Vendor Forecast Discussion

[am19psu]

It's pretty sad to see such attacks, especially as the product is experimental. NWS deserves credit for piloting new forecasting products.

^^^^^A million x this

[Harbourton]

It's pretty sad to see such attacks, especially as the product is experimental. NWS deserves credit for piloting new forecasting products.

Sad -yes. But just look at the attempt by the Sen. Santorum to privatize the National weather Sevice with Accu@$%^. a few years ago. Their agenda hasn't changed!

[Rainshadow]

Sad -yes. But just look at the attempt by the Sen. Santorum to privatize the National weather Sevice with Accu@$%^. a few years ago. Their agenda hasn't changed!

 

The Santorum bill would not have privatized the National Weather Service, but would have removed the National Weather Service from providing day in to day out weather forecasts.  So as a tax paying citizen of the United States you would have paid the National Weather Service to launch and maintain the radiosonde network, run and maintain the computer systems which generate the forecast models, the surface observation, co-operative observing stations, satellites and radar information which gets incorporated into these models and pay those employees involved in the development, running and maintaining of these systems.  In return for your investment, you would not be able to get a day in to day out forecast for your tax investment but may or may not depending on the private venue you would have to use for this information, pay additional money for something you already payed for. 

[Harbourton]

I would rather take my chances in a car that can do 100 mph that wait to get pulverized in a mobile home.

 

As you can see from the map, nothing happened in Conway Springs. But, if you had decided to follow the advice of meteorologists to "flee" you could have been killed by driving into one of the tornadoes that missed the town. By trying to scare ("mass devastation," "survivors," and similar language) people into taking shelter they might be induced to take action that costs them their lives. 

[famartin]

Again, not true. The bill's language (read it for yourself at the link above) says, "

• (4) The provision of reports, forecasts, warnings, and other advice to the Secretary of Transportation and other persons pursuant to section 44720 of title 49, United States Code.

There is a mythology about the Santorum bill that unfortunately permeates the NWS. 

 

Again, I ask, what in the world does this have to do with the issues surrounding the "impacts based warnings" experiment? 

 

It would have removed the NWS from providing day-in, day-out forecasts to the public.

[famartin]

You believe that instead of the plain language to the contrary in the bill? 

The plain language of the bill says that NWS shall be responsible for:

"The preparation and issuance of severe weather forecasts and warnings designed for the protection of life and property of the general public"

 

Meanwhile the part you quoted says

"The provision of reports, forecasts, warnings, and other advice to the Secretary of Transportation and other persons pursuant to section 44720 of title 49, United States Code."

 

OK, lets review that code:

 

"§44720. Meteorological services

(a) Recommendations.—The Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration shall make recommendations to the Secretary of Commerce on providing meteorological services necessary for the safe and efficient movement of aircraft in air commerce. In providing the services, the Secretary shall cooperate with the Administrator and give complete consideration to those recommendations.

( b ) Promoting Safety and Efficiency.—To promote safety and efficiency in air navigation to the highest possible degree, the Secretary shall—

(1) observe, measure, investigate, and study atmospheric phenomena, and maintain meteorological stations and offices, that are necessary or best suited for finding out in advance information about probable weather conditions;

(2) provide reports to the Administrator to persons engaged in civil aeronautics that are designated by the Administrator and to other persons designated by the Secretary in a way and with a frequency that best will result in safety in, and facilitating, air navigation;

(3) cooperate with persons engaged in air commerce in meteorological services, maintain reciprocal arrangements with those persons in carrying out this clause, and collect and distribute weather reports available from aircraft in flight;

(4) maintain and coordinate international exchanges of meteorological information required for the safety and efficiency of air navigation;

(5) in cooperation with other departments, agencies, and instrumentalities of the United States Government, meteorological services of foreign countries, and persons engaged in air commerce, participate in developing an international basic meteorological reporting network, including the establishment, operation, and maintenance of reporting stations on the high seas, in polar regions, and in foreign countries;

(6) coordinate meteorological requirements in the United States to maintain standard observations, to promote efficient use of facilities, and to avoid duplication of services unless the duplication tends to promote the safety and efficiency of air navigation; and

(7) promote and develop meteorological science and foster and support research projects in meteorology through the use of private and governmental research facilities and provide for publishing the results of the projects unless publication would not be in the public interest."

 

That portion only covers aviation, as explicitly mentioned in the opening sections a) and b ).

 

Which leaves the general production of day-to-day forecasts out of the duties portion of the bill entirely.  And which is implied, therefore, to be in competition with the private sector as described in section b ) of the Santorum bill.

[tombo82685]

Ray he won't be able to post back for 5 days. I don't mind having different viewpoints but he was verbally attacking and posting wrong information

[MGorse]

What did I miss? Mike Smith was posting here?

[Rainshadow]

What did I miss? Mike Smith was posting here?

 

Dude, you missed it.  Talk about it next time I see you. (or talk to Ray or Mitch). 

[MGorse]

Dude, you missed it.  Talk about it next time I see you. (or talk to Ray or Mitch). 

 

Geez, I step away for a few days and look what happens. Mitch just summed it up for me.

[tombo82685]

Geez, I step away for a few days and look what happens. Mitch just summed it up for me.

He is gone, after i restricted him from posting he left.

[MGorse]

He is gone, after i restricted him from posting he left.

 

I wonder if he will write about it on his blog. He must have made some rather interesting posts, but obviously they must have been deleted.

[tombo82685]

I wonder if he will write about it on his blog. He must have made some rather interesting posts, but obviously they must have been deleted.

yea, i got rid of them...his arguments didn't bother me it's just the way how he carried it out. He was pretty arrogant in my eyes.

[MGorse]

yea, i got rid of them...his arguments didn't bother me it's just the way how he carried it out. He was pretty arrogant in my eyes.

 

Thanks Tom for the info.

[Mitchell Gaines]

yea, i got rid of them...his arguments didn't bother me it's just the way how he carried it out. He was pretty arrogant in my eyes.

Thanks for looking into this.

[ChescoWx]

Well it looks like it is that time again to start with the Vendor Forecast Discussions so here goes...I just reviewed both JBs Weatherbell and SDs NJPA Weather videos and they are both talking about the potential storm for next week. Now I know you will all be shocked by this but JB is more bullish on snow somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast....also sees this pattern delivering the coldest 5 day pre-Thanksgiving weather relative to normal to the area since 1989. Steve D over at NJPA is more restrained as he talks of how with temps in the 40's whatever snow does fall would have trouble sticking.

 

I did take a look at the ECMF for KMQS (Coatesville) and it has it below freezing for 3 days with well over an inch of liquid falling....will no doubt change multiple times but could be something to watch over the next week. 

[ChescoWx]

to paraphrase - latest from JB at WB

 

He updated his December forecast for commercial clients and made it colder than he had before. He mentions that the first of the big three holidays will probably have enough cold and storminess around to cause disruptions in travel plans- he sees the cold looks taking hold, after any warm-up that goes through after the current cold shot

[Quakertown needs snow]

thanks for the updates

[ChescoWx]

Regarding the threat next week Steve at NJPA weather sees a possibility of snow above 1000-1500ft in PA and NJ with a wind driven cold rain at the coast. Does think some snow and rain can mix in at times. JB at WB not saying anything more than a big storm is likely along the coast with the coldest last week of the November since 1976/2002. Showed the Euro with the heavy snow well North and West of the cities with the GFS closer to the NW burbs.

[donsutherland1]

FYI, Glenn Schwartz has released his winter forecast. It can be found at:

 

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-232835491.html

[GD0815]

FYI, Glenn Schwartz has released his winter forecast. It can be found at:

 

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-232835491.html

good forecast, i think a slightly warmer/drier winter seems the most likely given ENSO, plus the probable intermittent at best blocking

[Violentweatherfan]

FYI, Glenn Schwartz has released his winter forecast. It can be found at:

 

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-232835491.html

Nice find and thanks for the share, great article.

[Violentweatherfan]

good forecast, i think a slightly warmer/drier winter seems the most likely given ENSO, plus the probable intermittent at best blocking

 

Please...

[ChescoWx]

JB sees a blend of 11/24/38 - 11/25/71 and 11/23/89 - with pretty heavy interior snows - should be interesting to track

[ChescoWx]

Those storms featured by JB had the following snow/rain totals in Chester County
11/24/38 - 10.0" snow
11/25/71 - 2.05" (all rain)
11/23/89 - 4.6" snow

[easternsnowman]

Hurricane's forecast is well though and a good one! He also says the further N & W of the city the better you will do

[Quakertown needs snow]

Good Luck Glenn.

He leaves door open to edit later, if needed.

[NJ_Ken]

Those storms featured by JB had the following snow/rain totals in Chester County

11/24/38 - 10.0" snow

11/25/71 - 2.05" (all rain)

11/23/89 - 4.6" snow

 

For comparison sake, those same storms in Philadelphia ('71 and '89 would have been measured at PHL, and I forget where the "official" Philadelphia measurements were taken in 1938 but I am almost certain it was somewhere in Center City, perhaps at the Franklin Institute):

 

11/24/38:  4.6" snow (followed two days later by a separate storm of 7.2" of snow - not a bad 4-day period for November)

11/25/71:  1.98" rain with a trace of snow observed at some point (that trace could literally... and probably does... refer to a single sleet pellet or snowflake observed as the rain was ending).

11/23/89:  4.6" snow

[ChescoWx]

After reviewing today's 12z runs - JB still likes the strong ECWMF/Canadian/JMA alliance with a track from New Orleans to Nantucket - his thoughts from early week still on track - big early season NE PA snow!
Steve D - thinks EC on right track but will be a bit more amplified than currently showing

[ChescoWx]

JB mention in his PM update that the 12z run of the GFS ensemble was much more to his liking as far as the storm next week and the ECWMF run of the model was better, although he suspects the likeliness of a splitting southern max. Keeping in mind it has a sizeable snowstorm in the interior Northeast. He thinks what is more likely to happen is the southern branch feeding in and leading to a bigger northeast snow, with the axis of heaviest close by to where it has it, and less snow in the southeast.