famartin Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 In the olden days, when I was a young man ( ), a rule which was tossed around was that whenever the GFS was NW and the EC was SE, something odd was going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Latest from JB - a lot of winter weather ahead of us the next 10 to 20 days "the storm that develops in the gulf Tuesday night heads for the mid atlantic coast Thursday with a swath of snow north of it and some ice on the southern side. The axis of most likely snow.. 100 miles either side of the line Amarillo to Atlantic City. And this could have some 4 inch plus amounts, the greatest threat in Texas and Oklahoma part of this and the mid and perhaps n atlantic states. In the no rest for the weary pattern, a weekend buckling means business and this could lead to a more widespread storm from the plains to the east coast this weekend" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 LC, does not sound to promising. http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-february-9-2013-at-7-30-p-m-ct-part-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Man Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 LC, does not sound to promising. http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-february-9-2013-at-7-30-p-m-ct-part-2 LC says no then it is a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Any suggestions as to a private source for the ECMWF when I'm off work such as the one you all get by 1pm. I'm looking for something cheaper than what I have now. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Any suggestions as to a private source for the ECMWF when I'm off work such as the one you all get by 1pm. I'm looking for something cheaper than what I have now. Thanks. Mitchell, Stormvista is nice, probably the fast on all models as to when it cmes out. The cost 30 a month. You could also do weatherbell, but it is slower than SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Mitchell, Stormvista is nice, probably the fast on all models as to when it cmes out. The cost 30 a month. You could also do weatherbell, but it is slower than SV I agree with Tom. AccuWx Pro also gets it; the maps are late but the text data comes out almost as fast as the SV maps, from what I understand. Wunderground of course has generated snow graphics, for free, but I wouldn't want to use them without some additional data to compare them to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Thanks. I've had accu-pro for a while and it costs $250 a year. Weatherbell looks like $160 a year? If they have the full EC that might work best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Thanks. I've had accu-pro for a while and it costs $250 a year. Weatherbell looks like $160 a year? If they have the full EC that might work best. May be a good tax refund gift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Thanks. I've had accu-pro for a while and it costs $250 a year. Weatherbell looks like $160 a year? If they have the full EC that might work best. You can also get a discount on Weather Bell from that link that the Bobby guy from the Philly region posted. Hopefully he will see this and tell you how to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 DT says euro ensembles look good for east coast snow storm........ Wxrisk.com2 hours ago *** ALERT *** 12Z EURO ENSEMBLE MUCH MORE " BULLISH " THAN REGULAR ECMWF ... REGARDING ON THREAT FOR MAJOR EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FEB 16 -17 https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk?fref=ts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What, no JB update on the 2/13 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What, no JB update on the 2/13 event? Insert Generic Jan 96' comparison here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Insert Generic Jan 96' comparison here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1360631288.053731.jpg If he scaled that back by an inch and maybe nudged it south 20 miles that's a really good map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Insert Generic Jan 96' comparison here... He's invoking a March '93 analog for ending winter late Feb as MJO goes to 4 & 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Insert Generic Jan 96' comparison here... He's invoking a March '93 analog for ending winter late Feb as MJO goes to 4 & 5 One of my favorite Pocono events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hi Mike Unfortunately my real job gets in the way of my hobby.....but here is the latest from JB - back on Sunday he had his axis of heaviest snows from Amarillo to AC....he has moved that north a bit - see below. But overall another good forecast from JB from several days out. Paraphrase below He likes the GFS amounts overall and doesn't want to pick a fight with it. His gut feeling is the models will "see: the idea that the back shortwave is stronger, the front weaker on the weekend system with a blend of all models including Canadian developing a wave on the arctic front in the Carolinas Sunday that bombs to the northeast. But until he sees the ECMWF agree with him and swing it west his confidence is not yet high on this. He knows that with a ridge that far back and model feedback, the usual correction is west and though the Canadian is overdone, added to the mix it gives me a nice blend. Says when we have a storm that in some places is dumping the heaviest of the year in front of us ( south of the blizzard certainly , and of course back in the Texas Panhandle, and we are worried about what is 5 days away it is clearly getting very interesting. He reiterates that there is more beyond that, for while the MJO is heading out of the favored phases now you can start giving the NAO the love it deserves What, no JB update on the 2/13 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hi Mike Unfortunately my real job gets in the way of my hobby.....but here is the latest from JB - back on Sunday he had his axis of heaviest snows from Amarillo to AC....he has moved that north a bit - see below. But overall another good forecast from JB from several days out. Thanks (I was just messing with you). I was not sitting on the edge of my seat waiting for you to post a JB update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Thanks. I've had accu-pro for a while and it costs $250 a year. Weatherbell looks like $160 a year? If they have the full EC that might work best. $140 WB would be through this link using EPAWA referral discount... http://www.weatherbell.com/register/?referral_code=EPAWA If you can ignore the rhetoric from the forecasters and just use it for Dr. Maue's model products it is worth it. He actually has individual EPS ENS member forecasts for selected cities now, temp and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 He's invoking a March '93 analog for ending winter late Feb as MJO goes to 4 & 5 FWIW, no February KU snowstorms have occurred with the MJO in phases 4 or 5 (the March 1993 superstorm occurred with the MJO in Phase 4). In contrast, 56.7% have occurred with the MJO in Phases 1-3 (actually Phase 1 or Phase 3). All Phase 1 KU storms had an amplitude < 1. 44.4% of February KU snowstorms occurred with the MJO in phases 6-8. All of those storms occurred with an amplitude of 1 or above. If one expands the pool to include February and March KU storms, 46.2% occurred in Phases 1-3, All the phase 1 storms had an amplitude <1. 7.7% occurred in Phases 4-5, and 46.2% occurred in Phases 6-8. 85.7% of KU storms in all other phases had an amplitude of 1 or above. It should be noted that the 1979 President's Day snowstorm saw the MJO move into Phase 4 during the storm. So, that might offer a small ray of hope. In short, if there's going to be another KU storm (and I really don't think the weekend/President's Day period looks particularly good and the MJO's forecast to be in Phase 4 at that time argues against such an outcome), it would probably occur prior to the MJO moving into Phases 4-5 or afterward. Tomorrow evening's storm won't be a KU storm. Hence, one would probably have to be looking toward late February or early March for the next possibility if the MJO data for KU storms is representative. This does not mean that Philadelphia cannot expect to receive snows. February 6-7, 2003 (7.1") and February 3-4, 2009 (8.4") are some of the larger snowfalls that occurred when the MJO was in Phases 4 or 5 in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 ABOUT THE WEEKEND THREAT TO THE EAST COAST why I am NOT yet willing to say ..."its out to sea for EVERYONE.. and give the "ALL CLEAR" signal #DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 any final call(s) for DT yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I don't lump DT with these other guys as I think he is pretty good. How we forget how many times he did phone/video chats for the American and (mostly) Eastern weather boards. I'm sorry he had a falling out but that doesn't make him a bad met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I don't lump DT with these other guys as I think he is pretty good. How we forget how many times he did phone/video chats for the American and (mostly) Eastern weather boards. I'm sorry he had a falling out but that doesn't make him a bad met. his character & demeanor blew it for him..BIG TIME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Still doesn't mean he is a bad met.......I've been on these boards for about ten years so I am very familiar with his demeanor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 been around as long as you as well...can't even recall all the iterations of "weather boards"! I'm not contesting his abilities..just that it's hard to have much respect for him...a shame for his sake (more so than for us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 fair point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I don't lump DT with these other guys as I think he is pretty good. How we forget how many times he did phone/video chats for the American and (mostly) Eastern weather boards. I'm sorry he had a falling out but that doesn't make him a bad met. i lost track how many times he left and came back 1st at Eastern then at American Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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