allman15 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You didn't see the non-event on the 18Z GFS, did you... what met would base a forecast on the 18z GFS.....????? a few days away for the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 what met would base a forecast on the 18z GFS.....????? a few days away for the event that's not the point. The point is everything from a few showers to the euro solution is on the table. The 18z gfs has started trends many of times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 what met would base a forecast on the 18z GFS.....????? a few days away for the event He asked if there was any model support for "a few showers". I gave him his answer. Not saying I would base a forecast on a single run of the GFS, and not saying I wouldn't at least mention the possibility of a more significant system, but that was not his question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 He asked if there was any model support for "a few showers". I gave him his answer. Not saying I would base a forecast on a single run of the GFS, and not saying I wouldn't at least mention the possibility of a more significant system, but that was not his question. thanks guys... my original post was really more about how bad/boring Justin D is and the mistake KYW has made by increasingly moving away from accuweather... his evening analysis was merely an example that I was citing. fwiw.. looked like Glenn was going with the EC (at this point) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 @BigJoeBastardi: ecwmf closest to my way of thinking on ground hog burying ne storm. ECMWF snow total off http://t.co/PLfR7MZV http://t.co/J9wznsBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 From JB earlier this AM (very little hype here.....) He says the colder run means that heavier accumulations will be further south and west and NYC to Boston is in line for the heaviest with alot of this area getting 1-2 feet of snow, even with rain mixing in on the coast. ECMWF/ JMA blend is closest to his current thinking. This means a crippling event for much of the area from N Jersey through southern and central New England. He sees hurricane force winds as possible in coastal areas. He sees an extensive storm from north of I 70 in the midwest - with the I80 corridor from Chicago to PA seeing more than 4 inches and a band of 8-12 inches Michigan into New York State. The SW side of accumulations of more than 3 inches could reach as far south as BWI to ACY He says keep in mind that great storms draw all air masses toward them, so while warming is rushing to the center, so is cooling... and the tightening of the baroclinic ribbon deepens the storm explosively and allows rain to turn back to snow quickly . So there could be places that see rain for a few hours that end up with as much or more than a place that was snowing the entire storm. There is the chance to have bands of 3-5 inches and hour, and those would be close to where the rain/snow line ends up He sees In the longer term, another too cold to be true run of the GFS ensembles and in the end, leading to a "sick 11-16 day look" that would rival any 5 day period in Feb in the last 50 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 what met would base a forecast on the 18z GFS.....????? a few days away for the event EATAPEACH would....that guy is a moron....DT said to say high over on his facebook page.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I almost wish we both still worked at AccuWx so I could see JB's head spinning while smoke comes out his ears. Famartin knows what I am talking about. He must be happier than a possum eating roadkill right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 From Steve at NJPA Weather all snow from PHL North and West with a mix to snow North and East with a significant snow for all areas. Here is his map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Thats ballsy^^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DT is hinting at a 4-6" snowfall for Philly proper. We'll know more when his first guess map comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 JB also mentioning that the places that change to rain for a while may end up being the area to watch for close to 3 Feet of Snow (where the snow falls at -3 and cools to -8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 thanks guys... my original post was really more about how bad/boring Justin D is and the mistake KYW has made by increasingly moving away from accuweather... his evening analysis was merely an example that I was citing. fwiw.. looked like Glenn was going with the EC (at this point) i don't like to slam mets, but KYW did take a big step down when they went to Accuwx only up 10 a.m. and their five day at 15 and 45 after the hour. And I noticed during one of the snow 'events' recently they even went CBS-3 during the morning. I mean come on - Elliot Abrams vs. CBS-3? And when the Accuwx 5 day comes on at 15 and 45 after the hours, 90% of the KYW broadcasters can't even read the forecast correctly either to squeeze it in to a 15 second spot or just plain carelessness. And Carol Erickson is probably a nice lady, but I'm so sick of hearing about bringing your pets inside whenever it drops below 40 or above 70... I'm sure it's all about $$$. We all know Accuwx doesn't come cheap. BTW, I think Justin is one of the better CBS-3 mets they put on - he does seem to step outside the rip and read forecast format occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Murph!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 so what was his call? and did anyone catch NBC10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 @BigJoeBastardi: New ECMWF starts 12 inch plus ne of NYC 2 foot max near Bos. Logan below normal about to get smashed @BigJoeBastardi: Not going to get into backyard brawls on accumulation here when 2 days ago I was getting hammered for saying this was coming in 1st place Still think this will be biggest snow this winter in the Philly burbs when all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 @BigJoeBastardi: New ECMWF starts 12 inch plus ne of NYC 2 foot max near Bos. Logan below normal about to get smashed @BigJoeBastardi: Not going to get into backyard brawls on accumulation here when 2 days ago I was getting hammered for saying this was coming in 1st place Still think this will be biggest snow this winter in the Philly burbs when all is said and done assume the last thought is yours?...did he comment on philly area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 WINTER STORM NEMO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 @BigJoeBastardi: New ECMWF starts 12 inch plus ne of NYC 2 foot max near Bos. Logan below normal about to get smashed @BigJoeBastardi: Not going to get into backyard brawls on accumulation here when 2 days ago I was getting hammered for saying this was coming in 1st place Still think this will be biggest snow this winter in the Philly burbs when all is said and done so 3"?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 WINTER STORM NEMO!! Just keep digging just keep digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 yes - my thoughts assume the last thought is yours?...did he comment on philly area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 biggest so far was 4.5" back in November - so not too big a hill to climb so 3"?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 biggest so far was 4.5" back in November - so not too big a hill to climb Not for Philly! lol (immediate Metro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 @BigJoeBastardi: ecwmf closest to my way of thinking on ground hog burying ne storm. ECMWF snow total off http://t.co/PLfR7MZV http://t.co/J9wznsBY Of course it is, it has the most snow. Guess he didn't see the RPM though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 rob g's numbers http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=4331&topicid=19213&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allman15 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 rob g's numbers http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=4331&topicid=19213&Itemid=179 nice to see Rob is still around......I don't think he would post those numbers if he was still on TV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 No love for Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 David Tolleris going with nada for Philly. Zilch, zero, nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 David Tolleris going with nada for Philly. Zilch, zero, nothing. I'm not going to say I would do that, but its not out of the realm for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Latest at 530pm this evening from JB (paraphrased) He likes the 18z GFS as closest to his ideas. Talks about the ghost of the Lindsay storm hanging over this pattern, the threat of the 1-2 feet of snow into NYC is very much alive and kicking but doesn't want to lose site of the bigger picture here....the Lindsay storm says to him.. okay yah there is a bit of rain but the thumping goes wild and the result is about the same. As soon as this storm gets to 72.5 west if its raining in NYC its over to snow, and 3 hours of 3-5 inches will pile up quick. So the big pictue is this. 1-2 feet in much of southern New England into north Jersey outside 287 ( remember the -8c piling in) a crippling snowstorm for 5-15% of the US population, adn the fact that winter is far from over ...and the worst is yet to come for most of the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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