Jonbo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Damn, forgot Iowa was even in this subforum...do we even have any members from there that post here? Mostly just lurk but following this very closely from West DSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Via 12z Euro snow map. 3" along and north of I-80 in IL. 6" line moved a bit north this run up to I-90 back WSW to DVN. 12" from DBQ-MSN-north side of MKE up to GRB over into northern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 NAM def looks to jump south this run. Nowcast time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 NAM def looks to jump south this run. Nowcast time minor and yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Don't know if this was posted but from LOT.. FORCING IS INCREDIBLY STRONG IN THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION AREA...INSTABILITY PRESENT ALIGNED WITH A FAVORED SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND STRONG DEEP CONVERGENCE. COBB DATA FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF EXPLOSIVE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 PLUS INCHES PER HOUR/ MOVING GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER NORTHERN IL FROM 3-10 PM...MOVING ACROSS CHICAGO DURING THE LATTER PART OF THAT TIME. THIS COALESCES WITH THE STRONGEST WIND PERIOD...WHICH STILL ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE FAVORS 50+ MPH GUSTS FOR A SEVERAL HOUR window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Going to be some impressive pressure gradients with this thing, good to see a big storm for this area, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 lol NAM only couple hundred south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 lol NAM only couple hundred south We were due for an 18Z NAM weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 lol NAM only couple hundred south It's not that much of a shift (at least once it gets this far east) certainly nothing to raise red flags. You're good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It's not that much of a shift (at least once it gets this far east) certainly nothing to raise red flags. You're good to go. Doing a zoom in on the surface low, it looks like it's maybe 50 miles south at 27 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 2nd Defo band has a different look to it this run.. looks really suspicious. Going to totally discount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Doing a zoom in on the surface low, it looks like it's maybe 50 miles south at 27 hours. yeah there are no shortage of borderline members right now but a 50 mile 18z NAM shift is no big thang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 looks really suspicious. Going to totally discount. The NAM run will be balanced by the RAP showing a 979 mb over Kenosha in about 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indeedinger Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'll take Decorah, IA for the jackpot zone Lurker here - I'm between Waterloo and Dubuque - looking like we're in for a whuppin' tonight . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looks like the surface low is located very close to Gage, OK at 2PM CST. The reported pressure at Gage is 995.5 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The nam closes off at H5 around STL on the 18z run. That's new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Most of N Indiana gets a WWA.... St Joe, Elkhart, warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Here is what it looks currently in my front yard. Note that the grass is still green in some places. The scene will look totally different by morning tomorrow. Oh, the plant in the lower center of the picture is a rosebush which is currently in dormancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The 18z NAM is trolling. Interesting southern shift. Might help the ORD crew ever so slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The 18z NAM is trolling. Interesting southern shift. Might help the ORD crew ever so slightly. My thoughts exactly. Off hour. NAM. Or could it be a nowcast trend..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I am suprised that ILX does not have something up (WWA?) for the extreme NW forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 How's everything looking for me still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 From Loco Ako in the Central/Western subforum...good stuff! Pretty severe dust storm ongoing in the TX panhandle right now spreading eastward. The latest METAR from Lubbock shows winds of 47MPH gusting to 66MPH, visibilities of a quarter mile and heavy blowing dust. KLBB 191907Z 25041G57KT 1/4SM -RA +DS VV008 18/M03 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 25057/1901 TWR VIS 1/4 RAB03 P0000 RVRNO The dust is clearly visible on radar, with correlation coefficient values of 0.3-0.4 (extremely low) associated with the echoes, a clear indication that the targets are not hydrometeors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Those winds are going to be over the Upper Midwest by tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 235 PM CST WED DEC 19 2012 DISCUSSION 230 PM CST JUST A QUICK NOTE ON THE HEADLINES. THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE. THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO MCHENRY...DEKALB...AND LASALLE COUNTIES...DUE AGAIN TO A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOWFALL RATES. WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. FULL AFD TO FOLLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Random question, with these kind of winds and falling temps, what would we be looking at in terms of wind chills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 MD out- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2177.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Wondering if GRB will hoist any bliz warnings, and if APX does for lakeshore counties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 WWA for central Indiana in the AFD, but I see no actual products listed...other than the Windy Advisory. BIGGEST HAZARD DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS. WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW MOVES BY FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHEAST SEEING SOUNDINGS MIX DOWN WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY. WITH PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE RECENT MILDER TEMPERATURES IT COULD COME AS A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM. WITH THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH TIMING TO MATCH UP WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE WINDY CONDITIONS. IN THE SOUTH WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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