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December 20th-22nd Major Winter Storm Part II

andyhb

By andyhb,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

The GFS has quite a heavy band of deformation snow JUST miss much of West Michigan. Ludington gets lucky and gets hit by it. If we can just get the stinking low to move a little more south and/or wrap colder air in quicker, we could definitely get some nice snow. While often the lows move more NW at the last minute, there are other times where a strong low can easily pull cold air from Canada into itself...and that is definitely a possibility. We shall see.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

And here we were less than 2 years ago thinking we'd never see winds like GHD supplied again...northeast IL thursday evening.

Nothing like 75kts at 900mb. Wow.

DVN mentioned gravity waves associated with the bombing cyclone the other day in an AFD. If some of these waves accompany any precip there's probably a pretty good chance there could be a few gusts topping 60mph. I think the best chance for this would be over northeast IL towards 00z at the height of the bombing process, and also where precip is still ongoing.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Nothing like 75kts at 900mb. Wow.

DVN mentioned gravity waves associated with the bombing cyclone the other day in an AFD. If some of these waves accompany any precip there's probably a pretty good chance there could be a few gusts topping 60mph. I think the best chance for this would be over northeast IL towards 00z at the height of the bombing process, and also where precip is still ongoing.

The 12/15/87 storm had gravity waves galore which enhanced the winds, but it was an extreme case. Certainly something to keep a close eye on if we observe them developing in real-time.

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hm8

hm8

Posted
Posted

Euro looks like its gonna continue the slight slowing down trend

Track ends up very similar to 12z, but interestingly QPF is noticeably different. Gradient it much tighter SE-NW in WI. Wetter for IL to, bulls-eye of 1.75-2" in the NE corner IL.

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hm8

hm8

Posted
Posted

Looks like the Euro beefed up QPF some in the defo band over northeast IL thursday evening.

Yup. Gonna be close though on the change over. By 00z Friday, when the Euro has the biggest 6hr-QPF in the area, it shows the 850mb freezing line well passed but the surface still just above freezing. And of course that's where those isotherm lines are at the end of the 6hr period.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

0z ECMWF Text List

LSE:

THU 06Z 20-DEC -2.7 -5.3 1016 88 99 0.03 546 534
THU 12Z 20-DEC -2.4 -6.1 1011 91 99 0.19 541 532
THU 18Z 20-DEC -2.7 -6.8 1009 84 97 0.15 536 529
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -3.7 -8.4 1010 78 98 0.04 533 525

MSN:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 0.2 -3.3 1014 93 99 0.10 550 539
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.5 -4.7 1007 97 99 0.40 545 539
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.4 -5.4 1000 94 100 0.27 538 537
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -0.1 -6.7 1001 86 97 0.25 532 531
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -1.1 -7.9 1007 77 87 0.07 533 527

SBM:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.6 -3.4 1016 91 98 0.02 550 537
THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.1 -4.1 1008 98 100 0.39 546 540
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.9 -4.3 1000 96 100 0.31 540 539
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.0 -5.8 997 93 97 0.31 532 535
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.5 -7.5 1001 85 97 0.27 531 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -1.4 -9.6 1009 75 77 0.07 534 527

MKE:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 2.0 -2.1 1015 97 99 0.10 552 540
THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.6 -2.9 1005 96 100 0.37 548 543
THU 18Z 20-DEC 1.9 -1.5 997 98 99 0.28 540 542
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.0 -5.4 994 93 99 0.48 531 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.8 -7.2 1001 84 97 0.30 530 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -1.4 -9.5 1009 73 80 0.06 534 527

RAC:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 2.6 -2.0 1015 93 98 0.09 552 540
THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.3 -1.7 1005 94 99 0.32 548 544
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.1 -0.2 995 96 98 0.30 540 543
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.4 -5.1 993 93 99 0.54 531 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.0 -7.1 1000 84 98 0.33 530 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -1.1 -9.5 1009 74 82 0.07 534 527

ENW:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 2.7 -2.1 1015 91 99 0.09 552 541
THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.4 -1.1 1004 94 100 0.29 548 545
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.8 0.5 994 96 96 0.30 540 544
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.0 -5.3 993 93 99 0.57 531 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.8 -7.1 1001 85 98 0.31 530 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -1.9 -9.4 1010 74 80 0.05 535 527

CID:

THU 00Z 20-DEC 0.9 -1.3 1014 81 100 0.02 552 541
THU 06Z 20-DEC 0.6 -3.5 1009 91 96 0.18 549 542
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.0 -4.4 1003 93 99 0.38 541 539
THU 18Z 20-DEC -2.9 -5.9 1005 86 96 0.17 536 531
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -6.7 -7.2 1012 80 45 0.02 534 525

DVN:

THU 00Z 20-DEC 2.2 -0.1 1014 77 97 0.01 554 542
THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.1 -1.9 1009 97 98 0.23 551 544
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.9 -0.3 1000 98 80 0.32 544 543
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.1 -5.4 999 90 99 0.32 535 536
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -3.7 -6.4 1007 77 90 0.13 534 528

RFD:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.5 -2.6 1012 96 100 0.10 552 542
THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.3 -0.3 1002 97 91 0.35 546 545
THU 18Z 20-DEC 1.1 -1.4 995 97 100 0.24 537 541
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.0 -6.3 999 88 96 0.34 532 532
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -1.5 -7.3 1006 78 87 0.08 533 528

UGN:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.1 -1.8 1014 88 98 0.08 553 541
THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.9 -0.1 1003 92 99 0.31 548 546
THU 18Z 20-DEC 4.4 1.6 994 96 96 0.33 540 545
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.3 -5.0 993 93 99 0.61 531 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.9 -7.0 1001 85 98 0.32 530 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -1.7 -9.2 1010 74 81 0.05 535 527

DPA:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.0 -1.3 1012 87 100 0.06 553 543
THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.8 2.2 1001 95 97 0.43 548 548
THU 18Z 20-DEC 4.4 3.7 992 98 99 0.35 539 546
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.7 -5.6 995 92 99 0.63 531 535
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -0.1 -7.1 1003 84 95 0.22 531 529
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -4.2 -7.4 1012 76 69 0.01 536 526

ORD:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.7 -0.7 1013 84 100 0.03 553 543
THU 12Z 20-DEC 3.3 1.9 1002 92 96 0.49 549 548
THU 18Z 20-DEC 4.7 4.3 992 98 95 0.39 540 546
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.3 -5.0 993 93 100 0.68 530 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.8 -7.0 1001 85 98 0.29 531 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -2.5 -8.1 1010 75 78 0.03 535 527

MDW:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.3 0.1 1012 80 100 0.02 554 544
THU 12Z 20-DEC 4.2 2.9 1001 91 96 0.46 550 549
THU 18Z 20-DEC 6.8 4.9 991 97 94 0.29 540 547
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.6 -4.5 992 94 98 0.54 530 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.8 -7.0 1001 85 97 0.28 531 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -1.8 -8.1 1010 73 82 0.04 535 527

PIA:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.1 3.6 1007 94 99 0.51 555 549
THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.0 6.6 996 97 79 0.38 547 550
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.2 1.8 992 97 77 0.48 534 541
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -2.3 -6.6 1005 78 97 0.19 534 529
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -5.4 -6.5 1013 74 87 0.01 534 524

DEC:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 7.3 6.9 1005 80 90 0.09 558 554
THU 12Z 20-DEC 9.4 9.5 996 95 60 0.52 551 554
THU 18Z 20-DEC 8.3 3.4 991 90 42 0.15 535 542
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -1.9 -6.8 1004 78 98 0.19 534 531
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -5.5 -7.0 1013 70 93 0.01 534 524

STL:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 11.4 9.8 1002 87 71 0.11 558 557
THU 12Z 20-DEC 11.7 8.7 994 97 47 0.25 549 554
THU 18Z 20-DEC 2.0 -6.5 1002 85 89 0.08 535 534
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -1.5 -7.8 1013 55 64 0.06 538 527

VPZ:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 4.4 3.9 1002 94 100 0.41 552 550
THU 18Z 20-DEC 8.2 5.9 991 95 95 0.29 542 549
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.1 -1.7 989 97 87 0.24 528 537
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.7 -7.2 999 89 99 0.36 530 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.0 -8.8 1007 73 93 0.09 534 528
FRI 18Z 21-DEC -0.3 -9.2 1014 70 47 0.01 538 528

LAF:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.4 6.3 1001 92 100 0.32 554 554
THU 18Z 20-DEC 10.5 7.0 991 94 59 0.42 543 550
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.6 -3.4 992 95 81 0.09 530 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -1.1 -7.2 1003 77 95 0.14 532 529
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -2.4 -8.7 1010 69 91 0.03 535 527

IND:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.7 8.4 1002 88 96 0.19 557 555
THU 18Z 20-DEC 10.0 7.0 994 95 62 0.48 547 552
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.6 -5.8 997 85 83 0.07 532 535
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -2.3 -7.7 1005 74 97 0.11 532 529
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -2.8 -8.4 1010 69 98 0.03 534 527

BMG:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 8.5 9.2 1001 93 92 0.25 558 556
THU 18Z 20-DEC 11.3 6.3 994 97 56 0.43 547 552
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.5 -7.1 1001 78 93 0.07 535 534
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -3.0 -8.1 1009 67 97 0.07 534 527
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -4.2 -7.9 1013 67 92 0.01 536 526

OKK:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 6.4 6.6 1003 85 100 0.19 555 553
THU 18Z 20-DEC 9.2 8.0 993 92 61 0.51 546 552
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 2.1 -3.4 991 87 75 0.06 529 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -0.4 -6.6 999 85 99 0.13 530 531
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.4 -8.0 1006 74 94 0.09 533 528
FRI 18Z 21-DEC -1.0 -9.5 1013 66 71 0.02 537 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -1.8 -8.0 1018 66 6 0.01 545 531

FWA:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 5.1 5.6 1006 74 90 0.04 555 551
THU 18Z 20-DEC 7.5 5.3 996 93 69 0.54 548 552
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 4.7 -4.4 991 82 68 0.14 530 537
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.2 -5.2 993 94 97 0.11 528 534
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 1.2 -6.9 1001 81 97 0.10 530 530
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.4 -8.1 1008 65 86 0.06 535 529
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.5 -9.2 1014 71 28 0.01 540 529

MKG:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.9 -1.4 1017 86 97 0.02 553 540
THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.1 -0.2 1008 86 99 0.14 550 544
THU 18Z 20-DEC 2.3 0.1 998 93 100 0.37 542 544
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.9 0.4 989 97 100 0.48 532 540
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.1 -6.1 993 86 99 0.36 528 533
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.7 -8.0 1002 79 96 0.11 531 529
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.0 -9.0 1009 73 69 0.07 535 528
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.1 -9.6 1016 76 11 0.01 541 529

GRR:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.8 -0.6 1017 83 90 0.01 554 541
THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.8 1.0 1009 86 86 0.13 551 544
THU 18Z 20-DEC 2.2 1.0 998 94 84 0.46 545 546
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.7 2.8 987 98 88 0.33 531 542
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.8 -3.7 990 94 71 0.09 526 534
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.7 -8.9 1000 83 97 0.08 530 530
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.9 -8.7 1007 66 86 0.05 534 529
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -1.0 -9.8 1014 78 33 0.01 538 527

BTL:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 2.1 0.9 1017 83 62 0.01 556 542
THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.3 2.0 1008 83 92 0.08 553 546
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.9 2.6 997 91 55 0.47 546 548
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 6.8 1.3 988 94 57 0.20 531 541
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.0 -3.5 989 99 76 0.04 525 534
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.5 -8.3 999 83 98 0.10 529 530
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.7 -8.5 1006 68 93 0.07 533 529
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.8 -9.7 1013 76 41 0.01 538 528

MOP:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.0 -1.1 1012 82 92 0.07 551 541
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.7 -1.4 1001 95 97 0.33 546 545
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.6 0.5 991 98 97 0.34 535 542
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.3 -2.1 989 96 84 0.18 526 535
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -2.2 -7.3 997 81 95 0.10 528 531
FRI 18Z 21-DEC -1.0 -9.6 1004 71 93 0.03 532 529
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -1.9 -9.6 1011 77 65 0.01 536 527

PTK:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 1.9 1.1 1003 95 99 0.17 550 548
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 7.0 3.2 990 96 85 0.28 537 545
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.6 -5.1 989 91 90 0.07 525 534
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.2 -4.8 992 93 98 0.08 525 531
FRI 18Z 21-DEC -1.8 -9.3 1000 75 85 0.10 530 529
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -1.7 -10.1 1007 73 85 0.03 533 528
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -2.4 -8.7 1011 74 37 0.01 537 529

DTW:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.5 1.4 1003 89 100 0.18 551 549
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 7.9 3.5 991 94 86 0.31 537 545
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.9 -4.2 989 90 82 0.07 525 534
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.7 -4.9 992 91 98 0.07 525 531
FRI 18Z 21-DEC -0.7 -8.7 1000 72 93 0.07 529 529
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.5 -10.0 1007 69 88 0.02 533 528

DET:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.9 1.5 1004 84 100 0.12 551 548
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 7.7 3.3 991 93 87 0.36 538 545
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 2.5 -4.8 989 85 87 0.09 525 534
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 1.7 -4.4 990 95 98 0.06 524 532
FRI 18Z 21-DEC -0.8 -7.9 999 73 98 0.07 529 530
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.7 -9.9 1006 68 96 0.01 532 528
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -1.3 -8.8 1010 69 55 0.01 536 529

TDZ:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 5.6 2.7 1001 91 99 0.26 552 551
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 8.7 2.8 991 92 86 0.19 536 544
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.8 -4.2 990 94 95 0.06 526 534
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.6 -6.7 994 87 100 0.07 526 531
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.6 -9.0 1001 65 96 0.03 530 529
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.7 -9.6 1008 62 85 0.01 534 527

DAY:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 8.4 7.3 999 89 74 0.30 554 554
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 6.8 -1.1 995 86 54 0.14 537 541
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -0.6 -7.3 1000 78 98 0.03 532 532
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -1.1 -7.1 1002 78 97 0.05 531 529
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.3 -8.4 1007 67 94 0.05 534 528
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.0 -8.8 1013 69 62 0.03 538 528

CMH:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 8.6 3.9 1003 85 91 0.15 556 554
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 8.7 3.3 996 95 81 0.26 542 546
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.8 -7.3 999 73 99 0.08 532 533
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.9 -7.1 999 76 99 0.05 529 530
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.7 -7.7 1003 67 97 0.09 531 529
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 1.0 -8.4 1009 67 93 0.05 535 528
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -0.2 -9.7 1013 66 57 0.01 539 528

CLE:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 7.3 6.5 1003 65 97 0.03 555 552
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 7.8 3.6 995 90 57 0.23 545 549
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 2.9 -5.7 994 72 82 0.09 530 535
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 1.5 -4.7 992 88 97 0.04 525 532
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.1 -7.0 996 82 100 0.14 525 528
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.3 -9.5 1004 75 98 0.13 530 527
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -0.8 -10.3 1008 73 94 0.05 533 526
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -0.8 -10.0 1013 73 9 0.02 539 529

YKF:

FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.5 0.0 1001 95 97 0.20 547 546
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 4.2 1.0 993 95 98 0.23 534 539
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 1.0 -5.4 992 95 90 0.08 527 534
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 2.6 -5.0 991 74 98 0.03 525 533
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.0 -6.7 995 86 95 0.08 527 531
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -3.2 -10.4 999 79 96 0.04 528 529
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -3.9 -9.9 1004 76 85 0.06 532 529
SAT 18Z 22-DEC -3.0 -8.4 1008 72 22 0.01 534 528

YYZ:

FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.2 0.6 1003 81 98 0.10 549 546
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 4.3 0.9 995 90 96 0.24 536 540
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 3.4 -4.5 993 89 74 0.11 529 535
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 2.9 -4.6 991 82 99 0.03 525 533
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 1.7 -5.4 992 90 92 0.11 525 532
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -1.3 -9.6 996 79 97 0.10 526 529
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -2.1 -10.2 1001 77 87 0.13 529 528
SAT 18Z 22-DEC -2.0 -10.0 1006 70 21 0.04 532 527

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

After looking at all the new 00z data I'll still ride the 1-3" call for here and the QC. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few isolated higher amounts around with some of the banding taking place during the development of the 2nd deformation zone, but 1-3" should be the norm. This after 0.50-0.75" of rain with potentially even a few rumbles of thunder late Wed night/early Thu. Changeover to all snow in the QC looks to take place between 8-11am IMO. All this to be followed by 50-60mph wind gusts between 18z Thu and 03z Fri. Water and wet snow freezing on power lines during the temp plunge, combined with the high winds will probably lead to power outages around the area.

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