SchaumburgStormer Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 LOT HAVE BEEN PAINSTAKINGLY AGONIZING ABOUT WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES. VERY STRONG AND BORDERLINE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND THUNDERSNOW POTENTIAL WOULD CERTAINLY ARGUE FOR EXPANDING HEADLINES EASTWARD. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS IS VERY HIGH AS IS HOW BLOWABLE THE SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE WITH TEMPS HOVERING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING DURING MAJORITY OF THE SNOW TIME AND WITH DURATION OF SNOW LIKELY TO BE BRIEF. GENERALLY THINKING 1-3 INCHES EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH...THOUGH THUNDERSNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INFLATE THOSE TOTALS. OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LOOKING MORE LIKE A SOLID 3-6 INCH EVENT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. GIVEN THIS IS WINTER/WIND EVENT IS OVER 32-38 HOURS OUT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SNOW AMOUNTS AND DRIFTABILITY OF THE SNOW AM NOT GOING TO EXPAND CURRENT HEADLINES NOW...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY WINTER STORM WARNING WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED EAST INTO THE CHGO METRO AREA LATER TODAY. AM GOING TO UPGRADE FAR NORTHWEST CWA TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS...DO ANTICIPATE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH BLOWING/FALLING SNOW AND IN EFFORT TO CLEAN UP W/W/A MAP FOR ROCKFORD AREA DECIDED TO UPGRADE EVEN THOUGH ONSET OF WINTER PRECIP IS WELL OVER 24 HOURS AWAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Turtle has his blizzard warning! Gaylord has max total's here of 14-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 0z Euro with 6" roughly along/north of I-88 and 9" for the northern tier of counties. Seems way overedone but I'll take it! Five day holiday weekend starts at 2:30 Thursday for me. Will be car pooling home then from Elmhurst. May see about getting out a bit earlier if all hell is cutting loose to the north. It's been an easy winter commute-wise so far. Really liking the point forecast totals to my northwest across the border. 10+ seems like a potential easy mark just beyond Janesville even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 6z models cut back on totals around here. Still could see 6 inches. We Shall see. Almost nowcast time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Great AFD from Gino "GIVEN THE EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION PROGGED TO TAKE PLACE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING INTO THE DRY INTRUSION AM QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE DEFORMATION BAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 0z ECMWF Text List YYZ: FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.2 0.6 1003 81 98 0.10 549 546 FRI 06Z 21-DEC 4.3 0.9 995 90 96 0.24 536 540 FRI 12Z 21-DEC 3.4 -4.5 993 89 74 0.11 529 535 FRI 18Z 21-DEC 2.9 -4.6 991 82 99 0.03 525 533 SAT 00Z 22-DEC 1.7 -5.4 992 90 92 0.11 525 532 SAT 06Z 22-DEC -1.3 -9.6 996 79 97 0.10 526 529 SAT 12Z 22-DEC -2.1 -10.2 1001 77 87 0.13 529 528 SAT 18Z 22-DEC -2.0 -10.0 1006 70 21 0.04 532 527 Wow, that's some beefed up wrap around. >0.25" after sfc temps go below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Im banking on being in the kettle moraine which would prevent some mixing. Fox6 uses a Rpm? model showed the rain snow line Just barely reaching Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 For the IN posters, it looks like Indystorm is in the Jackpot area. Maybe 6" with occasional whiteout conditions. I should be on the southern edge of the lake enhancement area and could pick up 2" or just a hair more. I predict the LAF crew to get 1 to 1.5". For those south around Lebanon, Indy, Muncie, etc., enjoy your wind blown 0.5". Any snowflake that hits your bare face will probably drill right through your skin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 For the IN posters, it looks like Indystorm is in the Jackpot area. Maybe 6" with occasional whiteout conditions. I should be on the southern edge of the lake enhancement area and could pick up 2" or just a hair more. I predict the LAF crew to get 1 to 1.5". For those south around Lebanon, Indy, Muncie, etc., enjoy your wind blown 0.5".Any snowflake that hits your bare face will probably drill right through your skin. IND says 1-3" for Kokomo. I'm sticking with my call from yesterday of 0-2" and some flash freezing causing school delays locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 For the IN posters, it looks like Indystorm is in the Jackpot area. Maybe 6" with occasional whiteout conditions. I should be on the southern edge of the lake enhancement area and could pick up 2" or just a hair more. I predict the LAF crew to get 1 to 1.5". For those south around Lebanon, Indy, Muncie, etc., enjoy your wind blown 0.5". Any snowflake that hits your bare face will probably drill right through your skin. I'm going to remain optimistic the winds will push some lake water down this way. I'm hoping for a ground covering, but I doubt it comes to fruition. The interstate was a mess last week after a quick .1" dropped on it. Everyone forgot how to drive on it after the Winter That Wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Wow, that's some beefed up wrap around. >0.25" after sfc temps go below freezing. yea here in cmh as well (.28). was kind of surprised. Would be our biggest snowfall in two years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looks like everything coming together west of Texas panhandle as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 For the IN posters, it looks like Indystorm is in the Jackpot area. Maybe 6" with occasional whiteout conditions. I should be on the southern edge of the lake enhancement area and could pick up 2" or just a hair more. I predict the LAF crew to get 1 to 1.5". For those south around Lebanon, Indy, Muncie, etc., enjoy your wind blown 0.5". Any snowflake that hits your bare face will probably drill right through your skin. At this point, something is better than nothing at this point (for the time being). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Zone forecast for Cook county. Rock on. Thursday Night: Very windy. Cloudy. Snow and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of snow after midnight. Areas of blowing snow. Snow may be heavy at times in the evening. Several inches of accumulation possible. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 30 to 45 mph in the evening decreasing to 25 to 40 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 65 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 well, futility record is going down. final IMBY call of 1.7" with med-high confidence. (should be a pretty cool event as far as sub 2" snows go though) bonus callz thundersnow: 2.7 chistorm: 3.5 LAF crew: .9 bowMKE: 6.8" turtletown: 12" QC: 2.8" Mt. Geos: 5.5" DeKalb: 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looking forward to the nowcasting discussion in this thread as the system starts moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 And here we were less than 2 years ago thinking we'd never see winds like GHD supplied again...northeast IL thursday evening. Gust potential certainly looks there but GHD did it for hours on end...this looks like a relatively brief window in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Second call with revisions. Will do a final after today's 12z suite. ORD: 1.5" 3.0" MKE: 3.9" 5.0" MSN: 9.9" 12.0" LSE: 8.4" DBQ: 9.8" 11.5" MLI: 3.8" 2.5" FWA: 1.2" SBN: 2.9 4.0" LAF: T IND: T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Nam might take a step south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Im banking on being in the kettle moraine which would prevent some mixing. Fox6 uses a Rpm? model showed the rain snow line Just barely reaching Milwaukee. That usually a good area to be when things are marginal temperature wise. Terrain is about 400-500 feet higher then the lake. Listening to the LOT media briefing: they're are contemplating expanding wx headlines eastward soon. FIM image Skilling posted. 6pm at the height of rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 That usually a good area to be when things are marginal temperature wise. Terrain is about 400-500 feet higher then the lake. Listening to the LOT media briefing: they're are contemplating expanding wx headlines eastward soon. FIM image Skilling posted. 6pm at the height of rush hour. cold rain for both of us there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looking at the 6z model runs...looks like both the NAM and GFS are in the same boat here (4-8 inches)... I'll say 6 inches here at the house (north) and south end of town 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 ..MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY .AN INTENSE WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW...HIGH WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AT LEAST 50 TO 55 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIFE THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE THAT BECOMES STRANDED OR OTHERWISE NOT PREPARED. IAZ040>042-051>054-063>065-076-077-ILZ001-192015- /O.CAN.KDVN.WS.W.0003.121220T0000Z-121221T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KDVN.BZ.W.0001.121220T0000Z-121221T0000Z/ BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-JO DAVIESS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE... VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO... IOWA CITY...TIPTON...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...GALENA 409 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... ..WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * TIMING...RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OR END THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * SNOWFALL...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES. * WIND...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. * VISIBILITY...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND HIGH WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. * TEMPERATURE/WIND CHILL...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S TO THE TEENS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS MAY BE AS LOW AS ZERO TOWARD EVENING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING. DUE TO INITIAL WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES... ROADWAYS MAY BECOME ICY. HIGH WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS 6 TO 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE...SO ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY AND TAKE YOUR WINTER SURVIVAL KIT. A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS THAT FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. THIS WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS... MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL! IF YOU MUST TRAVEL DUE TO AN EMERGENCY...TAKE YOUR WINTER SURVIVAL KIT. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE UNTIL HELP ARRIVES. If this verifies, WOW! This will no doubt be a crippling storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 6z NAM give Chicago not a lot of love... MKE looks pretty good position and of course north and west look great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Someone last nite mentioned return moisture off the gulf? Check out Corpus Christi ...24 hrs ago dew points were 39F...now its 70F with 30mph south winds... http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCRP.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Nam might take a step south stronger/north at 850 much stronger....beast of a run for Iowa and western WI. Much more rainy for eastern WI EDIT: this is going to be a bad run for those in NE IL and SW WI heavy rain through 18z Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Precip shield with a sizable jog northwest on the NAM. Even MSP gets some...but daddlylonglegs in the sweet spot now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Damn, at first the 12z NAM looked to be farther south, but it's actually the warmest yet for southeast Iowa. The 850 freezing line is being pulled up over Cedar Rapids during the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 stronger/north at 850 much stronger....beast of a run for Iowa and western WI. Much more rainy for eastern WI EDIT: this is going to be a bad run for those in NE IL and SW WI heavy rain through 18z Thurs NAM is coming in much hotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 impressive defo band and omega over NE IL by hr 30 but serious warm tongue as well...heights are going to have to crash hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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