wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 you have to imagine the watches are 99% related to a potential brief period of +SN and high winds and not accumulations. Based on accumulation texts, that is clearly the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 So lake temps only really factor in with some sort of easterly wind... makes sense. Here's hoping the models are wrong and BowMe gets a foot Once lake temperatures get below 40° overall, mixing is a lot less likely especially if you don't have a marginal situation where you have SE or E winds. Mid 30s pretty much no affect at all up this way at least. BowMe will get 6"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Bow- Still no ice here. Need some real cold to make ice. Guys are itching to get out over Christmas. This snow will help drop temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 ARX and GRB have expanded WSWarnings further northwest in accordance with the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 12 GFS...... should be good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 update from LSE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1046 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012 .SHORT TERM... 1046 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012 WITH THE LATEST 19.12Z NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS COMING IN WITH MORE STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AND FURTHER NORTHWEST...WILL UPDATE THE ADVISORY AREA TO WARNING BY NOON TODAY. WILL ALSO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS AREA WIDE...AND EXTEND THE WARNINGS TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY AS THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE IMPACTS INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WI. IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING...THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING STORM FOR THOSE THAT ARE OUTDOORS. DRIFTS OF 2-4 FEET...CLOSED ROADS/DRIVEWAYS...WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALL ARE LIKELY. EMERGENCY SERVICES WILL LIKELY NEED TO STOP FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. TRAVEL MUST BE HIGHLY DISCOURAGED AS ROAD CREWS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH THE SNOW RATE AND WIND RECOVERING OF THE ROAD WITH SNOW. IMPACTS WILL NOT BE AS GREAT FURTHER NORTHWEST OUT OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING BUT IT WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT. ANY HELP LOCAL MEDIA CAN PROVIDE TO THIS EFFECT WILL BE HELPFUL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 First MCD for our storm. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1047 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL CO...NWRN/W-CNTRL/N-CNTRL KS...SWRN/S-CNTRL/CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...BLIZZARD VALID 191647Z - 192245Z SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 19Z ACROSS PARTS OF CO/NEB/KS...AND SPREAD EWD/ENEWD INTO THE EVENING. DISCUSSION...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SWRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE AS STRONG DCVA LEADING AN APPROACHING PV MAX OVERTAKES A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE A VERY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT W/NW OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW SUPPORTS NNWLY/NLY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AFTER 19Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM E-CNTRL/NERN CO EWD ACROSS NWRN/W-CNTRL/N-CNTRL KS AND SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB. SUPPORT FOR THESE WINDS WILL EMANATE FROM 40-50 KT OF 0-1-KM MEAN FLOW PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AMIDST STEEP SFC-1-KM-AGL LAPSE RATES DRIVEN BY INCREASING COLD ADVECTION WITH HEIGHT JUST ABOVE THE SFC. STRONG 850-500-MB FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT ASCENT OVERLAPPING WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO YIELD AN EWD/ENEWD-DEVELOPING BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR. THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND WILL DEVELOP EWD/ENEWD FROM PARTS OF NERN CO INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL KS AND ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB. WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BURSTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS WILL SUPPORT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIES WITHIN THE OVERLAPPING AREAS OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR 1-1.5-IN/HR SNOW RATES AND STRONGEST WINDS -- I.E. FROM NERN CO ENEWD INTO S-CNTRL NEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm rooting for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The 12GFS drops almost 2 inches of liquid on Madison... double what La Crosse is showing... Potential is there for huge snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS has temps going into the low 40Fs in MKE... ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm rooting for the NAM. That's what I'm riding! And a low passing near GYY! Grid says changeover at 3pm. Introduced "Heavy Snow" for evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 hi-res runs very unimpressive for NE IL and SE WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS has temps going into the low 40Fs in MKE... ouch Well, we do have a one inch snowpack here lol. Oh who am I kidding, though it's possible cities as far south as Saukville avoid most of the rain, maybe some mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 BowMe will get 6"! Thinking 1-4" here.. I'll need one of your slanted rulers or measure drifts to come in with a 6" report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Well, we do have a one inch snowpack here lol. Oh who am I kidding, though it's possible cities as far south as Saukville avoid most of the rain, maybe some mixing. GFS would be watering his palms for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 you have to imagine the watches are 99% related to a potential brief period of +SN and high winds and not accumulations. Their AFD states that to be true HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING CHICAGOLAND AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. THIS WATCH IS MUCH MORE TOWARD IMPACT-BASED BETWEEN THE COMBINATION OF SNOWFALL RATES AND WIND DURING THURSDAY EVENING AS OPPOSED TO ACTUALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY HAS REMAINED THE SAME. With more erotic writing that follows: COBB DATA FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF EXPLOSIVE SNOWFALL RATES /2 PLUS INCHES PER HOUR/ MOVING GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER NORTHERN IL FROM 3-10 PM...MOVING ACROSS CHICAGO DURING THE LATTER PART OF THAT TIME. THIS COALESCES WITH THE STRONGEST WIND PERIOD...WHICH STILL ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE FAVORS 50+ MPH GUSTS FOR A SEVERAL HOUR window. BECAUSE OF THESE HIGHER END SNOWFALL RATES AND WINDS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH EAST AND SOUTH. AT LEAST A HIGHER END ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IS THERE...INCLUDING TEMPORARY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AND WITHIN THE CURRENT WARNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Maybe a future Blizzard Watch/Warning for near Rockford as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Radar starting to fill in beautifully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 this is going to be a killer storm for the IA/MN/WI crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looks like Johndee adjusted his maps and stopped trying to will the snow toward him with maps that's won't verify. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 DTX still thinking 1-2" wraparound for SE MI. Euro, NAM, GEM would agree...GFS not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looks like Johndee adjusted his maps and stopped trying to will the snow toward him with maps that's won't verify. Jon Or toward his advertising base on the cusp of potential holiday week snowmobiling trips . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Geos, could cut it close, DVN should cover there Northern,ILL counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Hi-res models have been showing a pretty formidable dry slot...something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 DTX still thinking 1-2" wraparound for SE MI. Euro, NAM, GEM would agree...GFS not so much. I think we live in a snow hole...... I will be glad just to get out there and play in the snow all the less. As for ground temps and freeze ups I think DTX area will be safe until Friday evening at dusk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm gussing when all is said and done, 2-3" for me hre in Saginaw. At least I'll be cheking all the Michigan webcams on my website to see who gets the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Moisture comparison for the heck of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 this is going to be a killer storm for the IA/MN/WI crew Not this guy, almost too close to call here. Hoping on a Christmas miracle! Two brown Christmases in a row would really suck living in Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The Euro very similar to last nights, better for Chitown and Milwaukee than many of the models today (though a tad warmer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I have no real clue, but it sure seems like it may be close for a time for MSN. If you believe the 12z runs. Not going to lie, 12z nam/gfs have eroded my confidence in not having mixing issues imby. Gonna be a matter of miles between all snow and mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.