Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Vendor Forecast Discussion


am19psu

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Although early for Kudos....no doubt JB was all over this with his Lindsey Storm analog for NYC from early last weekend. No doubt many will use the old..... even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then but.....since he is usually only criticized thought I would post a positive note here

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Although early for Kudos....no doubt JB was all over this with his Lindsey Storm analog for NYC from early last weekend. No doubt many will use the old..... even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then but.....since he is usually only criticized thought I would post a positive note here

 

And the back patting starts!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

just posted by DT on fb........................

 

 

 

*** ALERT *** 0z FRIDAY GFS .... the worlds most clueless and over replied Upon Model... says NO HISTORIC NEW ENGLAND SNOWSTORM.... only 6" in NYC only 2" in Philly only 15" in BOS...

the Model is MUCH faster and the Low NEVER stalls so the snow ends by 10am sat even in BOS... the EURO from Midday Thurdsay had the snow lasting to 5pm SAT in BOS... thats a Huge difference
Link to comment
Share on other sites

just posted by DT on fb........................

 

 

 

*** ALERT *** 0z FRIDAY GFS .... the worlds most clueless and over replied Upon Model... says NO HISTORIC NEW ENGLAND SNOWSTORM.... only 6" in NYC only 2" in Philly only 15" in BOS...

the Model is MUCH faster and the Low NEVER stalls so the snow ends by 10am sat even in BOS... the EURO from Midday Thurdsay had the snow lasting to 5pm SAT in BOS... thats a Huge difference

 

 

i promise last quote from DT...............i'm a little excited about the storm

 

 

 

Wxrisk.com First let me state categorically that I think this run of the GFS is a sad JOKE. At this point in time it is no longer useful to look at weather models other then the short range 12 hour models such as the various WRF and HRRR stuff. The event is now underway and it certainly will begin over the northeast US region by Thursday afternoon .

That being said let's think about what the GFS / NAM is saying here and what it means. Think about this for second. Here we are about 12 hours for this event really begins to develop over the northeast and the NAM has gone extreme FOR historic snows... while the GFS has essentially reverse course and shows a ordinary RUN of the Mill Northeast U.S. snowstorm.

**** THIS IS JUST 12 HOURS BEFORE THE EVENT !!! Where is the consistency with American weather models ??? 

Either the GFS model is going to be correct.. which means that this is not going to be a historic snowstorm for eastern and Central New England... and that northeastern jersey into the lower Hudson Valley is NOT going to see 30 to 40 inches of snow and neither is Boston or southeastern Massachusetts or Providence... OR the last 11 runs of the European model... the last 11 runs of the European ensemble model... as well as the last few runs of the NAM / RPM EURO / SREF / RGEM will be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Either the GFS model is going to be correct.. which means that this is not going to be a historic snowstorm for eastern and Central New England... and that northeastern jersey into the lower Hudson Valley is NOT going to see 30 to 40 inches of snow and neither is Boston or southeastern Massachusetts or Providence... OR the last 11 runs of the European model... the last 11 runs of the European ensemble model... as well as the last few runs of the NAM / RPM EURO / SREF / RGEM will be.

Maybe it's the weenie in me, but that's a pretty good point. If the EURO holds serve I think we can discount this run of the GFS, until then it makes me nervous.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per JB this AM - no changes as he sees this as further west than modeled ....

 

This is passing 50-75 miles WEST, not over Hatteras. It looks like it may reach the coast near Devils Hill. So until such time it becomes obvious to me that the further east models are winning and given the GFS at 12z looking like this, with the low visibly offshore to the south of HSE

The actual weather is probably good to stare at. Keep your eye on the Data bouy east of Va beach. If it cuts inside of that, then the heaviest snow will be back even further west. But for now this storm is where the forecast map I put out yesterday would have it for that to verify, so I have no changes. If I see the fade later today, then I will

 

Again the ECMWF CONTROL remains further west, looks more like the blend of the last 2 nams and seems to be doing better this morning

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@nynjpaweather: What people are seeing is the separation of the two storms right now and the sinking air between these storms.

@nynjpaweather: I would love to see how this storm has shifted east. I look at the observations and compare to models, I don't see it.

@nynjpaweather: As the phase takes hold, the precipitation shield will back build and fill in. Been through this 100 times, same song and dance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice job my JB with probably being one of the first to draw the Lindsey storm analog

 

Now from this AM with JB commenting on the GFS

The GFS model was forecasting a common event, and in reality a rare one happens, its not right. He also harks back to Sandy with a lets remember also the Thursday morning NHC forecast for Tuesday at 7 am for Sandy with a subtropical cyclone 300 miles east of the mid atlantic coast WAS NOT the rare event that actually happened.

Turning his focus to our next winter event later this week

 

"Now, the situation this upcoming week is fascinating in that yes, there is ample reason to believe another major event is on the way though my feeling now is it will be more widepsread and lighter than what we just saw. Certainly at 500 mb its a bigger beast. Remember, and is why the GFS could not handle this, this was a small system in the grand scheme of things. Again the Lindsay storm maps were key to seeing how this could go in advance. But look at how this looks at 500 off the 06z run, vs the look of the trough next weekend ( it pales compared to the California trough now, too)"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...