tcutter Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 nice to see Rob is still around......I don't think he would post those numbers if he was still on TV he is still on tv but its in arizona Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deano Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hurricane is going with 2-4" for Philly, 3-5" north of the PATP. TWC is 1-3" north of the Delaware River, Flurries in SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 north of the Delaware River North of the Delaware River? I didn't know the river ran east-west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This is an entertaining thread. Looks like a fairly wide range of forecast snow amounts out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Latest at 530pm this evening from JB (paraphrased) He likes the 18z GFS as closest to his ideas. Talks about the ghost of the Lindsay storm hanging over this pattern, the threat of the 1-2 feet of snow into NYC is very much alive and kicking but doesn't want to lose site of the bigger picture here....the Lindsay storm says to him.. okay yah there is a bit of rain but the thumping goes wild and the result is about the same. As soon as this storm gets to 72.5 west if its raining in NYC its over to snow, and 3 hours of 3-5 inches will pile up quick. So the big pictue is this. 1-2 feet in much of southern New England into north Jersey outside 287 ( remember the -8c piling in) a crippling snowstorm for 5-15% of the US population, adn the fact that winter is far from over ...and the worst is yet to come for most of the US Didn't he say that earlier about the ECMWF? Sort of funny because doesn't he tend to rip on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Didn't he say that earlier about the ECMWF? Sort of funny because doesn't he tend to rip on the GFS? Just supporting the theory that whatever model looks snowiest is the one he likes. He can't use the RPM because its proprietary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 he is still on tv but its in arizona really......i thought he was still in the United States Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DT's first guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mike He mentioned in his post he is trying to show he doesn't care what a model shows just wants to point out the model closest to his ideas - he reiterated he is not a slave to any model.... Didn't he say that earlier about the ECMWF? Sort of funny because doesn't he tend to rip on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DT's first guess Interesting as he has nothing for Wilmington, DE yet I think I saw a map by Steve D. that has 3-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mike He mentioned in his post he is trying to show he doesn't care what a model shows just wants to point out the model closest to his ideas - he reiterated he is not a slave to any model.... Yeah, I am sure he does not care what a model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LOL!!! I think he resembles that remark!! Yeah, I am sure he does not care what a model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mike He mentioned in his post he is trying to show he doesn't care what a model shows just wants to point out the model closest to his ideas - he reiterated he is not a slave to any model.... Except the one that's snowiest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Pretty sure the completely wrong way to do it is to first make a conclusion and then find data that fits your already presumed conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Steve's had a couple of major snow busts so far however his sandy stuff was top notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not saying it's happening, but let's not turn this into a pissing match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Perhaps I should stay out of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 From JB this AM "With ECMWF, its ensembles and its control model all wetter than the US, the most likey correction to my forecast will be to INCREASE the amounts in Jersey, pa and around NYC. The other problems are the "north coast" as they call the Ohio shore line and around Chicago, but its NYC and the ghost of the Lindsay storm that may be the deciding factor. You might want to talk Miller type B, I say go to the maps of that storm and the debacle around NYC and you can see what the problem is here. I wonder if the current mayor is ready" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 JB is now worried that he may need to extend his 1 foot of snow line down to Philadelphia..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 From Steve at NJPA Weather "First, let me tell you why this high pressure system is going to stay in place. The North Atlantic Oscillation via the ESRL data (far more accurate in my opinion) shows the NAO has fallen from a positive to weakly negative state. This observation provides insight into the development of blocking just strong enough to keep cold high pressure in place over southern Quebec. We can see this nicely at 500 MB with convergence and confluence aloft. This can also be seen on the Water Vapor Satellite picture. Remember, when air converges at 500 MB, that air must sink to the surface which enhances high pressure. The fact high pressure is in place for this entire storm threat over Quebec, Canada means that the air flow must go from the high to the low pressure system that by the way is taking a near perfect track. This is the key ingredient that I've been watching for in terms of where the rain/snow line will set up as now we have a mechanism to deliver and keep cold air in place for many locations. Key point, look at those dew point. The dew points are in single digits to lower 10′s and that means you have cold, dry air in place. This observation I think is being missed by many out there and it's one that I think is going to be a big deal when this storm gets organized. This cold air is here. The high pressure is in place. The phasing is going to happen. So, tell me why locations like New York City, northern/central New Jersey, or Long Island go over to all rain for an extended period of time if at all? If your answer is because of the NAM or GFS, you are missing the point" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Latest map from Steve NJPA Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 TWC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 TWC: They have moved the 1-3" and 3-6" zones a bit further southwest vs. what I saw at 7:00 AM. Looks a bit better now, but IMO still should go another 30 miles SW in the Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6abc had PHL in the VERY LITTLE zone, ABE in the 1-3, poconos 3-6. Pretty conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 They have moved the 1-3" and 3-6" zones a bit further southwest vs. what I saw at 7:00 AM. Looks a bit better now, but IMO still should go another 30 miles SW in the Philly area. Moving everything southwest by 30 miles puts me precariously into the 6-12 zone. I suppose it's possible considering CTP issued a watch for Schuylkill this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6abc had PHL in the VERY LITTLE zone, ABE in the 1-3, poconos 3-6. Pretty conservative. Hmmm...KYW 1060 AccuWeather forecast on the radio this AM was 1 to 3 inches of snow in and around the city, 3-6 for northern Bucks and Montco. Would have thought 6 ABC in Philly would be similar or the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hmmm...KYW 1060 AccuWeather forecast on the radio this AM was 1 to 3 inches of snow in and around the city, 3-6 for northern Bucks and Montco. Would have thought 6 ABC in Philly would be similar or the same. Thought AW was mostly out of a job when it came to KYW1060. Heard its mostly CBS3 doing their forecasts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thought AW was mostly out of a job when it came to KYW1060. Heard its mostly CBS3 doing their forecasts now. Yes, key word being "mostly". Elliott Abrams is still used in the mornings to give AW forecasts on KYW1060. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes, key word being "mostly". Elliott Abrams is still used in the mornings to give AW forecasts on KYW1060. The :15 & :45 rip and read forecasts are Accuwx all day unless they go into 'Storm mode' then Accuwx is out all together. But yeah, on non-storm days the live reports are Accuwx until 10 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not sure if this was posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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