A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 dry slot gets into the area but short lived as heights fall as defo band would swing through. I think the initial surge will be 100% liquid outside the far northwest cwa and possibly Mt. Geos. The prospects of a rapidly strengthening low with a defo band nearby are keeping me interested in a possible 1-2 hour period of +SN...again favoring the far NW suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Looking better here. and its snowing pretty good right now I am at work in St. Charles and it was ripping for about 5 min. But the band drifted to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS Ensembles look tasty from Milwaukee and a bit north and west. Really hangs on at the end with the deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS Ensembles look tasty from Milwaukee and a bit north and west. Really hangs on at the end with the deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS Ensembles look tasty from Milwaukee and a bit north and west. Really hangs on at the end with the deformation band. 12z Nam also punds Milwaukee area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Just an FYI ahead of time, I won't have the 12z ECMWF text list up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Good luck to you guys to the east of la crosse. Looks like you are in for a real pounding. I am so pumped for this, been too long since we've had a real winter storm. GFS currently shows over 0.9" liquid which could be anywhere from 8" to over a foot depending on ratio. I'm thinking that the 2-3" of snowcover were getting today will help keep this event all snow, the whole region being covered with snow makes a big difference. The albedo of the ground is around 20%, while the albedo of fresh snow is 80-90%. Incoming shortwave radiation ain't gonna be able to ruin this party now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I am so pumped for this, been too long since we've had a real winter storm. GFS currently shows over 0.9" liquid which could be anywhere from 8" to over a foot depending on ratio. I'm thinking that the 2-3" of snowcover were getting today will really help keep this event all snow, the whole region being covered with snow makes a big difference. The albedo of the ground is around 20%, while the albedo of fresh snow is 80-90%. Incoming shortwave radiation ain't gonna be able to ruin this party now. Good luck to you guys to the east of la crosse. Looks like you are in for a real pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ...Madison has been pretty much in the money for days now... Should be good for near a foot me thinks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Ukie total QPF through 12z Friday. Pretty juicy. Rounding up conversion below... 25-30mm=1.00-1.20" 30-40mm=1.20-1.60" 40-50mm=1.60-2.00" 50-75mm=2.00-3.00" That's generous of the UKMET! Really coming down outside now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Gino Izzi from LOT will be interviewed live on TWC around 12:10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Since Skilling and MPX have given it a shout out...12z FIM is south of Chicago through northern IN (south of SBN). It then moves east from there to CLE (pressure between 984 and 988) before redeveloping. Might be an even weenier solution for LAF with respect to backside snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Since Skilling and MPX have given it a shout out...12z FIM is south of Chicago through northern IN (south of SBN). It then moves east from there to CLE (pressure between 984 and 988) before redeveloping. Might be an even weenier solution for LAF with respect to backside snows. Talk about a good track except for the eastward motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Talk about a good track except for the eastward motion. that's the best part for the further south crew...a slowdown and turn east right after rapid deepening is key to maximizing time under the best defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I wanna set the goal here for a solid inch of snow on the backside. Some models would indicate closer to 2-3", but other models closer to a dusting (dryslot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 that's the best part for the further south crew...a slowdown and turn east right after rapid deepening is key to maximizing time under the best defo band. Yeah, it's my only chance down here. Not counting on it of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 What will Dr. No have to say today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 What will Dr. No have to say today will probably hold somewhere between its past couple runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 will probably hold somewhere between its past couple runs Pretty good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 will probably hold somewhere between its past couple runs Ya should be latched on now I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yeah, it's my only chance down here. Not counting on it of course. All things considered (except the 12z Euro) I still think 1-2" is a good call for us. Breezy conditions throughout the day but ramping up big time toward evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro pretty much the same track as 00z, not quite as deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro pretty much the same track as 00z, not quite as deep We'll see. It's a bit slower which may be why it doesn't look as deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Serious backside palm crusher for Saukville with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro has the surface low near Benton Harbor at 00z Fri. It was in central MI at that time on the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 We'll see. It's a bit slower which may be why it doesn't look as deep. 992mb in Ontario...vs 988 in the Huron on the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 These scattered showers in Los Angeles are the beginning of our storm. Low centered just east of the Sierra-Nevada mountains on the CA/NV border, expected to progress towards Colorada over the course of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 All things considered (except the 12z Euro) I still think 1-2" is a good call for us. Breezy conditions throughout the day but ramping up big time toward evening. I think we'll be very lucky to see an inch. Gonna ride the Euro here with its quicker and more NE ejection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro QPF: 1-1.25" in N. IL with a area of 1.25 - 1.5" in the NE corner, 1-1.5" in E. WI with 1.75" near the shore, 1.25-1.5" in NW MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I think we'll be very lucky to see an inch. Gonna ride the Euro here with its quicker and more NE ejection. Even after the 12z run slowed down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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