OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 To me it looks like December 2009 shifted a little north. Sure enough 3rd analog on the CIPS guidance page is December 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ILZ003>005-008-010-011-181815- /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0005.121220T1200Z-121221T0600Z/ WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK... OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB 403 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY MORNING... MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW MAY PRODUCE SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LOCALLY 6 INCHES OR MORE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POSSIBLY NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Isn't DVN always dealing with the mixing issues? I have to say though, seeing the 00z Euro ensembles continue to be on the southern envelope of guidance looks good for you. Even the 00z GFS is ripping 50 kt winds down to just several hundred feet off the deck. More than close enough to mix down during that def band wrap around. Always seem to be riding that line on these types of systems, yes. I personally like the way things look around here for at least 5-6" and any dynamic cooling as this thing deepens could keep the column aloft a bit cooler than progged too. That alone could add another few inches into the totals around here. Again much more confidence in high impact amounts out by Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, on up into Central Wisconsin though. I'm glad my call in the other thread about being almost sure of a high impact snowstorm/blizzard before New Years is going to come through. I just saw some of the WSW's got expanded SE'ward a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Always seem to be riding that line on these types of systems, yes. I personally like the way things look around here for at least 5-6" and any dynamic cooling as this thing deepens could keep the column aloft a bit cooler than progged too. That alone could add another few inches into the totals around here. Again much more confidence in high impact amounts out by Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, on up into Central Wisconsin though. I'm glad my call in the other thread about being almost sure of a high impact snowstorm/blizzard before New Years is going to come through. I just saw some of the WSW's got expanded SE'ward a bit too. Doesn't surprise me that they were expanded SE. I mean given the model support there is at least 50% confidence that areas SE of the QCA see 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 33 and rain hi moneyman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Im sooo close to being all snow. GFS and Euro need to shift 10-15 miles South/SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Im sooo close to being all snow. GFS and Euro need to shift 10-15 miles South/SE. 3.9" for you. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 looks like will really be riding the Northwest gradient around here but will have to continue to watch models at least through 00 tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 How are you Alek? Hope all is well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 6z NAM is just over 5.5" for ORD (5" MDW)...I have to imagine that's probably the ceiling on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Thinking 10'-15"+ w/lake effect when all is said and done 'round here:D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 6z NAM is just over 5.5" for ORD (5" MDW)...I have to imagine that's probably the ceiling on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 NAM looking almost identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Saints- Turd here? GFS is not very impressive ...amts cut off sharply in N LaCrosse CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 NAM looking almost identical It's a little more compact and less phased looking at 850 but low placements are more or less identical. Pretty good signal that we shouldn't expect major shifts in ejection point as it leaves the rockies. Def more compact/weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 hi moneyman Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Saints- Turd here? GFS is not very impressive ...amts cut off sharply in N LaCrosse CO Ya not looking good. Though we have done well in the past being on the NW edge of these storms this far out. NAM not looking great this morning either though the EURO did give la crosse about .6 qpf last night. Talk about riding the edge check out the NAM DLL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Looks like more QPF through HR 36. Also looks colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Lol Hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Looks like more QPF through HR 36. Also looks colder. Vort is more compact as it ejects...doesn't jack up heights quite as much into IL/WI/MI...temps in the cold sector look about the same. Should be a good run for everyone who was already looking good. Surprisingly wet so far...probably a few inches for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 impressive defo band signal over EC Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Vort is more compact as it ejects...doesn't jack up heights quite as much into IL/WI/MI...temps in the cold sector look about the same. Should be a good run for everyone who was already looking good. Surprisingly wet so far...probably a few inches for Chicago. I think I'll like this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Perfect track for the Milwaukee crew pretty much. 992 just S. of Chicago. 1-1.25 QPF so far with 1.25 already starting to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Perfect track for the Milwaukee crew pretty much. 992 just S. of Chicago. 1-1.25 QPF so far with 1.25 already starting to show up. MKE has a good bit of rain much better further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 MKE has a good bit of rain much better further west Yeah they start out as rain, still looks like they get some nice backside snows though. 1.5 QPF from Milwaukee west to Madison and up to Sheboygan. 1.25-1.5 across most of S. WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 totals won't be anything great but the NAM and GFS continue to show +SN potential over NE Illinois with the defo band as the low deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I can't look at models right now, but any chance the weaker low will keep things colder on the east side of Lake Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Tight gradient QPF wise on these models. NAM has around .5 QPF for La Crosse but you go towards Rochester and Red Wing and it's less than .1 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Tight gradient QPF wise on these models. NAM has around .5 QPF for La Crosse but you go towards Rochester and Red Wing and it's less than .1 QPF. Ya shift the axis 30 miles east we get basically nothing. 30 west easily 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Some of these places across southern WI are going to be dangerously close to blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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