Justin Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I don't think were gonna do to bad around here, as this amps up to our east we will get into the heavy snow tomorrow morning with snow continuing into the afternoon. I wouldn't be surprised if kdvn ends up with around 5 to 8". With the wind thats going to be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 La Crosse updated their graphic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I agree, the 12Z NAM and GFS would indicate some rain mixing in around here between 12Z and 18Z Thur. This is just a guess, but I think Madison may be in a sweet spot with this storm and the mix will stay just to our SE. The Euro and UK seem to be indicating that. Hopefully the NAM and GFS are just a tad too far N on their placement. Not going to lie, 12z nam/gfs have eroded my confidence in not having mixing issues imby. Gonna be a matter of miles between all snow and mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think we live in a snow hole...... I will be glad just to get out there and play in the snow all the less. As for ground temps and freeze ups I think DTX area will be safe until Friday evening at dusk. Ah, the old "What have you done for me lately?" Because we are missing the first widespread winter storm of the season, I dont think its fair to say we live in a snow hole when for the last 5 years this area has done among the best in the entire region for synoptic snow (and this includes last years disaster). This storm, however, will suck. And also I agree about ground temps/freezeup, Friday will see flakes flying, but no slipping on icy puddles until at least dusk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 RPM model: Mixing doesn't even touch Dane County. R/S line stops at downtown Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 RPM model: Mixing doesn't even touch Dane County. R/S line stops at downtown Milwaukee. Lots of talk of the RPM. How does it usually perform? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Here are my calls as of now. MSN: 10-14" GRB: 10-14" RFD: 4-6" MLI: 2-4" ORD: 2-4" MKE: 2-4" LAF: 1-2" IND: 1" or less Probably most nervous about MSN and MKE. Was tempted to go higher but don't have enough confidence as both areas could have lingering ptype issues...MKE for a longer time obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Lots of talk of the RPM. How does it usually perform? It's a high resolution model, so is best close to the event. Fair to good I guess. It looks a lot similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Lots of talk of the RPM. How does it usually perform? hit or miss...probably more misses than hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 RPM model: Mixing doesn't even touch Dane County. R/S line stops at downtown Milwaukee. Sadly, it's an outlier at the moment. First call: MKE: 2-4", more like 4-6" in the western suburbs. Hopefully these turn out to be pessimistic numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 These rain to snow events seem like they always end up as being nowcast events. I am fully expecting to see some advisory areas end up as warnings, warnings to blizzards, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 12Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It appears the GGEM has the 850 zero line a little farther southeast than the american models and keeps Cedar Rapids all snow for the entire event and would really clobber us. Is the GEM known for a cold bias at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm wondering if some localized areas approach 20" especially where thundersnow occurs/persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Forget the NAM, I'm now going to hug the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 For the IN posters, it looks like Indystorm is in the Jackpot area. Maybe 6" with occasional whiteout conditions. I should be on the southern edge of the lake enhancement area and could pick up 2" or just a hair more. I predict the LAF crew to get 1 to 1.5". For those south around Lebanon, Indy, Muncie, etc., enjoy your wind blown 0.5". Any snowflake that hits your bare face will probably drill right through your skin. Been very busy and just now checking the board. Thanks for the forecast. I'm hoping that lake enhancement and lake effect will coincide just right for Michiana. What a powerful blizzard off to our nw though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 My optimistic predictions: MSN: 12-16" GRB: 11-14" RFD: 5-7" MLI: 3-6" ORD: 3-5" MKE: 4-7" LAF: 1-2" IND: 1-1.5" Add a few sites: Waukesha: 8-12" Lake Geneva: 7-11" Wisconsin Dells: 10-14" Woodstock: 4-7" DeKalb: 3-5" Racine: 4-6" Winner around Fond du Lac, Washington County, WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 So I was lazy and didnt get up very early this morning, but I ran a 5km WRF simulation last night using the 00Z NAM data, and here are the QPF amounts: (Scale is the same as the HPC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm wondering if some localized areas approach 20" especially where thundersnow occurs/persists. Wouldn't surprise me at all...I think just south of Sheboygan is the place to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'll take Decorah, IA for the jackpot zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'll take Decorah, IA for the jackpot zone Damn, forgot Iowa was even in this subforum...do we even have any members from there that post here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Damn, forgot Iowa was even in this subforum...do we even have any members from there that post here? We have a few around the Cedar Rapids area and a couple other lurkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Damn, forgot Iowa was even in this subforum...do we even have any members from there that post here? You rang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 We have a few around the Cedar Rapids area and a couple other lurkers I used to lurk for a long time but recently I started to post alot. Anyways, it's the calm before the storm. Current temperature is at 34F. Precip should start in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Metric conversion for those all wondering about the Canadian maps. 2.5mm =1" snow (assuming 10:1 ratio) 5mm = 2" 10mm = ~4" 15mm = ~6" 20mm = ~8" 25mm = ~10" 30mm = ~12" 40mm= ~16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Jackpot is somewhere NE of Madison... Beaver Dam maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 My optimistic predictions: MSN: 12-16" GRB: 11-14" RFD: 5-7" MLI: 3-6" ORD: 3-5" MKE: 4-7" LAF: 1-2" IND: 1-1.5" Add a few sites: Waukesha: 8-12" Lake Geneva: 7-11" Wisconsin Dells: 10-14" Woodstock: 4-7" DeKalb: 3-5" Racine: 4-6" Winner around Fond du Lac, Washington County, WI. I would take that. BTW, thanks for throwing something out for DKB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 You rang? ohai Anyways, 12z 4km NAM has a max 900mb wind of 68-72kts eass of Des Moines and a speck of 18-20" of snow in NE Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Surface low starting to eject Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Is that low in NW Kansas the surface low or is it just a secondary low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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