snowwors2 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Eastern Pa WX updated their wall regarding the Arctic shortwave and it's potential effects.Image #1 is the snowfall map off of the 18z GFS of expected totals snow, not accounting for anything that already fell prior to 1pm today. On this image we placed adjusted amounts as we cross-referenced the upper air soundings to account for higher snow ratios. These amounts match our final call map (image #2 - which does not need to be adjusted for higher ratios - they are factored in), and there are no changes to it.... STANDS AS CALLED. The heaviest concentration of snow will fall in our 6-10"+ areas, and some areas from SE PA to New Jersey could approach 1 foot of snow. Image #3: Arctic shortwave (see the purple circle over Mississippi on the map) has progressed to the base of the trough already. This will cause the trough to tilt negative in the next 3-4 hours. Given that the trough axis is still well west of us, this will cause the eastward march of the precip shield to halt and expand, and the coastal SHOULD be held closer to the coast. This should result in heavy snow for several hours into the overnight for just about all of the area. This will remain a dry powdery snow that will accumulate quickly, and winds will increase overnight to 15-25mph sustained with higher gusts over 30mph, so there will be blowing and drifting of snow. If you are worried about dry slots on radar, don't be... this will go through the night and will be heaviest for eastern PA and New Jersey between about 7pm and 3am. We will be watching the radar for frontogentic banding to occur, and best chance for that to occur us from the Lehigh Valley and points east and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltysenior Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 That is really sad if they are. I lloked at their page half an hour ago and they were talking about how the snow in western PA was going to expand and be our threat. That is a joke. Look at the HiRes NAM sim radar. That stuff inwestern/central PA is not what will be giving us our snowfall. It is the area south in SW VA I just feel like they hype EVERYTHING. That is wishcasting. they also posted a map of the RGEM yesterday with a quote that is "showed widespread 6-12" range". When I look at the map I see local 6-9" in SEPA. No 12' amounts until you get into NE. truer words where never spoken.....every raindrop or snowflake is a STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Eastern Pa WX with another update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Eastern Pa WX with another update... Are you meaning to post images? If so, not seeing them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Are you meaning to post images? If so, not seeing them Sorry ray, on my phone. Can you access Facebook... https://m.facebook.com/easternpaweatherauthority?id=240517726049175&_rdr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Let me km now if you can't I'll post pics from my laptop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Sorry ray, on my phone. Can you access Facebook... https://m.facebook.com/easternpaweatherauthority?id=240517726049175&_rdr ok yeah i can see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I didn't want to add clutter, figured it would be easy to just have people just go over and check it out. Also, wasn't sure if your employer blocked the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I didn't want to add clutter, figured it would be easy to just have people just go over and check it out. Also, wasn't sure if your employer blocked the site. A link to the update each time is helpful. Especially given the number of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 From JB today Expects a "mess" tomorrow in the NW burbs of the big cities from DC to BOS with the freezing drizzle/ rain - won't take much precip....also keying on a snow event from the Mason Dixon line on north for Thursday into Friday.....thinks both of these potential events will be underplayed by many. Also wants to be clear that a very brief January thaw is on the way but as is the trend this year - we can already see the cold returning even before it begins. Says to watch out starting January 15th. Warned energy clients yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 https://www.facebook.com/easternpaweatherauthority Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I see JB is seeing a snow event for Thursday into Friday AM...he sees it as more than snow showers... I can't find anyone talking about it but ....the latest Mt. Holly forecast Sunday the 5th late afternoon does have the following for the same time frame "A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OR A MIX OF THEM CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH" Obviously quite a different take on this potential event....how will it play out?? Let us see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 I see JB is seeing a snow event for Thursday into Friday AM...he sees it as more than snow showers... I can't find anyone talking about it but ....the latest Mt. Holly forecast Sunday the 5th late afternoon does have the following for the same time frame "A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OR A MIX OF THEM CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH" Obviously quite a different take on this potential event....how will it play out?? Let us see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Heart says JB Mind says Mt Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Heart says JB Mind says Mt Holly Hey you still here in Brookhaven? If so if you are on Facebook, I have been keeping their page busy on Brookhaven 19015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Heart says JB Mind says Mt Holly JB is fluff, Mt Holly is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 agreed!! JB is fluff, Mt Holly is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Hey you still here in Brookhaven? If so if you are on Facebook, I have been keeping their page busy on Brookhaven 19015 I am still here for now......do I just go to Brookhaven official FB page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steinweather Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Steven DiMartino's Thoughts and Analaysis 7:06 AM "On Thursday, clouds will increase towards evening with an area of low pressure approaching from the Tennessee River Valley. The low pressure system will pass to the south on Thursday night into Friday with a few scattered snow showers expected. The snow showers will be capable of producing snow accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches in some locations, especially over southern New Jersey" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 That is really sad if they are. I lloked at their page half an hour ago and they were talking about how the snow in western PA was going to expand and be our threat. That is a joke. Look at the HiRes NAM sim radar. That stuff inwestern/central PA is not what will be giving us our snowfall. It is the area south in SW VA I just feel like they hype EVERYTHING. That is wishcasting. they also posted a map of the RGEM yesterday with a quote that is "showed widespread 6-12" range". When I look at the map I see local 6-9" in SEPA. No 12' amounts until you get into NE. I have just learned they are an affiliate of Weather Bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 JB seeing the very brief warmup possibly starting (this friday) and ending with Snow in the places it likes to snow this year....NYC/PHL/SJ etc. He likes the Canadian model for the Friday event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I have just learned they are an affiliate of Weather Bell. Of course they are......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Of course they are......... I didn't know this....just found the site not too long ago. Now I understand stand why some feel there is some hype involved with their forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I didn't know this....just found the site not too long ago. Now I understand stand why some feel there is some hype involved with their forecasting. I didn't either. That post post was meant to be a tad bit facecious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I didn't either. That post post was meant to be a tad bit facecious It's always good to understand one's motives...especially when thy have over 100k fb likes...minus one now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 How do you know that? I use SevereNJweather too and they post weatherbell maps but that doesn't mean they are a direct affiliate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 How do you know that? I use SevereNJweather too and they post weatherbell maps but that doesn't mean they are a direct affiliate I gave an opinion on the wxbell maps and their response was they were an affiliate of wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42333-another-storm-coming-maybe-2/#entry2629718 Katodog sees something around the 1/22 and around the beginning of February.... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Oh man katodog is back good times! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Katodog is an Internet superhero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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