Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,863
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Malmax64
    Newest Member
    Malmax64
    Joined

December 20th-22nd Major Winter Storm Part II


andyhb

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The GFS has quite a heavy band of deformation snow JUST miss much of West Michigan. Ludington gets lucky and gets hit by it. If we can just get the stinking low to move a little more south and/or wrap colder air in quicker, we could definitely get some nice snow. While often the lows move more NW at the last minute, there are other times where a strong low can easily pull cold air from Canada into itself...and that is definitely a possibility. We shall see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/19/2012 at 4:53 AM, Thundersnow12 said:

And here we were less than 2 years ago thinking we'd never see winds like GHD supplied again...northeast IL thursday evening.

Nothing like 75kts at 900mb. Wow.

DVN mentioned gravity waves associated with the bombing cyclone the other day in an AFD. If some of these waves accompany any precip there's probably a pretty good chance there could be a few gusts topping 60mph. I think the best chance for this would be over northeast IL towards 00z at the height of the bombing process, and also where precip is still ongoing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/19/2012 at 4:58 AM, cyclone77 said:

Nothing like 75kts at 900mb. Wow.

DVN mentioned gravity waves associated with the bombing cyclone the other day in an AFD. If some of these waves accompany any precip there's probably a pretty good chance there could be a few gusts topping 60mph. I think the best chance for this would be over northeast IL towards 00z at the height of the bombing process, and also where precip is still ongoing.

The 12/15/87 storm had gravity waves galore which enhanced the winds, but it was an extreme case. Certainly something to keep a close eye on if we observe them developing in real-time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/19/2012 at 5:58 AM, hm8 said:

Euro looks like its gonna continue the slight slowing down trend

Track ends up very similar to 12z, but interestingly QPF is noticeably different. Gradient it much tighter SE-NW in WI. Wetter for IL to, bulls-eye of 1.75-2" in the NE corner IL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/19/2012 at 6:12 AM, Thundersnow12 said:

Looks like the Euro beefed up QPF some in the defo band over northeast IL thursday evening.

Yup. Gonna be close though on the change over. By 00z Friday, when the Euro has the biggest 6hr-QPF in the area, it shows the 850mb freezing line well passed but the surface still just above freezing. And of course that's where those isotherm lines are at the end of the 6hr period.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z ECMWF Text List

  Reveal hidden contents
Link to comment
Share on other sites

After looking at all the new 00z data I'll still ride the 1-3" call for here and the QC. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few isolated higher amounts around with some of the banding taking place during the development of the 2nd deformation zone, but 1-3" should be the norm. This after 0.50-0.75" of rain with potentially even a few rumbles of thunder late Wed night/early Thu. Changeover to all snow in the QC looks to take place between 8-11am IMO. All this to be followed by 50-60mph wind gusts between 18z Thu and 03z Fri. Water and wet snow freezing on power lines during the temp plunge, combined with the high winds will probably lead to power outages around the area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...