bluewave Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The GFS and Euro ensembles both agree on building a strong ridge north of Alaska and Canada next week. Euro ensemble mean GFS ensemble mean Strong blocking there during the last 12 days of December in the past has been a signal for a colder January temperature pattern in NYC during 5 out of the 8 years. Late December.....year.... 2009 2003 1996 1993 1984 1981 1963 1960 8 year composite for December 20-31 analogs with peak dates: At this early date, it is very difficult to know the magnitude of January cold air that we will see around the NYC metro area. Several years were very cold and others were closer to normal. Only 1 January out of the 8 was mild here. So it looks like we will see a step down from the very mild temperature departures of this December if the analogs hold. January....NYC temperature departure 2010.....+0.5 2004.....-7.3 1997....+0.7 1994....-5.9 1985....-3.0 1982....-6.1 1964....+2.5 1961....-5.0 January 500 mb composite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 going to be difficult for the storm later next week to cut with that block - has to be forced east and redevelop off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The GFS and Euro ensembles both agree on building a strong ridge north of Alaska and Canada next week. Euro ensemble mean GFS ensemble mean Strong blocking there during the last 12 days of December in the past has been a signal for a colder January temperature pattern in NYC during 5 out of the 8 years. Late December.....year.... 2009 2003 1996 1993 1984 1981 1963 1960 8 year composite for December 20-31 analogs with peak dates: At this early date, it is very difficult to know the magnitude of January cold air that we will see around the NYC metro area. Several years were very cold and others were closer to normal. Only 1 January out of the 8 was mild here. So it looks like we will see a step down from the very mild temperature departures of this December if the analogs hold. January....NYC temperature departure 2010.....+0.5 2004.....-7.3 1997....+0.7 1994....-5.9 1985....-3.0 1982....-6.1 1964....+2.5 1961....-5.0 January 500 mb composite: I'll take January 1964...December 1984 is as warm as this year...January 2013 could be fridgid...February is a toss up...February 85 started out snowy but by the third week the temperature hit 75...Highest February Temperature on record...Are we in for a similar winter?...1984-85 was short and sweet...But no icying on the cake because there was no major storms...Nice to see 2004, 1994, 1982, 1964 and 1961 on the list...Will it get as cold as these years? Probably not but who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The GFS and Euro ensembles both agree on building a strong ridge north of Alaska and Canada next week. Euro ensemble mean GFS ensemble mean Strong blocking there during the last 12 days of December in the past has been a signal for a colder January temperature pattern in NYC during 5 out of the 8 years. Late December.....year.... 2009 2003 1996 1993 1984 1981 1963 1960 8 year composite for December 20-31 analogs with peak dates: At this early date, it is very difficult to know the magnitude of January cold air that we will see around the NYC metro area. Several years were very cold and others were closer to normal. Only 1 January out of the 8 was mild here. So it looks like we will see a step down from the very mild temperature departures of this December if the analogs hold. January....NYC temperature departure 2010.....+0.5 2004.....-7.3 1997....+0.7 1994....-5.9 1985....-3.0 1982....-6.1 1964....+2.5 1961....-5.0 January 500 mb composite: 1994 had a neg PNA and neg NAO - Winter stared in Jan that yr , Great Baroclinic zone fight set up and worked out well for the North Shore of Long Island that year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 these are the years with a mild December and cold January... season.....Dec....Jan....Feb... 1891-92...42.3...31.5...33.4... 1911-12...39.4...23.7...28.8... 1923-24...42.0...32.7...28.9... 1940-41...38.4...29.4...31.1... 1953-54...41.3...30.8...40.1... 1956-57...40.9...28.5...37.3... 1957-58...40.2...31.9...27.4... 1965-66...40.5...32.2...35.1... 1984-85...43.8...28.8...36.6... 1996-97...41.3...32.2...40.0... 1998-99...43.2...33.9...38.9... 1999-00...40.0...31.3...37.3... 2008-09...38.1...27.9...36.7... The way December is going if we do get a cold January chances are February will be milder again...January 1985 was 15 degrees colder on average than December 1984...The most since 1911-12...earlier years had cold February's as well...Since 1958 the trend has been one cold month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'll take January 1964...December 1984 is as warm as this year...January 2013 could be fridgid...February is a toss up...February 85 started out snowy but by the third week the temperature hit 75...Highest February Temperature on record...Are we in for a similar winter?...1984-85 was short and sweet...But no icying on the cake because there was no major storms...Nice to see 2004, 1994, 1982, 1964 and 1961 on the list...Will it get as cold as these years? Probably not but who knows... Yeah, those Januarys were during a colder era than we have been in since 2006. But it will be interesting to see if the signal holds even in a modified manner. We'll have to watch to see how much cross polar flow gets going into Canada during January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 these are the years with a mild December and cold January... season.....Dec....Jan....Feb... 1891-92...42.3...31.5...33.4... 1911-12...39.4...23.7...28.8... 1923-24...42.0...32.7...28.9... 1940-41...38.4...29.4...31.1... 1953-54...41.3...30.8...40.1... 1956-57...40.9...28.5...37.3... 1957-58...40.2...31.9...27.4... 1965-66...40.5...32.2...35.1... 1984-85...43.8...28.8...36.6... 1996-97...41.3...32.2...40.0... 1998-99...43.2...33.9...38.9... 1999-00...40.0...31.3...37.3... 2008-09...38.1...27.9...36.7... The way December is going if we do get a cold January chances are February will be milder again...January 1985 was 15 degrees colder on average than December 1984...The most since 1911-12...earlier years had cold February's as well...Since 1958 the trend has been one cold month... It's interesting to see 1996 and 1984 come up on that list. For some reason January has seen the slowest rising temperatures relative to the means in NYC of the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 1994 had a neg PNA and neg NAO - Winter stared in Jan that yr , Great Baroclinic zone fight set up and worked out well for the North Shore of Long Island that year . January 1994 was an amazing month around here for cold, ice, and snow combined. Since we have been in a milder winter pattern since around 2006, it would be a decent achievement for us to just have a January low in the single digits here. Some recent cold January days in NYC: date....high..low...departure 1-24-11.....24...6....-17 1-16-09.....16...9....-19 1-17-09.....22...6....-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 January 1994 was an amazing month around here for cold, ice, and snow combined. Since we have been in a milder winter pattern since around 2006, it would be a decent achievement for us to just have a January low in the single digits here. Some recent cold January days in NYC: date....high..low...departure 1-24-11.....24...6....-17 1-17-09.....22...6....-18 I remember going to work one morning and it three degrees with snow flurries...Everyone including myself took a flop on the ice that year...February's double storms made that winter great...20" of snow on the ground after the second storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 I remember going to work one morning and it three degrees with snow flurries...Everyone including myself took a flop on the ice that year...February's double storms made that winter great...20" of snow on the ground after the second storm... Traveling home from work during the January 94 ice storm was the most challenging driving conditions that I have ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Traveling home from work during the January 94 ice storm was the most challenging driving conditions that I have ever experienced. I remember Jan '94 fondly. In the Shenandoah Valley of VA, one morning we got down to between -15 and -20F. I remember driving to Baltimore that day and the temperature barely cracked 0F on the drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The GFS and Euro ensembles both agree on building a strong ridge north of Alaska and Canada next week. Euro ensemble mean GFS ensemble mean Strong blocking there during the last 12 days of December in the past has been a signal for a colder January temperature pattern in NYC during 5 out of the 8 years. Late December.....year.... 2009 2003 1996 1993 1984 1981 1963 1960 8 year composite for December 20-31 analogs with peak dates: At this early date, it is very difficult to know the magnitude of January cold air that we will see around the NYC metro area. Several years were very cold and others were closer to normal. Only 1 January out of the 8 was mild here. So it looks like we will see a step down from the very mild temperature departures of this December if the analogs hold. January....NYC temperature departure 2010.....+0.5 2004.....-7.3 1997....+0.7 1994....-5.9 1985....-3.0 1982....-6.1 1964....+2.5 1961....-5.0 January 500 mb composite: 61,82,85 and 94 monster all time cold . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah, those Januarys were during a colder era than we have been in since 2006. But it will be interesting to see if the signal holds even in a modified manner. We'll have to watch to see how much cross polar flow gets going into Canada during January. I don't buy this "colder era" stuff at all. The late 1960's-early 1980's were colder since we were at the tail end of a 30 year "cold phase" and very beginning of the "warm phase." We have about 5 or 6 years of "cold phase" under our belt now, or similar to the way we were in the early 50's. There's still time to evolve back to colder winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Fwiw, the CFSv2 is showing a cold January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 in December 1984 and 1990 during two of the warmest Decembers on record NYC got a snow event between torches...Will 2012 have a post Christmas storm?... 1984 amd 1990 dailies from 12/22-12/31... 1984.................................................................1990.............................................................. date......max....min...snowfall... 12/22.....60.....43.....0....................61.....58.....0 12/23.....45.....35.....0....................66.....57.....0 12/24.....50.....36.....0....................63.....29.....0 12/25.....47.....29.....0....................31.....22.....0 12/26.....42.....27.....0....................36.....25.....0 12/27.....35.....28....4.8".................28.....21.....0.6" 12/28.....56.....30.....0....................36.....24.....6.6" 12/29.....70.....55.....0....................43.....35.....0 12/30.....65.....40.....0....................60.....40.....0 12/31.....44.....36.....0....................60.....27.....0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 61,82,85 and 94 monster all time cold . In Jauuary of 1964 we had the blizzard despite being on the mild side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 in December 1984 and 1990 during two of the warmest Decembers on record NYC got a snow event between torches...Will 2012 have a post Christmas storm?... 1984 amd 1990 dailies from 12/22-12/31... 1984.................................................................1990.............................................................. date......max....min...snowfall... 12/22.....60.....43.....0....................61.....58.....0 12/23.....45.....35.....0....................66.....57.....0 12/24.....50.....36.....0....................63.....29.....0 12/25.....47.....29.....0....................31.....22.....0 12/26.....42.....27.....0....................36.....25.....0 12/27.....35.....28....4.8".................28.....21.....0.6" 12/28.....50.....36.....0....................36.....24.....6.6" 12/29.....70.....55.....0....................43.....35.....0 12/30.....65.....40.....0....................60.....40.....0 12/31.....44.....36.....0....................60.....27.....0 Both events were also nearly identical and similar to what the models show for Christmas now on a reduced scale, 2 weak waves in SW flow that slammed into a 1040mb high. The problem is this time we're lacking the big high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Both events were also nearly identical and similar to what the models show for Christmas now on a reduced scale, 2 weak waves in SW flow that slammed into a 1040mb high. The problem is this time we're lacking the big high to the north. 1990 had a weak positive enso year while 1984 was a weak la nina...Both the AO and NAO were positive in 1990 and 1984 had a weak +AO and zero NAO...PNA were both negative...The pna was negative for the 1984 event and slightly positive for the 1990 event...The nao was near zero and falling while the AO was tanking...1990 had a very positive AO and NAO...Different indices with the same results...This year is actually warmer than those two...I'll believe snow when I see it...It's the 20th and we still have only one day with a temperature below freezing...We need some cold air first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 In Jauuary of 1964 we had the blizzard despite being on the mild side. 13" long duration storm with some heavy snow at times...very cold storm with temperatures in the teens and low 20's most of the event...Heavy drifting due to strong winds...1963-64 remains one of my favorite winters...They had a real White Christmas...A January Blizzard...Frequent snows in February...A 5" wet snowfall the first day of Spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 2012 might make it into the top ten warmest Decembers... Here is the top ten and what happened after... as of December 22nd NYC is averging 44.4 for the month...November averaged 43.9...The warmest December is 44.1... warmest..DEC.....JAN.....FEB......snowfall...enso............. 44.1 in 2001 ......39.9......40.6...........3.5".....neutral 43.8 in 1984 ......28.8......36.6.........24.1".....weak la nina 43.6 in 2006 ......37.5......28.2.........12.4".....el nino 43.3 in 2011 ......37.3......40.9...........7.4".....weak la nina 43.2 in 1998 ......33.9......38.9.........12.7".....la nina 42.8 in 1982 ......34.5......36.4.........27.2".....el nino 42.6 in 1990 ......34.9......40.0.........24.9".....neutral 42.3 in 1891 ......31.5......33.5.........25.4".....neutral 42.2 in 1994 ......37.5......31.6.........11.8".....el nino 42.0 in 1923 ......32.7......28.9.........27.5".....el nino three neutral winters...two with near average snowfall... three la nina winters...one with near average snowfall... four el nino winters...two with near average snowfall... five of the ten years had a cold month either January or February... three had a warm February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Last nights Euro had a classic split flow developing out west with the PNA ridge moving all the way up into British Columbia and some serious cold surging into the Eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 if it ends up a top ten warmest December will it get very cold in January or February?...It will be 19 years since NYC last saw temperatures below zero...Only one of the top ten December years have a temperature below zero later on in the winter...1984-85...Here's how it breaks down for the coldest winter temperature after a top ten warmest December...max/min...winter min... 2012-13..........62/29..........??... 2001-02..........71/20..........19...Feb/Mar 1984-85..........70/25...........-2...Jan 2006-07..........70/18............8...Feb 2011-12..........62/22..........13...Jan 1998-99..........75/17............9...Jan 1982-83..........72/17..........12...Jan 1990-91..........62/21..........10...Jan 1891-92..........66/14............9...Jan 1994-95..........65/19............6...Feb 1923-24..........64/23............5...Jan Since 1984-85 had such a mild December and cold January anything is possible...But the lack of any cold at all is troubling...six of those year had at least one single digit day...2001-02, 2006-07 and 1994-95 had their coldest reading in February...seven in January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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