Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS with a move towards the NAM. Of course prior runs to today, the GFS was doing what the NAM is now doing. Or something. Another model for Alek to toss. 0z RGEM p-type maps look like the good band moves through N IL too. Also has a weird west to east band that sits over LAF. I'll take it. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Hmm... GFS really screws Wisconsin....Cuts precip down substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Don't often see GR storm tracks tracking through the rain/snow line into heavy snow lol. Sorry, too epic not to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS with a move towards the NAM. Of course prior runs to today on the GFS were doing what the NAM is now doing. Or something. Another model for Alek to toss. 0z RGEM p-type maps look like the good band moves through N IL too. Also has a weird west to east bands that sits over LAF. I'll take it. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 850mb 0 line looks a little bit further south on the 0z GFS for this area. Precip amount lower - looks like the defo band sets up around the state line and south. Hate model watching at this range but hard to discount, none-the-less. Either way, looking good for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Don't often see GR storm tracks tracking through the rain/snow line into heavy snow lol. Sorry, too epic not to post. That's pretty nasty looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Love hearing the TSSN reports from out west. Truly the sign of a dynamic winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 LOT weighs in on the NAM NEW 00Z GUIDANCE IS TRICKLING WITH WHAT IS AVAILABLE FROM THE NAM SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED TRENDS. WILL LEAVE EXISTING HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW WITH SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA REMAINING ONE OF THE MAIN CHALLENGES. STILL A GOOD RANGE OF MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN THE 00Z NAM AND 18Z GFS...AND AM WONDERING IF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOWN BY THE NAM FOR WATCH AREAS SOUTHEAST ARE ARTIFICALLY HIGHER DUE TO SOME KIND OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. 21Z SREF PLUMES SHOW TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF AMOUNTS FOR THE WATCH AREA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST...ONE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE AND ONE IN THE 5-6 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE LATEST GUIDANCE AND CONFER WITH INCOMING MID SHIFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 DSM had +SN for a time... KDSM 200341Z 05013KT 1/4SM R31/2400V3500FT +SN FG VV003 01/00 A2971 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0014 T00060000 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 DVN met reporting heavy snow just north of DVN in Parkview on FB. Been all rain here so far. Some more vigorous convection firing up around KC. That should make for another nice wave of heavy snow later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 thundersnow here where I am right now, just completely switched over. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 thundersnow here where I am right now, just completely switched over. Wow. Congrats. Oh, and further west in Edgar, NE, people are being moved into shelters from blizzard conditions and power out throughout the town...damn this thing is nasty. Figured I'd update the title considering this thing is clearly ripping in several areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS with a move towards the NAM. Of course prior runs to today, the GFS was doing what the NAM is now doing. Or something. Another model for Alek to toss. 0z RGEM p-type maps look like the good band moves through N IL too. Also has a weird west to east band that sits over LAF. I'll take it. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html The 0z GFS and NAM are much better for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 RAP goes ballistic with surface wind gusts tomorrow. Would think this is a bit overdone. If not this is kind of scary. Shows a small area of 70mph gusts near Burlington IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Straight TSRA to SN for ORD on the NAM. 7.5" of snow. 21 12/20 21Z 41 41 2 10 0.34 0.02 543 531 2.3 -21.8 984 100 -TSRA 012OVC225 0.0 2.7 24 12/21 00Z 33 32 331 19 0.44 0.00 537 528 -3.1 -22.0 988 100 SN 008OVC231 4.0 0.6 27 12/21 03Z 32 31 319 23 0.25 0.00 534 529 -6.0 -21.4 993 100 SN 009OVC249 2.5 0.4 30 12/21 06Z 32 30 316 23 0.10 0.00 531 530 -7.6 -22.9 998 100 -SN 005OVC136 1.0 1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 thundersnow here where I am right now, just completely switched over. Wow. So cool. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 TSSN video from Madrid, IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 lol, that dude weenied out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 TSSN video from Madrid, IA "Yeeaaaaahh!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Its very obvious the heavier returns on radar, where the uvm is better, is coinciding with these thundersnow reports. Obviously once the heavier returns abate for a time the precip will likely flip back to plain ole rain. But temp is dropping here too... down to 32.7 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Straight TSRA to SN for ORD on the NAM. 7.5" of snow. 21 12/20 21Z 41 41 2 10 0.34 0.02 543 531 2.3 -21.8 984 100 -TSRA 012OVC225 0.0 2.7 24 12/21 00Z 33 32 331 19 0.44 0.00 537 528 -3.1 -22.0 988 100 SN 008OVC231 4.0 0.6 27 12/21 03Z 32 31 319 23 0.25 0.00 534 529 -6.0 -21.4 993 100 SN 009OVC249 2.5 0.4 30 12/21 06Z 32 30 316 23 0.10 0.00 531 530 -7.6 -22.9 998 100 -SN 005OVC136 1.0 1.7 That's crazy. Can't wait for the new AFD's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 thundersnow here where I am right now, just completely switched over. Wow. The same DVN met I mentioned earlier in Parkview is now reporting heavy thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 TSSN video from Madrid, IA Nice. Your name says it all...TSSN is one of the most amazing things to experience in life. Congrats to those who have experienced it tonight. During the GHD blizzard, I was running around like a little kid during TSSN+ and ~3"/hr rates...and I'm 38 years old lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Milwaukee and southern Michigan Grinch Face Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Temperature dropped to 29.5 °F on top of the meteorology building. Visibility was down to 0.5 miles at MSN in the middle of the band. Clearing moving in now followed by a firehose of precip... hoping the freeze line can stay south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Looks like the center of the low at 10 PM CST is near Joplin, MO...996.0 mb (29.43"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 RAP goes ballistic with surface wind gusts tomorrow. Would think this is a bit overdone. If not this is kind of scary. Shows a small area of 70mph gusts near Burlington IA. Another area I'd watch for possible 70 mph gust potential would be closer to Lake Michigan as there should be some marine modification of the low levels near the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Iowa City officially reporting thundersnow as well at 0419z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Temperature dropped to 29.5 °F on top of the meteorology building. Visibility was down to 0.5 miles at MSN in the middle of the band. Clearing moving in now followed by a firehose of precip... hoping the freeze line can stay south. Precip looks like it's filling in a bit. Still coming down at a decent rate here. Feels like we are going to be right on the line for a time tomorrow morning. Hopefully we can stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 0.22" of liquid in DSM during the past hour...which would translate 3" of snow, assuming a 14:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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