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December 20th-22nd Major Winter Storm Part II


andyhb

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ILN upped my snow total from 1-2 to 2-4inches. :snowing:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

401 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-201715-

/O.EXT.KILN.WW.Y.0007.121221T0000Z-121222T0300Z/

WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-

LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-

LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...

KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...

BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...

SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA

401 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING

TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...STRONG WINDS AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED

VISIBILITIES...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND STRONG WINDS...

AS WELL AS A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURE BELOW FREEZING WITH WET

ROADS ON THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND TREE

DAMAGE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING QUICKLY FROM THE 40S INTO THE 20S

THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH STRONG

WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS

OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION

WHILE DRIVING.

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DVN just hoisted blizzard warnings for the metro and increased accumulations into the 4-8" range. Maybe I won't look like such a dummy after all holding to that range in my call the whole time. Should start to see more explosion on the radar in the next few hours as the upr air low begins closing off and things really start getting interesting. Cannot wait to see this unfold.

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More snow than expected?

Nah still the same pretty much, 2-6".

The warning is more for the Wind aspect..

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKEGAN...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...

OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...GARY...VALPARAISO

346 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO

3 AM CST FRIDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATION: SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH REGARD TO SNOW AMOUNTS BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TOTALS OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FAVORED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF CHICAGO...AND ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY INDIANA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF HEAVY SNOW BANDS WITH THUNDERSNOW OCCUR.

* WIND: WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH EXPECTED. WINDS NEAR THE LAKE AND PORTER COUNTY SHORELINE COULD EXCEED 60 MPH AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF THE INTENSE SNOWFALL AND VERY

STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND

POSSIBLY NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL

CAUSE ROADS TO BECOME SNOW COVERED AND TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. THIS

WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. THE STRONG WINDS MAY

ALSO RESULT IN MINOR DAMAGE AND SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES. THE

GREATEST CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS NEAR

THE LAKE AND PORTER COUNTY INDIANA SHORELINE.

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Kinda looking like the Cedar Rapids area may be a relative screw zone. We were on the southeast edge of the first piece of the storm and now we are poised to be on the far west edge of the second piece. I don't know exactly how much snow we've received so far because I was very tired and slept through the entire first part, but I'm guessing it may be a few inches. Maybe we can get another few inches from the second deformation zone. It looks like Madison may be one of the big winners because they got a good hit from the first piece and are in a great spot to get hit hard again later. The RAP is really nailing southern WI later with several hours of heavy precip.

Edit: Locations just south of CR appear to have not gotten much so far due to warm temps, so they could end up the big losers. At least we've had a few inches(a couple new spotter reports say 4-5 inches in CR).

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I'm at the point where nothing would shock me snow totals wise at my house. Anywhere from 1-6" looks possible but now models are backing off the "2nd" defo band getting going and most of the hi res models have the trowal swinging through tomorrow evening, maybe even stalling west of 39 for awhile.

But if I had to pick I'd say 3.1" here.

Those far east placements of the 2nd defo band never made sense...how often are they that close to the low.

Anyways still looks like an inch or so here.

Cold sector precip currently looks a little weak but should get going again here soon.

Over here in the warm sector...we should easily see 1.5"+ of rain.

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