Lady Di Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 One always seems to recall the ice winters over the snowier ones. 1994 is one that is hard to forget. Ice storms are much harder to recover from with the power outages and getting roads cleared. There is a real public safety hazzard. It was so cold as well, working in the heating industry we had many many customers that had frozen pipes. The out of oils were horrific for the houses that did have power. They had deliver fuel with a tank on the back of a pick up truck and the guys wore spikes. They\we worked around the clock for those 3 weeks and it is something that I do not wish to relive. The end all of course were the ice jams on the Brandywine Creek that produced record flooding once they thawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 93/94 was historic. I provided field reports to channel 3 OCM David Rogers at the time. Memories....Witnessed 12f and driving rain. I'll never forget walking out to the station provided thermometer to take that ob! Ice on the Cville Reservoir was literally 2' thick. Stuck my hockey stick in an ice fishermans hole and it went halfway down before the blade curled horizontally on the bottom of the ice. It was fascinating to cut a cross section of the backyard glacier in late March, it was like a seeing tree rings, you could revisit each storm that laid its layer. There are so many more to recall. Thanks to Paul and Carmen for inspiring the memories. man i would love to see a skew t plot for 12f with freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 From JB at WB paraphrased from his post todayThe wave coming out of the gulf is interesting.....US models have a generous precip shield, and this could create an interior high ground snowstorm from WVA to New England as the dry air, though mild, would quickly cool to change rain to snow - this will not happen in the big cities. But he is convinced this is the big precip maker that the US models are touting. That being said, the cold behind it is indeed the real deal. He notes his interest in how the ECMWF weekly did have the trough strongly from the 00z Monday runIn his opinion this looks like one of the coldest starts to a New Year in quite some time.... but he finds some things that are strange to him and of course being JB he does not fall for models. He says given the fact there is blocking, and we do not live at 500 mb, He is in no mood yet to jump off the horse that so far, has been a fairly smooth ride for the WB forecasting folks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 More from JB today on the growing discussion of 1994 similarities "So its starting. Is it exactly the same? No,but its very similar and its telling you that what is on the table is, as we are saying the threat of the coldest Jan for the US as a whole since 1994. Is it going to hit 20 below in chicago, teens in Houston snow 2 feet in NYC and ice up DC a couple of times. I cant say that, but I can say that what will likely be the coldest US December since 2000 should be followed by a big cold month in January" Cant help but laugh here. Now I too favor a cold pattern to develop mid-to-late Jan over the Plains and East but to be 1994? With the dynamical models showing massive ridging the second week in Jan over the East... don't buy a 1994 outcome. Wish cast! Models have been doing a respectful job with identifying a cold pattern but are clearly missing these periods of intermittent warmth. Where was JB when we hit 60s and 70s across the East a week ago? Yes when you keep singing the same tune, you will eventually hit the big cold forecast. But it's only a matter of time until you flop back into your notorious cold bias. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/html/z500_anom_f360_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Cant help but laugh here. Now I too favor a cold pattern to develop mid-to-late Jan over the Plains and East but to be 1994? With the dynamical models showing massive ridging the second week in Jan over the East... don't buy a 1994 outcome. Wish cast! Models have been doing a respectful job with identifying a cold pattern but are clearly missing these periods of intermittent warmth. Where was JB when we hit 60s and 70s across the East a week ago? Yes when you keep singing the same tune, you will eventually hit the big cold forecast. But it's only a matter of time until you flop back into your notorious cold bias. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/html/z500_anom_f360_us.html Hyping cold gets JB ratings which translate to $$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Actually Ray I believe Weather Bell makes most of their $$ and JBs from energy clients....whom I would think would not keep paying if he was not giving them good information. He always releases his information to us "weenies" after his energy clients and after markets close... Hyping cold gets JB ratings which translate to $$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Hi Mike I think he made the point of clearly saying this is NOT 1994....but in his view the coldest since 1994. All that said I totally agree with you that he has a cold bias....everyone has a bias and his is well known for cold..... Cant help but laugh here. Now I too favor a cold pattern to develop mid-to-late Jan over the Plains and East but to be 1994? With the dynamical models showing massive ridging the second week in Jan over the East... don't buy a 1994 outcome. Wish cast! Models have been doing a respectful job with identifying a cold pattern but are clearly missing these periods of intermittent warmth. Where was JB when we hit 60s and 70s across the East a week ago? Yes when you keep singing the same tune, you will eventually hit the big cold forecast. But it's only a matter of time until you flop back into your notorious cold bias. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/html/z500_anom_f360_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 JB at WB's initial ideas on the storm that the models see Jan 1-3 - he says it looks alot like a colder version of Dec 12-14. He sees a 0.2 to 0.5 powder event in the plains and midwest mainly north of I-80 in the plains, north of the Ohio river Mississippi to the Appalachians. Further east, where Atlantic moisture can get involved things get even more interesting to JB. The 0z ECWMF looks too far south, the 6z GFS too far north, with the axis of heaviest snow and his gut feeling is something in between these 2 models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Paraphrasing from a well respected MET (haven't heard that in a while...apologies Ray!) Mr.Joe Bastardi at Weather Bell He sees fairly good agreement with the ECWMF and GFS on what happens over the next week with this. Both have a major snowstorm from the plains to the east and this one will have plenty of 20 to 1 ratios with it with the forecasted snow amounts with two heavy bands.. one near the rain snow changeover line where the average temp of the 5k level is around -3C for the duration of the storm ( example starts at -6 rises to near 0, falls back) and the -8C isotherm and then the 528 1000-500 mb thk. For some, what will happen will be a very cold storm with temperatures 15-25 degrees below normal daytime readings. The leading arctic short wave in 72 hours brings out some light snows and the second system that comes behind digs in . In some respects, its like major snow events we saw in 1996. and 2005...The front short comes blasting through with the other behind it left to dig in the wake of the front runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 PM Tweet from Steve D at NYNJPA Weather "And here comes the insanity now that the 12Z ECMWF shows a healthy snow event for 01/02-03" he sees the modeling as too far North....He does not see a major New England hit but does...and has been on the train of a significant storm for this area for the last week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 JB of course is undaunted by modeling as he says the Euro looks backed around too much and of course the GFS is to flat....his main point today is "THERE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR WEST TO EAST DISRUPTIVE WINTER EVENT. This will be similar to Dec 13-14 in that an arctic boundary from the north needs to come through you for you to get into the heavy snow. It will be powdery and it will be a much colder event, partly because its January. Now the problem we have is where does that true front get. I think it gets as far south as New Jersey to Nebraska and so the heaviest snows are likely from the plains to the Appalachians between I 70 and I 80, and north of the Mason Dixon line to I-90 in the NE" He sees the GFS as not strong enough and while he can see the stronger further north idea of the ECWMF, he believes his in between idea he has is best. He says is it 2" or 12" in NYC? He cant say quite yet but its not some shrinking violet.. He references that this kind of synoptic pattern is one that you can see in great Kocin/Ucceline Snowstorm book.. departing vortex with jet behind, and trailing short digging in with a double jet structure . So he is quite certain we have a big storm.. He does not see it pushed south, never have, but remains uncertain as to where the true arctic front gets. But alot of people are going to get a real dose of a darn cold, major winter storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Latest Snow maps for WeatherBell below via twitter (non sub) Basically has 4" snows in areas north (pink)of the Mason-Dixon line with 4-8" (darker brown)starting in NE Pa thru interior New England with a chance for 16" in some spots within that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nicknack Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's official. Henry M. says snow is not possible for Philly in the upcoming storm. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/snowstorm-wednesday-and-thursdaymodels-going-to-extremes/21526091 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The latest from the fine team over at Eastern PA Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Latest from Steve at NYNJPA weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 JB tweeted "Blizzard to near blizzard conditions likely for a few hours NJ to NE late thurs/fri - The GFS will get stronger every run from now on" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 From the folks over at Eastern Pa Weather Authority "12z GFS total snowfall is shown in the image. Decent amounts and a moderate storm that would verify the first call map, but no crippling area (w...e took that word out this morning). Why does it verify? Ratios on the GFS would be about 15:1 ... if this is correct... which means find your area on the map, look at the corresponding color in the legend which is snowfall in inches, then multiply by 1.5. However.... big however here... the GFS does not match the upper air pattern and the low pressure instead of being well offshore should be much closer to the coast, tucked under the Virginia Capes and moving NE. If following the upper air pattern at 500mb (18,000ft up) the result is a much bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Steve D at NYNJPA Weather just tweeted he remains convinced that the most likely scenario is all 3 disturbances interact along the east coast leading back toward yesterday's 12z Euro type run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Couple vendor tweets this midday Steve at NYNJPA weather "Well the models are all shifting to the worst case scenario with blizzard conditions region wide that I warned about from the start" Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1h I am not backing down from Blizzard idea for several hours late Thu night into Fri am NJ to New England. Storm may double my amts some spots NYC. Whether 4, 8 or 16 ( and this could dump 1-2 feet NYC -ratio) Rarely is the kind of wind and cold while snowing seen in these areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice write up (paraphrased) from JB at Weatherbell Worries now the forecast will be underdone from SE PA thru New England . He says HIRES models like the NAM and RGEM should be better at picking out the details of the pattern. He reiterates that the GFS was jumping on a low out to sea, when the snowstorm was on the arctic front with the wave coming there. In fact whether that low develops to the east or not,..it's the curvature with what is coming through Northern va and off the mid atlantic coast interacting with the upper pattern that is the snowstorm according to JB.. north of the arctic boundary which he has been sticking with since last Saturday.. its why there was going to be a STORM.. THE PATTERN! Then he talks about the continuing "physics problems" with the GFS....it's idea of suppression was because the smaller details of the difference between arctic air and the modified air to the south, and the warm tropical air, gets washed out. If a global will try to focus a fight, where better than where its warm. But the height falls hit the northern boundary first, and so it is. This was very much like the mistake the GFS made in 1996, and 1993, both storms 4 days in advance way out to sea, he talks of the revisionist history trying to claim they were not - I remember this clearly less then 36 hours before as I have a videotape of Channel 10 in Philly talking about the greatest impact being South and East of PHL. He says what many of us believe that if you wanted a snowstorm in the east in 4 days, you would want it out to sea on the GFS He then goes more into the continuing GFS problem ,it being a global model will still try to push the storm to where its warmer and spin it up there. So while its come a long way, it still has a problem....it is still a big storm with blizzard conditions developing for a time, but 4-8 is a problem, 8-16 locally 20 when wind chills are 10 to 20 below is a debacle. So he asks which model SHOULD hit this?? To him the HIRES NAM looks pretty good to me. But look at the RGEM too and its been starting to get better and stronger with this since yesterday. The storm is going to "jump" that is what happens when the low level center feeds back, But the further west solution and tighter longer of the RGEM would turn this into a crippling storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Latest from the team at Eastern PA Weather Authority - big hit for all based on their call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Eastern Also mentions the unstable field in the 700/800 MB as HM did in the mid Atlantic forum. I'm glad I found eastern pa wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Eastern Also mentions the unstable field in the 700/800 MB as HM did in the mid Atlantic forum. I'm glad I found eastern pa wxThrow that quote over to here please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 (5) frontogenesis/vertical instability: this one I don't expect many of you to understand, but this deals with bandng during the height of the storm. Several of the short range models at 700-800mb are suggesting impressive banding will take place during the height of the storm, which will increase snowfall rates where it sets up to 1-2" per hour or more. This will be a call we will make as the storm is evolving later this evening, but we listed it as a wildcard that could increase amounts higher than shown here where it occurs Throw that quote over to here please. Correct me if I'm wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 EPAWA folks are a wishcasting bunch of novices. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Aren't most of them Professional Mets?? EPAWA folks are a wishcasting bunch of novices. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Aren't most of them Professional Mets?? That is really sad if they are. I lloked at their page half an hour ago and they were talking about how the snow in western PA was going to expand and be our threat. That is a joke. Look at the HiRes NAM sim radar. That stuff inwestern/central PA is not what will be giving us our snowfall. It is the area south in SW VA I just feel like they hype EVERYTHING. That is wishcasting. they also posted a map of the RGEM yesterday with a quote that is "showed widespread 6-12" range". When I look at the map I see local 6-9" in SEPA. No 12' amounts until you get into NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 That is really sad if they are. I lloked at their page half an hour ago and they were talking about how the snow in western PA was going to expand and be our threat. That is a joke. Look at the HiRes NAM sim radar. That stuff inwestern/central PA is not what will be giving us our snowfall. It is the area south in SW VA I just feel like they hype EVERYTHING. That is wishcasting. they also posted a map of the RGEM yesterday with a quote that is "showed widespread 6-12" range". When I look at the map I see local 6-9" in SEPA. No 12' amounts until you get into NE. Their map reads 6-10 which isn't much different from 6-8 from mt holly's....at least in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 i find EPAWA pretty decent........sometimes they work in conjunction with severnjweather which is another decent site (and also on facebook) EPAWA will also put out videos explaining their thoughts so while they may be wrong i don't believe that they "wishcast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Eastern Pa WX updated their wall regarding the Arctic shortwave and it's potential effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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