hawkeye_wx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Just being a little warmer across southeast Iowa has caused the snow total in east-central Iowa to be nearly cut in half on the 18z GFS. This run keeps the 850 zero line near Cedar Rapids for several hours while heavy precip is falling. This is what I'm afraid could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY... ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS BLIZZARD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND END. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO ABOUT NOON THURSDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 16 INCHES. THUNDERSNOW WITH RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL BECOMING DIFFICULT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY...WHITEOUTS... AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 rippage, looks like it closes off not only sooner but a bit further south. 18z GFS brings the pain. Now there's a max 925 mb wind of 66 kts southeast of cyclone77 at 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Gonna be a sweet map on nws homepage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 All of the MKX cwa now under some sort of "watch". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Blizzard warnings in how many states? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Booked at a hotel in Gaylord.... Expecting 10-20 inches. Big margins don't fail so bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Late trends today seems to be a bit slower and maybe a smidgen south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 For those in the Toronto area, some positive developments from today's runs, especially from the GFS and GGEM. The 12z and 18z runs develop the secondary in NY state Friday morning and is slow to move out. Thus more wraparound QPF (>0.25") Friday into Friday night. There is still hope for Toronto's first real measurable snowfall. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Blizzard warnings in how many states? One so far. WI. Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 347 PM CST TUE DEC 18 2012 ...SNOW BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS STORM HAS BEEN PROJECTED BY MANY OF OUR LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A PARALYZING SNOW STORM IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THAT HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL SET UP BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA WILL BE CENTERED WITHIN A COUNTY OR SO OF A LINE FROM DARLINGTON TO MADISON...BEAVER DAM...AND FOND DU LAC. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND HOW WET THE SNOW IS. A WET SNOW WOULD REDUCE THE THREAT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WHILE A DRIER AND FLUFFY SNOW WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Just being a little warmer across southeast Iowa has caused the snow total in east-central Iowa to be nearly cut in half on the 18z GFS. This run keeps the 850 zero line near Cedar Rapids for several hours while heavy precip is falling. This is what I'm afraid could happen. Oh dear I hope not. But then again, it's the 18z so what do you expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 For those in the Toronto area, some positive developments from today's runs, especially from the GFS and GGEM. The 12z and 18z runs develop the secondary in NY state Friday morning and is slow to move out. Thus more wraparound QPF (>0.25") Friday into Friday night. There is still hope for Toronto's first real measurable snowfall. Stay tuned. Yeah, the 18z GFS certainly looks pretty. Looks like a combination of a faster occlusion and the H5 low tracking a bit further south. Hard not to stay skeptical though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yeah, the 18z GFS certainly looks pretty. Looks like a combination of a faster occlusion and the H5 low tracking a bit further south. Hard not to stay skeptical though. Even the Euro shows a few inches over by YYZ... temps are kind of sketchy at first but it would definitely support a least an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 One so far. WI. WI only has Blizzard Watches. The only Blizzard Warnings in the country are in CO, KS, NE, and AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Out in Muskegon for a couple days. Not sure if I should extend my trip... any thoughts on impacts around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Most intense quick hitter in the history of Chicago? THURSDAY NIGHT VERY WINDY. CLOUDY. SNOW IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS 16 TO 20. NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 MPH LATE. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 18z 4km NAM has a max of 64-68kts at 900mb at 00z Friday in East-Central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 So is the general consensus on here that Milwaukee city proper will get walloped by this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yeah, the 18z GFS certainly looks pretty. Looks like a combination of a faster occlusion and the H5 low tracking a bit further south. Hard not to stay skeptical though. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in future model runs, especially with better sampling of the western US wave coming onshore with tonight's 00z model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 WI only has Blizzard Watches. The only Blizzard Warnings in the country are in CO, KS, NE, and AK. I think "watch" is what Saints was getting at. Didn't notice the ones in KS and NE yet. --- There's a pretty big timing difference between the OP GFS & OP NAM isnt' there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 La Crosse going with quite a SE track....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 A Thursday morning drive from here to Milwaukee would be an interesting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 So is the general consensus on here that Milwaukee city proper will get walloped by this system? The city of Milwaukee will see more rain than snow. The further west and north the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 LOT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 With the temps forecast for Wed/Thurs, it is looking more like a rain, or mostly rain event. Still going with 1" IMBY. Wind, however, looks to be interesting, and probably will be the worst part of the event for my area. Congrats to all who cash in on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 MKX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 MKX: 'sup with that weirdness in Taylor county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 MKX: I'll take 4" and run with it! I think the heavy axis will be from Madison to more Sheboygan, especially if the GFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 'sup with that weirdness in Taylor county? Different NWS offices and thus differing opinions on track and snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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