Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 MKX goes with Blizzard Watch...mentions max totals of 10-16", 2-3 inch per hour rates and thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Killer AFD out for MKX, I'll post in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 New sector view being worked on for our COD website for the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 MKX goes with Blizzard Watch...mentions max totals of 10-16", 2-3 inch per hour rates and thundersnow. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 LSE had this just come out:? HAVE VIEWED STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES TO ASSESS HOW UNUSUAL THIS STORM IS COMPARED TO HISTORICAL STORMS. A NUMBER OF PARAMETERS NOT SURPRISINGLY ARE IN THE 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION /SD/ FROM THE MEAN INCLUDING SURFACE PRESSURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THE WINDS AT 850 MB /FROM 15Z THURSDAY ON/. THE 18.12Z NAM SOLUTION HAD A -3.5 SD FOR THE 850MB LOW CENTER OVER CHICAGO/LOWER MI BY NOON THURSDAY. MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE CHANGE IN THIS ANOMALY AS THE STORM MOVES BY AND STRENGTHENS...WITH -2.5 SD IN NERN MO DEEPENING TO -3.5 SD BY MICHIGAN IN 12 HOURS THURSDAY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS IS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG STORM AND WE MUST BE CAREFUL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. LOW-LEVEL WIND DEVIATIONS ARE ALSO IN THE +2 TO 3 SD RANGE MAKING A BLIZZARD CONDITION PART OF THE DISCUSSION. THE 18.12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE ALL TAKEN A SLIGHT STEP SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO HAVE PORTRAYED A LARGER BROADER BAND OF DEFORMATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS STORM ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NCEP SREF POPULATIONS HAVE DRASTICALLY SHIFTED THE SNOW BAND SOUTHEASTWARD SINCE THE MONDAY 17.15Z RUN WITH A NICE STEP EACH MODEL RUN TOWARD THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS. THIS HAS LED TO MORE CONFIDENCE AS WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED AND COLLABORATED A WINTER STORM WARNING UPGRADE /FROM WATCH/ IN THE HIGH PROBABILITY...MOST IMPACTED COUNTIES IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST LA CROSSE FORECAST AREAS. REALLY...THIS STORM HAS MANY INGREDIENTS FOR A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM...IT IS NOT IF...BUT WHERE. THE JET DYNAMICS ARE INTERESTING FOR THIS STORM WITH MUCH OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT COMING FROM THE CURVATURE FROM THE DOWNSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND THE STORM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ITSELF. THIS CURVATURE DIFFERENCE ONLY INCREASES INTO THURSDAY WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE/TROUGH SYSTEM AND NEGATIVE TILT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ENHANCES THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE DEEPENING AND IT NEARLY BOMBS ON ITS WAY PAST US. THIS ELICITS A STRONG WIND FIELD ON THE WEST FLANK OF THE LOW CENTER...WITH THE MAXIMUM PRESSURE GRADIENT TRANSVERSING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THE MAX AREA BRUSHES GRANT COUNTY BEFORE AFFECTING ALL OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA AND SOUTHERN WI. BUT...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS STRONG WITH 25-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECT THURSDAY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WI. THIS AREA IS VERY CLOSE TO NEEDING A BLIZZARD WARNING. CONFIDNECE IS A BIT LOWER THAT BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATE WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH IN THE SNOW TO EFFECTIVELY MIX THE HIGHER GUSTS TO THE SURFACE TO CAUSE BLIZZARD. BUT THIS MAY HAPPEN AFTER THE SNOW STOPS. WHILE SNOW TOTALS ARE LESS TO THE NORTHWEST /CHARLES CITY- AUSTIN/...THERE IS CONCERN FOR THE OPEN COUNTRY AND WINDS OF 25-40 MPH. 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND THOSE WIND SPEEDS COULD CAUSE A DANGEROUS IMPACT WHERE A WARNING IS MORE APPROPRIATE. THUS...HAVE ADDED A TIER TO THE NORTHWEST ONTO THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO RAISE AWARENESS OF WIND AND SNOW THREATS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ALSO UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST-EAST WHERE CONFIDENCE IN A DANGEROUS STORM IS HIGHEST. RIGHT NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGE IN THE STORM FOR AN UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING...WE ARE CLOSE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN HEAVY SNOW AND DRIFTING...SOME DRIFTS 2-4 FEET IN SOUTHWEST WI...IMPASSABLE ROADS AND DRIVEWAYS...AND CLOSED SCHOOLS/BUSINESSES BY THURSDAY. ON RIDGE TOP COUNTRY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...DRIFTS COULD BE HIGHER...AND LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'm weenie-ing out reading these AFDs. Confidence on a pretty/very major storm is fairly high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Skilling with his daily 3 p.m. slot on Garry Meier mentions "half a foot" for areas north and west of the city "out towards McHenry and Walworth counties and Rockford." Said couple inches in city but that things could still change. Didn't sound too weenieish there. I think he has always had the enthusiasm but just has more outlets now (as has been mentioned) where we can hear/see him a bit more unplugged. Also just advised a caller to postpone their Thursday travel from Green Bay and Kenosha to the Dells (that advice looking rather obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 CIPS analog thumbnails. NAM at 48 hours: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails2.php?reg=MV&fhr=F048&model=NAM212 GFS at 60 hours: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails2.php?reg=MV&fhr=F060&model=GFS212 Hoosier's storm (Dec 1987) is #4 on the GFS portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 FWIW several of the 12z GFS ensembles are more bullish than the op with the defo band over northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 From NWS Des Moines...is this really true? I WAS LOOKING AT WHETHER OR NOT TO KICK TO WATCH UP A NOTCH TO A BLIZZARD WATCH GIVEN THE STRONG NORTH WINDS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE QUITE LIKELY WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF GUSTS 40+ MPH. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER WE HAVE NO SNOW ON THE GROUND AND I RECALL THAT TO GET REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF TIME THERE SHOULD BE SOME EXISTING SNOW COVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Skilling with his daily 3 p.m. slot on Garry Meier mentions "half a foot" for areas north and west of the city "out towards McHenry and Walworth counties and Rockford." Said couple inches in city but that things could still change. Didn't sound too weeniesh there. I think he has always had the enthusiasm but just has more outlets now (as has been mentioned) where we can hear/see him a bit more unplugged. Also just advised a caller to postpone their Thursday travel from Green Bay and Kenosha to the Dells (that advice looking rather obvious Should be on the radio again around 6pm I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 18z NAM clownage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 APX just says 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Quad Cities suggesting 9-12 inches for CR to Dubuque. I'm skeptical of the 12 inches, but 8-10 seems reasonable given the current track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 DVN also mentioning possible ugrade to blizzard warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 18z NAM clownage. I'm really starting to think that corridor from Dubuque, IA to Madison, WI is going to get absolutely smoked by a raging blizzard! Currently looking at hotel rooms in those cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Def a little bit of a north shift on the 18z NAM when compared to the 12z run when looking at the placement of the southern vort located in the plains centered on 6z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'm really starting to think that corridor from Dubuque, IA to Madison, WI is going to get absolutely smoked by a raging blizzard! Currently looking at hotel rooms in those cities. That's the sweet spots...at the moment.. 10:1 NAM clown map even better: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL_84HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That's the sweet spots...at the moment.. 10:1 NAM clown map even better: http://wxcaster4.com...OWFALL_84HR.gif Just don't know what were gonna do with a whole < 1". Wow, call out the salt trucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That's the sweet spots...at the moment.. 10:1 NAM clown map even better: http://wxcaster4.com...OWFALL_84HR.gif Wow! And knowing that that time between 12am-12pm is going to be the heart of the storm, I have to imagine that has to be the best case senario for snow ratios! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wow at gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 LOT now mentioning myself as well. IN ADDITION...FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE VERY STRONG IN THE TROWAL FEATURE GIVEN A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Solid AFD from LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 18z GFS is slower too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 LOT now mentioning myself as well. IN ADDITION...FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE VERY STRONG IN THE TROWAL FEATURE GIVEN A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW If we do get it, maybe this'll be your storm. I still remember your anger from 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 rippage, looks like it closes off not only sooner but a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Quite intense up this way to Milwaukee on the GFS at 54-57 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Just don't know what were gonna do with a whole < 1". Wow, call out the salt trucks! Wasn't that long ago they were running out of salt here. Don't have that problem with last winter and now this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 18z GFS looks pretty decent for SE Wi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 18z GFS looks pretty decent for SE Wi Yeah, I'd bet, plus we got bonus snows today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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