurricane-cost/51649

 

Wikipedia has the most up-to-date list on hurricane costs:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_costliest_Atlantic_hurricanes

 

Also, from that list, the major hurricanes since 2005 (not necessarily major storms at U.S. landfall) with at least one U.S. landfall had a median figure of $16.6 billion in damage. I doubt that the lasting economic damage from the cold rival anything like the costs of Sandy's damage. Probably almost all of the delayed retail sales on account of people staying home will be made up once the cold lifts. The present value impact of the delayed retail activity will probably be small. Most of the economic impact will probably be agriculture or energy-related.

 

It will be interesting to see if JB or someone else attempts to estimate the economic costs related to the cold.

[NJ_Ken]

I agree with everybody that JB seems to have gone off the deep end with his rhetoric (even by his own standards).  I am far from an expert, but it looks like we might, at worst, be in line for an extended period of below-average temperatures for much of the eastern half of the country but without much extreme cold of the record-breaking variety.  Even so, a couple of points bear mentioning.... and, just to be doubly clear, I am not agreeing with JB, but rather I am playing devil's advocate.   

 

First, the average person has an incredibly short memory.  We see it every year when we get our first snow, and it is immediately followed by a bunch of fender benders because nobody "remembers" how to drive in snow.  In much of the country, we haven't been subjected to extended, real-deal Arctic outbreaks in literally 20 years so you can rest assured that millions of people who should know better still won't be prepared if the predicted outbreak comes to fruition.  People with oil heat will "forget" to fill their tanks.  People who have dicey power connections will "forget" to stock up on firewood.  People whose heaters didn't seem to be up to the task earlier this month will "forget" to have them serviced.  etc., etc., etc.  I don't say this to attack anybody.  I am just pointing out what we all know:  If something doesn't happen for a few years... whether it is snow or hurricanes or extreme cold... too many people just tend to assume it will never happen again, and, thus, won't prepare for it. 

 

As for infrastructure, yes, in theory, technology is a couple of factors better and more reliable than it was even in 1994 and certainly exponentially better than it was in the late 70s and early 80s when Arctic outbreaks reached the Gulf on a regular basis, but utilities are dealing with the same budgetary constraints the rest of us are (believe me, I worked in that business for 15+ years up until last June so I lived it).  If equipment replacement and/or upgrades aren't absolutely necessary to maintain service or meet the law, most utilities have been doing without for many years now, and that means they are now working with systems that are, on a good day, wildly outdated and, on a bad day.... say during an extended cold outbreak where demand is near record levels for many days in row.... well, everything could crash. 

 

Remember, during the winter of 1976/77, the nation reached a crisis (which was barely averted thanks to a thaw) not because systems failed or because there wasn't enough fuel being produced or because people panicked and did stupid things.  The problem in 76/77 was that the Ohio River and its tributaries froze solid.  Much of the Midwest's electricity back then was generated by coal-fired plants using coal delivered by barge.  Frozen rivers meant no barge traffic and insane cold for days meant the power plants were quickly burning through their coal stockpiles.  Businesses and schools closed across the Ohio Valley in January 1977 not directly because of the cold (i.e. they were not worried about people getting frostbite), but rather because there was a very real fear that they were going to run out of power.  I am not so sure that things are very different in the Ohio Valley today.  There are still plenty of coal-fired power plants and presumably they still get their coal via barge so another extended cold outbreak could be just as troubling (and really the length of the outbreak rather than the level of cold is what would be critical here).  Worst of all, by all accounts, the electrical grid of today is little changed from the 70s so it would just as difficult to "share" power with the Midwest... especially if power demand is at near record levels to their east, south, and west.       

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

^ great post Ken.

 

 

live stock frozen in their tracks

 

 

I was google'ing around to see if this is even possible.

 

apparently it is.

 

http://www.mdolla.com/2011/01/coyote-found-frozen-dead-in-his-tracks.html

 

coyote found frozen dead in his tracks, literally

Have you ever asked yourself how cold it would have to get to freeze an animal dead in its tracks? Well if so, the answer is -28 degrees. That's how cold it was in Silt, Colorado when this coyote froze solid right in it's tracks.

 

 

 

[Violentweatherfan]

I was google'ing around to see if this is even possible.

 

apparently it is.

 

http://www.mdolla.com/2011/01/coyote-found-frozen-dead-in-his-tracks.html

 

 

It's gotta be road kill or just dead, and then it became frozen solid someone propped it up...then took a pic

[eastonwx]

Truck driver frozen to ground for 8 hours

(well, his clothes were frozen to the ground, and he couldn't get out of them, but you get the point...)

http://www.news965.com/news/news/local/orlando-truck-driver-pinned-frozen-ground/ncg8Z/

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I agree with everybody that JB seems to have gone off the deep end with his rhetoric (even by his own standards).  I am far from an expert, but it looks like we might, at worst, be in line for an extended period of below-average temperatures for much of the eastern half of the country but without much extreme cold of the record-breaking variety.  Even so, a couple of points bear mentioning.... and, just to be doubly clear, I am not agreeing with JB, but rather I am playing devil's advocate.   

 

First, the average person has an incredibly short memory.  We see it every year when we get our first snow, and it is immediately followed by a bunch of fender benders because nobody "remembers" how to drive in snow.  In much of the country, we haven't been subjected to extended, real-deal Arctic outbreaks in literally 20 years so you can rest assured that millions of people who should know better still won't be prepared if the predicted outbreak comes to fruition.  People with oil heat will "forget" to fill their tanks.  People who have dicey power connections will "forget" to stock up on firewood.  People whose heaters didn't seem to be up to the task earlier this month will "forget" to have them serviced.  etc., etc., etc.  I don't say this to attack anybody.  I am just pointing out what we all know:  If something doesn't happen for a few years... whether it is snow or hurricanes or extreme cold... too many people just tend to assume it will never happen again, and, thus, won't prepare for it. 

 

As for infrastructure, yes, in theory, technology is a couple of factors better and more reliable than it was even in 1994 and certainly exponentially better than it was in the late 70s and early 80s when Arctic outbreaks reached the Gulf on a regular basis, but utilities are dealing with the same budgetary constraints the rest of us are (believe me, I worked in that business for 15+ years up until last June so I lived it).  If equipment replacement and/or upgrades aren't absolutely necessary to maintain service or meet the law, most utilities have been doing without for many years now, and that means they are now working with systems that are, on a good day, wildly outdated and, on a bad day.... say during an extended cold outbreak where demand is near record levels for many days in row.... well, everything could crash. 

 

Remember, during the winter of 1976/77, the nation reached a crisis (which was barely averted thanks to a thaw) not because systems failed or because there wasn't enough fuel being produced or because people panicked and did stupid things.  The problem in 76/77 was that the Ohio River and its tributaries froze solid.  Much of the Midwest's electricity back then was generated by coal-fired plants using coal delivered by barge.  Frozen rivers meant no barge traffic and insane cold for days meant the power plants were quickly burning through their coal stockpiles.  Businesses and schools closed across the Ohio Valley in January 1977 not directly because of the cold (i.e. they were not worried about people getting frostbite), but rather because there was a very real fear that they were going to run out of power.  I am not so sure that things are very different in the Ohio Valley today.  There are still plenty of coal-fired power plants and presumably they still get their coal via barge so another extended cold outbreak could be just as troubling (and really the length of the outbreak rather than the level of cold is what would be critical here).  Worst of all, by all accounts, the electrical grid of today is little changed from the 70s so it would just as difficult to "share" power with the Midwest... especially if power demand is at near record levels to their east, south, and west.       

Excellent post! I agree that JB went a bit over-the-top with his hurricane analogy, but the bolded parts of this post show that his concern does have merit. I live in Toronto, Canada and people were absolutely freaking out up here last week during the cold snap. Bear in mind that 60% of the population of Toronto wasn't born in Canada and are from countries that generally don't get very cold. The culture has changed too in 20 years in that people just don't expect it to get that cold here anymore. People have been sold on the global warming/climate change theory that arctic outbreaks like those of the late 70s/early 80s just don't happen anymore and thus don't prepare for the possibility that it will.

[Absolute Humidity]

Remember JB's honking rolls in his energy consumer accounts. Deep cold equal big profits energy wise so it doesn't surprise me.

[bigtenfan]

Remember JB's honking rolls in his energy consumer accounts. Deep cold equal big profits energy wise so it doesn't surprise me.

 

But I would think that he has to be right most of the time if the energy companies  are going to run their business based on his forecast and they continue to retain him.

[KamuSnow]

But I would think that he has to be right most of the time if the energy companies  are going to run their business based on his forecast and they continue to retain him.

 

I had the same thought. Maybe he tones the hyperbole down a bit for those customers.