Animal Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 420pm update from JB He sees the core of the heaviest snow in the I70 corridor in the mid west but the worst part of this may be over NJ because of the wind that can develop. The big cities of southern New England should end up a miss, with PHL BWI. IAD beating NYC, but he says he likes the 4 inch line right over the CPK. He will have his new numbers at around 6pm on his site - he already told his commercial clients If central park get 4 inches, I would be very impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I certainly respect your opinion. I would point out that the statement was made several hours ago with model data that was much more aggressive than what we have now. I disagreed with the forecast and not with the ability of the forecaster. Otherwise, I would not like to turn this into the NY forum, where people spend more time criticizing each other than they do forecasting the weather. OK, I provided the rationale behind belief that DT's forecast amounts for SE PA were sound, but you gave no reason for your 4-6" and your disagreement with DT's forecast, and when you do that, you just come across as a weenie. So what was your rationale for this statement?: According to that map, DYL gets only 1"-2". I don't buy it. I'll stick to 4"-6" in that area and wouldn't be surprised to bust with even higher amounts there You mentioned that you were reacting to the models at the time. I'm sure DT saw the same models and you were commenting on DT's forecast. If you can give a realistic reason why you think DT's forecast was unreasonable, then I could respect that opinion. Otherwise, it just comes across as a wishcast. By the way, unacceptable rationale is 1) "the NAM has it" and 2) "JB said so". Improperly-conrolled weenies destroy the NYC forum. Could the storm surprise? Sure, just like Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997, when we picked up 8". But the bulk of that came overnight. I watched it snow, heavy at times, all afternoon Mar 31 with very little accumulation, even on grassy surfaces. Toward nightfall, it started to accumulate and we were fortunate to be stuck in that narrow deformation band most of the night. This storm's timing seems to be less "fortuitous" for SE PA with most of the precip falling through the daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 For those waiting with baited breath! JB paraphrase He sees a major late winter storm centered in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic. He says snow accumulating areas have to be thought of with a bigger range at this time of the year because of melting problems, and the fact that where ratios are still under 32 can still be high. He believes this is the biggest snowstorm of the year for DC to Philadelphia, but not in NYC because of the earlier snow and the core of the heaviest snow to the south. This should produce in the cities, though not as much as in the suburbs. His map looks like 4 to 8 for most of SC PA and into the Western Philly burbs . It looks like 8"+ on a line from the nearby western Philly burbs straight east to the coast say 40 miles either side of a West Chester to AC line (at least that is my read of his map...which I can't post here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 For those waiting with baited breath! JB paraphrase He sees a major late winter storm centered in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic. He says snow accumulating areas have to be thought of with a bigger range at this time of the year because of melting problems, and the fact that where ratios are still under 32 can still be high. He believes this is the biggest snowstorm of the year for DC to Philadelphia, but not in NYC because of the earlier snow and the core of the heaviest snow to the south. This should produce in the cities, though not as much as in the suburbs. His map looks like 4 to 8 for most of SC PA and into the Western Philly burbs . It looks like 8"+ on a line from the nearby western Philly burbs straight east to the coast say 40 miles either side of a West Chester to AC line (at least that is my read of his map...which I can't post here) JB is going out on a limb.8 inches for the PA TPK east is a bold call. Hopefully he is correct. Would be nice if someone in the Mt Holly zone gets 8 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 I have a tough time seeing anyone below 500ft seeing even 6" out of this....and tough to see anyone below the fall line at more than 4"....but what do I know....I leave it to the professionals JB is going out on a limb.8 inches for the PA TPK east is a bold call. Hopefully he is correct. Would be nice if someone in the Mt Holly zone gets 8 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Latest FB post from Steve D at NJPA weather.. Based on the latest observations and model guidance, I decided to lower and adjust were the best potential for snowfall accumulation will be located. The storm is still forming after producing a surprise snowfall over portions of northern Virginia with snowfall amounts over 3 inches. The development of this snowfall is a great example of what can happen when you have very strong dynamics at play. However, this snowfall primarily developed away from the coast, not on the Virginia or Maryland coast. As such, to assume the same for southern New Jersey is going to be a mistake because unlike northern Virginia, southern New Jersey is far more under the influence of a warm Atlantic Ocean which will have strong easterly wind in play. As such, the forecast along the coast (yes even with the NWS Winter Storm Warning) is still a trace to 3″ of snow with most accumulation on grassy and cold surfaces. The latest 00Z NAM and several runs of the RAP guidance project temperatures in the mid to upper 30′s throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas and that is with strong lifting involved. Say hello to that strong March sun! As such, plenty of snow in the air but not much actually accumulating, especially on the pavement. I dropped snowfall totals in the Hudson Valley, northwestern New Jersey, and much over northeastern Pennsylvania to 2 to 4 inches from the original 3-6″ or 4-8″ due to moisture transport thus far being suppressed and a very dry air mass in place so far. I have no doubt snow will fall and will accumulate, especially for elevations above 700 feet. However the problem is a lack of moisture, thus lowering snowfall totals here. For locations like Lancaster and Reading, Pennsylvania (basically west of Philadelphia); I still like my 3″ to 6″ snowfall forecast but most locations near the 3″ mark. I will continue to keep an eye on this storm and update through tomorrow! Post to Facebook 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Add to Tumblr Send via Gmail Post to Google+ Add to LinkedIn Send via E-mail program Post to Twitter 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Comments Share Article Save to Instapaper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Latest tweet from Steve D.....@nynjpaweather: New forecast looks very good. NWS, your move!....he was not a fan of warning snows for South Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Latest tweet from Steve D.....@nynjpaweather: New forecast looks very good. NWS, your move!....he was not a fan of warning snows for South Jersey Steve might beat me on this one back home... don't think I should've bumped it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 DT's Final/Final/Final.... https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=503602616353668&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Steve D's too high across Eastern PA but I think he's got NJ pretty well pinned down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 DT's Final/Final/Final.... https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=503602616353668&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Not looking too good for his 2-4 call in the NW zones at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Latest FB post from Steve D at NJPA weather.. Based on the latest observations and model guidance, I decided to lower and adjust were the best potential for snowfall accumulation will be located. The storm is still forming after producing a surprise snowfall over portions of northern Virginia with snowfall amounts over 3 inches. The development of this snowfall is a great example of what can happen when you have very strong dynamics at play. However, this snowfall primarily developed away from the coast, not on the Virginia or Maryland coast. As such, to assume the same for southern New Jersey is going to be a mistake because unlike northern Virginia, southern New Jersey is far more under the influence of a warm Atlantic Ocean which will have strong easterly wind in play. As such, the forecast along the coast (yes even with the NWS Winter Storm Warning) is still a trace to 3″ of snow with most accumulation on grassy and cold surfaces. The latest 00Z NAM and several runs of the RAP guidance project temperatures in the mid to upper 30′s throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas and that is with strong lifting involved. Say hello to that strong March sun! As such, plenty of snow in the air but not much actually accumulating, especially on the pavement. I dropped snowfall totals in the Hudson Valley, northwestern New Jersey, and much over northeastern Pennsylvania to 2 to 4 inches from the original 3-6″ or 4-8″ due to moisture transport thus far being suppressed and a very dry air mass in place so far. I have no doubt snow will fall and will accumulate, especially for elevations above 700 feet. However the problem is a lack of moisture, thus lowering snowfall totals here. For locations like Lancaster and Reading, Pennsylvania (basically west of Philadelphia); I still like my 3″ to 6″ snowfall forecast but most locations near the 3″ mark. I will continue to keep an eye on this storm and update through tomorrow! Post to Facebook 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Add to Tumblr Send via Gmail Post to Google+ Add to LinkedIn Send via E-mail program Post to Twitter 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Comments Share Article Save to Instapaper Latest tweet from Steve D.....@nynjpaweather: New forecast looks very good. NWS, your move!....he was not a fan of warning snows for South Jersey He can say all he wants, but I do not get why he tends to forecast snow amounts such as "trace to 3 inches". Does he not realize a trace of snow is simply, for example, flurries? A trace is non-measurable snow, therefore he would verify with flurries all the way up to 3 inches. I suspect his trace is probably a coating, but if that is the case then state that and do not use "trace". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 He can say all he wants, but I do not get why he tends to forecast snow amounts such as "trace to 3 inches". Does he not realize a trace of snow is simply, for example, flurries? A trace is non-measurable snow, therefore he would verify with flurries all the way up to 3 inches. I suspect his trace is probably a coating, but if that is the case then state that and do not use "trace". Mike, just think about how we get to laugh at JB one more time, and it'll make you feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Mike, just think about how we get to laugh at JB one more time, and it'll make you feel better It just gets frustrating when you see some people, especially professional's, basically calling out the NWS but then look at the forecast they themselves have going. Trace to 3 inches of snow? Come on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 It just gets frustrating when you see some people, especially professional's, basically calling out the NWS but then look at the forecast they themselves have going. Trace to 3 inches of snow? Come on! They'd be better to just put that 0-16 map that was used for Snowquester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 what a mess. glad this is the last storm to track, well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted March 25, 2013 Share Posted March 25, 2013 Mike: Maybe this will make you smile: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=504001216313808&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 so how many power outtages have occured with this blockbuster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 so how many power outtages have occured with this blockbuster? Catastrophic amounts. I hear it'll be months til they're all fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 so how many power outtages have occured with this blockbuster? Catastrophic amounts. I hear it'll be months til they're all fixed. Rogue storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 It just gets frustrating when you see some people, especially professional's, basically calling out the NWS but then look at the forecast they themselves have going. Trace to 3 inches of snow? Come on! Obviously I am not unbiased with this event; nevertheless I thought that was an unprofessional and cheap shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Catastrophic amounts. I hear it'll be months til they're all fixed. Zing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 JB's subscriber base that continue to pay for his content (Paul excluded, I understand the approach/desire to consume as many wx inputs as possible) must be something like the folks that used to call the pshyic hotlines that were always advertised in the 90s. Or like the people that go to a John Edwards show expecting legit comms with the deceased. He's seem to get even more spectacularly worse as the years go on, but stills manages to ride whatever may be left of his rep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Catastrophic amounts. I hear it'll be months til they're all fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Obviously I am not unbiased with this event; nevertheless I thought that was an unprofessional and cheap shot. That is a good way to put it Tony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 I was not sure where to post this, but figured I would place it here for now. This is from Mike Smith's blog. Those of you who do not know Mike Smith, he works for AccuWeather. The blog linked below is him pretty much slamming the NWS Impact Based Warnings. These are being tested in the NWS Central Region (started last year at some offices, but now is being expanded to all Central Region NWS offices this season). Granted there are some issues with it, but it is an experiment. Anyhow, I thought some may be interested in what he had to say. http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2013/03/ill-conceived-storm-warning-experiment.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 between 3/13 and 3/27 this is the 8th coldest stretch since 1960. coldest since '93. sorry jb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 For 3/1-3/27, since 1963: Rank Value Year 1 35.0 1984 2 37.3 1967 3 37.6 1965, 1978, 1993, 1981 7 38.2 2005 8 38.3 1996, 1970 10 39.2 1980 11 39.4 1969 12 40.1 1989 13 40.4 1972, 1971 15 40.5 2013 16 40.7 1992 17 40.9 1999, 1963 19 41.1 2001, 1975 21 41.3 1982 22 41.9 1998 23 42.2 1968 24 42.3 1994, 1997 26 42.4 1986, 2007 28 42.5 2009 29 42.8 1985 30 43.1 1966 31 43.2 1988 32 43.3 2006, 1964 34 43.6 1974 35 44.0 1983 36 44.1 2003, 1987 38 44.4 2002 39 44.7 2011, 2008 41 44.9 2004 42 45.4 1979 43 45.5 1991, 1976 45 46.7 1990, 1977 47 47.0 1995 48 47.1 1973 49 47.7 2000 50 48.1 2010 51 52.5 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 I was not sure where to post this, but figured I would place it here for now. This is from Mike Smith's blog. Those of you who do not know Mike Smith, he works for AccuWeather. The blog linked below is him pretty much slamming the NWS Impact Based Warnings. These are being tested in the NWS Central Region (started last year at some offices, but now is being expanded to all Central Region NWS offices this season). Granted there are some issues with it, but it is an experiment. Anyhow, I thought some may be interested in what he had to say. http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2013/03/ill-conceived-storm-warning-experiment.html It's pretty sad to see such attacks, especially as the product is experimental. NWS deserves credit for piloting new forecasting products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 I love the experiment. Kudos for trying new things. I guess we do have to worry about "crying wolf syndrome" when the tornado misses areas mentioned in the forecast. The wording does come across as way over the top when it says "mass Devastation is highly likely, making the area unrecognizable to survivors." and then a tornado doesn't hit the area at all. Could actually end up increasing warning fatigue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.