gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Someone last nite mentioned return moisture off the gulf? Check out Corpus Christi ...24 hrs ago dew points were 39F...now its 70F with 30mph south winds... http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCRP.html NAM says whoa..... Blizzard for la crosse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 12z NAM has that band for N IL/SE WI that the GFS has been advertising... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 thundersnow explosion over Jainesville into McHenry Co by hr 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 NAM is coming in much hotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 NAM is coming in much hotter. Is it realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Impressive difference in strength and placement of ripping deformation band which was simpy due to a tiny shift S as the low ejects the Rockies. Not uncommon during leeside events. Impressive end result though. Depicts non-linearity of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 12z NAM has that band for N IL/SE WI that the GFS has been advertising... 1" + 6 hr jackpot over McHenry Co...would be a crazy solution. might have to road trip to my parents place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Tapping the breaks as it moves past Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Is it realistic? In this case, I believe it is. Seen this so often...rapid model adjustments as the upper low is beginning to eject the Rockies. Models still can't handle complex interactions with terrain...and how that feed backs to the synoptics. It can go both ways. Wait for GFS to confirm, but NAM is likely on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 epic and still ripping at hr 36..honestly LOT could go with bliz watches for their NW cwa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Tapping the breaks as it moves past Chicago. the NAM is advertising one of the wildest of the rare heavy rain to heavy snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 We will see... This is looking more and more, like an all rain event for MBY...... I am treating it like a spring severe storm, and not so much a snow storm. TV mets were talking wind gusts could near 60 for a brief period tomorrow, and that has me worried. We might see 1-2" IMBY, but I think at this point, that might be generous. Wind damage has me more concerned at this point. I am not even worried about snow. Not only that, with the falling temps, ice is going to be a concern as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 We will see... This is looking more and more, like an all rain event for MBY...... I am treating it like a spring severe storm, and not so much a snow storm. TV mets were talking wind gusts could near 60 for a brief period tomorrow, and that has me worried. We might see 1-2" IMBY, but I think at this point, that might be generous. Wind damage has me more concerned at this point. I am not even worried about snow. Not only that, with the falling temps, ice is going to be a concern as well.. It has never been all rain...an inch on the backside is pretty much the worst case floor at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 the NAM is advertising one of the wildest of the rare heavy rain to heavy snow events. That it is. Still going at 39 hours, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 That it is. Still going at 39 hours, lol. going to be close but ORD is probably getting close to warning criteria on this run...after getting near 50 6 hrs earlier. this would pretty much be all snow especially NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 going to be close but ORD is probably getting close to warning criteria on this run...after getting near 50 6 hrs earlier. What a tough call if you're at the forecast desk at LOT, you know? If it would pan out as seen on the NAM of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I am going to say it. There will be thundersnow from 18-03z on the 21st as the PV fold intersects the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 What a tough call if you're at the forecast desk at LOT, you know? If it would pan out as seen on the NAM of course... I'd bump the northwest counties to winter storm warnings...even if the totals fall short it's going to fall in a short time with a lot of wind so the impacts will be there. I'd probably go with a WWA for remaining north of I80 counties for similar impact related reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I am going to say it. There will be thundersnow from 9-18z on the 19th as the PV fold intersects the front. don't you think we'll see it later tomorrow afternoon and evening too? Also, now 12z NAM with the 6" line over me, more north and west. I think LOT will probably extend headlines east soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 don't you think we'll see it later tomorrow afternoon and evening too? Also, now 12z NAM with the 6" line over me, more north and west. I think LOT will probably extend headlines east soon. I had my dates wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I had my dates wrong Down here we're calling in "Thundersnow12's Revenge" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 If the NAM is right, my worst fear is coming true. A last minute jump nw sends CR/IC area over the snowfall total cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 MKE snowfall forecast, 16.7" in Madison! More like a snowfall forecast for an upslope event in the Rockies than for a storm in Wisconsin Surface low now centered at the NM/CO/TX border, expected to reach the plains in the next 6 hours. Large area of precip developing across the plains, even have some echoes in northeast IA. Best snows across the front range at the moment, 19 °F and snowing in Denver. Just have one more final exam to take this morning and then I'm free to track this storm, perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I love the orientation of the upper levels. Typically when an upper PV pounches in from the W/SW, you get a very well defined dry airstream intrusion and large dryslot. In positive tilt configurations, typically moist DMC is shunted well away from the upper level low/surface low along the warm front...which kills moist advection into the deform band. In this nearly SSW flow and neutral tilt configuration, much of the DMC farther S will be feeding directly into the deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Now showing a foot in La crosse. Drastic change hard to take it too literally without other model support. Should be the most interesting storm to watch unfold in about 800 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 NAM verbatim is depicting a vertically stacked PV tower in that 500 map, the epitome of a deep tropospheric occlusion. Stacking PV anomalies means your cyclone has reached peak intensity allowed by thermodynamics/dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 epic and still ripping at hr 36..honestly LOT could go with bliz watches for their NW cwa Bring it on! I hope it thunders at the end of the storm. I didn't get any from the GHDB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Bring it on! I hope it thunders at the end of the storm. I didn't get any from the GHDB. IMO you're too far east for the best thundersnow chances...when I said NW cwa, i meant McHenry Co out to RFD. Warm tongue and dryslot will be issues for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Green Bay office prepped me last night for the inevitable and to fuhgettabout about a little colder solution earlier in the storm. See what the rest do at 12z but I bet they come in not much different and hot. Backside still looks sexy for a few hr ride on the NAM. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES OR SNOW AMOUNTS THIS EVENING. 21Z SREF AND 00Z NAM CAME IN WITHOUT ANY SURPRISES...AND SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS. FEELING IS THAT LOW- LEVEL CYCLONE WL STILL TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER W THAN SHOWN BY THE MODELS...WITH SFC CENTER PROBABLY TRACKING JUST SE OF MKE AND OUT OVER LAKE MICHGIAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Fun crash at ORD, but probably 3-4" tops: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KORD.txt Same story at MKE: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KMKE.txt Getting a little uncomfortable at MSN, but 1.75" total liquid equiv: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KMSN.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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