famartin Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 For the first 18 days of March, here are the rankings at PHL since 1963: 1 31.1 1984 2 32.7 1978 3 35.6 1993, 1969 5 35.9 1970 6 36.0 2005, 1996 8 36.8 1981 9 37.0 1980 10 38.0 1967 11 38.1 1975 12 38.2 1965 13 38.6 1989 14 38.7 1968 15 38.9 1963, 2007 17 39.1 1999 18 39.5 1994 19 39.9 2003, 1982 21 40.6 2001, 1998 23 40.8 2013 24 41.0 1987, 1986 26 41.1 1972 27 41.2 1971 28 41.3 1997 29 41.6 1976, 1992 31 42.0 2009 32 42.1 1988, 1966 34 43.0 1985 35 43.5 1964 36 44.1 1991, 1979 38 44.4 2008 39 44.5 2006 40 44.6 1974 41 44.7 2004 42 45.2 1983 43 45.5 2002 44 45.7 2010, 1995, 2011 47 47.7 2000 48 48.2 1990 49 48.7 1973 50 48.9 1977 51 49.9 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 It is kind of interesting that March 1977 was the second warmest on the list. The winter of 76/77 was famously frigid in the eastern half of the U.S. By late January 1977, schools were closed across the Ohio Valley (partly due to extreme cold and partly due to a power shortage caused by frozen rivers blocking coal transport). Then, in February, it was like somebody flipped a switch. Not only did the extreme cold break, but it got downright warmish, hence the very warm temps in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 20, 2013 Share Posted March 20, 2013 @BigJoeBastardi: GFS blasting Plains to east coast, between I80 and I 70.. looks a bit like April 1982 storm. http://t.co/VDPx6H6Uwn post on this @BigJoeBastardi: Mid nation to mid atlantic mauler deals crocus crushing,daffodil destroying,tulip terminating, petunia pounding snows http://t.co/8tOHnIzuSq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 For the first 18 days of March, here are the rankings at PHL since 1963: 1 31.1 1984 2 32.7 1978 3 35.6 1993, 1969 5 35.9 1970 6 36.0 2005, 1996 8 36.8 1981 9 37.0 1980 10 38.0 1967 11 38.1 1975 12 38.2 1965 13 38.6 1989 14 38.7 1968 15 38.9 1963, 2007 17 39.1 1999 18 39.5 1994 19 39.9 2003, 1982 21 40.6 2001, 1998 23 40.8 2013 24 41.0 1987, 1986 26 41.1 1972 27 41.2 1971 28 41.3 1997 29 41.6 1976, 1992 31 42.0 2009 32 42.1 1988, 1966 34 43.0 1985 35 43.5 1964 36 44.1 1991, 1979 38 44.4 2008 39 44.5 2006 40 44.6 1974 41 44.7 2004 42 45.2 1983 43 45.5 2002 44 45.7 2010, 1995, 2011 47 47.7 2000 48 48.2 1990 49 48.7 1973 50 48.9 1977 51 49.9 2012 So...coldest since 2005... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 He speculates can this be the Denver to Dover Daffodil Destroyer? Of course he thinks everyone will now say okay, thats it , its trending south. But he wants all to be aware that this is what we should expect with the models at this timeframe. While he doesn't see it being able to pull the mean trough back, it will still be strong enough to come far enough north so the snow target zone will be between I-80 and I70 from the Rockies to the east coast He notes that the day of the storm, ( Saturday plains to Monday East coast) near record low maxes can occur in the snow and of course after this the snow on ground will enhance the cold. Overall he thinks that unlike the example of the storm suppressed earlier in March, this should trend back north a bit because 1) It does have more separation in front of it 2) the Indexes are trending out of the pits toward up ao/nao while the PNA is trending toward neutral 3) its March and storms love to adjust north He also made a point yesterday that the Weather Bell winter forecast should verify for most of their swath of 125% of normal snow for the season....with the only exception being from ABE to DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Updated ranking through March 20th: 1 32.5 1984 2 34.0 1978 3 35.0 1993 4 36.1 1981 5 36.2 1970 6 36.6 2005 7 36.7 1967 8 36.8 1996 9 37.0 1969 10 37.7 1965 11 37.8 1980 12 38.4 1989 13 38.7 1963 14 39.1 2007 15 39.2 1975 16 39.6 1994, 1999 18 40.0 1968 19 40.5 2003, 1982 21 40.9 1998 22 41.0 1972, 2001, 2013 25 41.1 1992 26 41.2 1971 27 41.3 1997 28 41.4 1987 29 41.8 1988 30 42.1 1986 31 42.2 2009 32 42.6 1966 33 42.9 1985 34 43.0 1964, 1976 36 43.8 2006 37 44.2 2004, 1979 39 44.6 1991, 1974 41 44.9 2008 42 45.4 2002 43 45.8 1983 44 46.0 2011 45 46.1 1995 46 46.9 2010, 2000 48 47.9 1973 49 48.0 1977 50 48.1 1990 51 51.2 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Here's the rankings thru March 31st, so we know where we're "supposed" to be going. 1 35.5 1984 2 37.6 1965 3 38.3 1970 4 38.5 1967 5 38.6 1996 6 39.0 1978 7 39.5 2005 8 39.6 1969 9 39.8 1993 10 40.0 1981 11 40.2 1980 12 40.7 1971, 1972 14 41.1 2001 15 41.2 1975 16 41.5 1992 17 41.6 1982 18 42.2 1989 19 42.4 1999 20 42.5 1966 21 42.6 1964 22 42.8 1994, 1963 24 43.3 1974 25 43.6 1983, 2009 27 43.7 2007 28 44.0 1997 29 44.1 2011 30 44.4 1968, 1986 32 44.5 2006, 1985 34 44.6 1988 35 44.8 2008 36 44.9 2003 37 45.1 2004 38 45.5 1998, 2002 40 45.7 1987 41 46.1 1990, 1991 43 46.3 1976 44 47.0 1979 45 47.1 1973 46 47.2 1995 47 48.0 2000 48 48.3 2010 49 48.8 1977 50 52.2 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 <3 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 If someone could just make sure its "kinda" green back there by, oh, May 3rd or so, that'd be greeeeaaaaat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 If someone could just make sure its "kinda" green back there by, oh, May 3rd or so, that'd be greeeeaaaaat.... probably soggy green covered in pollen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 probably soggy green covered in pollen Whatever works, green is green. As in, not Elko's desert brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Through Today in NW Chester County if the month ended today (so not truly representative) this would be the 6th Coldest March in the last 30 years.... Here's the rankings thru March 31st, so we know where we're "supposed" to be going. 1 35.5 1984 2 37.6 1965 3 38.3 1970 4 38.5 1967 5 38.6 1996 6 39.0 1978 7 39.5 2005 8 39.6 1969 9 39.8 1993 10 40.0 1981 11 40.2 1980 12 40.7 1971, 1972 14 41.1 2001 15 41.2 1975 16 41.5 1992 17 41.6 1982 18 42.2 1989 19 42.4 1999 20 42.5 1966 21 42.6 1964 22 42.8 1994, 1963 24 43.3 1974 25 43.6 1983, 2009 27 43.7 2007 28 44.0 1997 29 44.1 2011 30 44.4 1968, 1986 32 44.5 2006, 1985 34 44.6 1988 35 44.8 2008 36 44.9 2003 37 45.1 2004 38 45.5 1998, 2002 40 45.7 1987 41 46.1 1990, 1991 43 46.3 1976 44 47.0 1979 45 47.1 1973 46 47.2 1995 47 48.0 2000 48 48.3 2010 49 48.8 1977 50 52.2 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 ......Paraphrasing from that well respected MET - JB today Indicates that he is only restrained from throwing caution to the wind by the Euro (which he says is trending to the bigger and further north idea) from saying the upcoming storm is April 6-7, 1982 again (major snow storm from the Plains to Northeast, maybe the greatest latest west/east snows on record). He also mentions that the pattern does not look that dissimilar from another legendary storm recently... February 5-6, 2010! (that is for the weenies) The WB forecast has a "sleddable snow of 4"-8" that was issued a couple of days ago running from Ohio all across Southern PA and then up I95 toward Beantown. He goes on to say the "uncertainty" is not a question of if it will snow - it will , but how nasty can this get. Surprisingly JB finds the "extreme option is not laughable" and in fact given the time of the year, extreme describes what may happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If someone could just make sure its "kinda" green back there by, oh, May 3rd or so, that'd be greeeeaaaaat.... If you do your TPS reports it will be. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 If you do your TPS reports it will be. Thanks. Do I need the new cover sheets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 JB tweet today "Model precip and ratios not to be trusted as deepening upper air "bowling ball" and unusual cold air similar to 1982 storm stumped many" "My point about snow amounts in the east.. as we get closer,the reality of what the model is showing sfc/aloft will translate to totals" "On Your World With Neil Cavuto 4 oclock hour eastern. Have updated snowstorm idea ( not much change) Major I-70/I80 corridor to plains East" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 JB tweet today "Model precip and ratios not to be trusted as deepening upper air "bowling ball" and unusual cold air similar to 1982 storm stumped many" at him comparing the modeling of today with that of 1982. I mean, I roll my eyes at a lot of what JB posts, but this is just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Ray I don't think he meant the models - he was saying the upper air pattern is similar....I bet he gets the upper air pattern right - now if verification follows....well that is a bigger problem at him comparing the modeling of today with that of 1982. I mean, I roll my eyes at a lot of what JB posts, but this is just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 My snowthrower is gassed up and on standby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The best dam movie I tell you. The models have fit this quote perfectly It was a "Jump to Conclusions" mat. You see, it would be this mat that you would put on the floor... and would have different CONCLUSIONS written on it that you could JUMP TO. or If things go well I might be showing her my O-face. "Oh... Oh... Oh!" You know what I'm talkin' about. "Oh!" or Hello Peter, whats happening? Ummm, I'm gonna need you to go ahead come in tomorrow. So if you could be here around 9 that would be great, mmmk... oh oh! and I almost forgot ahh, I'm also gonna need you to go ahead and come in on Sunday too, kay. We ahh lost some people this week and ah, we sorta need to play catch up or No. No, man. ****, no, man. I believe you'd get your ass kicked sayin' something like that, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The best dam movie I tell you. The models have fit this quote perfectly It was a "Jump to Conclusions" mat. You see, it would be this mat that you would put on the floor... and would have different CONCLUSIONS written on it that you could JUMP TO. or If things go well I might be showing her my O-face. "Oh... Oh... Oh!" You know what I'm talkin' about. "Oh!" or Hello Peter, whats happening? Ummm, I'm gonna need you to go ahead come in tomorrow. So if you could be here around 9 that would be great, mmmk... oh oh! and I almost forgot ahh, I'm also gonna need you to go ahead and come in on Sunday too, kay. We ahh lost some people this week and ah, we sorta need to play catch up or No. No, man. ****, no, man. I believe you'd get your ass kicked sayin' something like that, man. The NAM has the same issue as the equation to add .00001 cents for every transaction from accounting they use in that movie that's how it's qpf always ends up through the roof it's all michael boltons fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Steve D. http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2013/03/23/first-call-snow-fall-forecast-for-march-25-2013/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 lot of jb twitting today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 To Andy's point JB tweeting away....not surprisingly he is not buyin what GFS is selling! @BigJoeBastardi: http://t.co/VDPx6H6Uwn Snow acc map from Friday.Enclosed read area is where amounts could be several higher than idea http://t.co/mk3jKP9mSW @BigJoeBastardi: Big worry is this turns into a windblown power outage storm near east coast, where snow is wetter Almost all snow NYC,PHL! @BigJoeBastardi: For "snow hole" people around PHL, this should be biggest storm of season ( DC too, but PHL probably gets more. see map) @BigJoeBastardi: I am not staring at model precip printo out as upward motion and temps at snow formation levels, change ratios, even late cold storm inland @BigJoeBastardi: What a March, eh. Remember the http://t.co/kvqB5raSEp idea BEFORE the fact was for coldest since 96. Actually will be snowier than 96! @BigJoeBastardi: Nam aiming heaviest snows at the "snowhole" that has missed in east. Keep in mind these are 10 to 1 ratios. http://t.co/lm0MXbVYR4 @BigJoeBastardi: RGEM precip/pressure presentation Monday am http://t.co/YZRRSUYtzO @BigJoeBastardi: Not buying GFS suppression as RGEM/NAM both north Lets see what ECMWF says but I like what I have GFS may be adding confusion,not solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The best dam movie I tell you. The models have fit this quote perfectly It was a "Jump to Conclusions" mat. You see, it would be this mat that you would put on the floor... and would have different CONCLUSIONS written on it that you could JUMP TO. or If things go well I might be showing her my O-face. "Oh... Oh... Oh!" You know what I'm talkin' about. "Oh!" or Hello Peter, whats happening? Ummm, I'm gonna need you to go ahead come in tomorrow. So if you could be here around 9 that would be great, mmmk... oh oh! and I almost forgot ahh, I'm also gonna need you to go ahead and come in on Sunday too, kay. We ahh lost some people this week and ah, we sorta need to play catch up or No. No, man. ****, no, man. I believe you'd get your ass kicked sayin' something like that, man. You forgot the responses by Michael and Samir to Tom's "jump to conclusions" mat... and, yes, they are fitting, too: "That is the worst idea I ever heard in my life" "Yes, that is horrible, this idea". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 sorry JB, ecm says no snow for the snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think jb is right about it being the biggest snow for philly this season...won't take much! gfs and euro give some snow....of course north and west do much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think jb is right about it being the biggest snow for philly this season...won't take much! gfs and euro give some snow....of course north and west do much better. You are, sadly, right that it wouldn't take much. PHL's biggest event this season remains a measily 1.5". However, the GFS and EC both keep surface temps at PHL between 34 and 36F while its actually precipitating. And precipitation rates on both are meager. Plus the bulk falls during daylight. You simply aren't going to get accumulation that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 You are, sadly, right that it wouldn't take much. PHL's biggest event this season remains a measily 1.5". However, the GFS and EC both keep surface temps at PHL between 34 and 36F while its actually precipitating. And precipitation rates on both are meager. Plus the bulk falls during daylight. You simply aren't going to get accumulation that way. That's why elevation is so important especially with this setup. I can see areas in chester county getting a decent amount while the airport gets another one of it's infamous trace amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 That's why elevation is so important especially with this setup. I can see areas in chester county getting a decent amount while the airport gets another one of it's infamous trace amounts. Yes... but that's not what JB said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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