cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Local TV met giving in and backing down. Just posted on FB that the QC will only get 1-3". Pretty much what I was thinking earlier tonight. Still a slim chance we could do better than that if the secondary deform can get organized quick enough. Poor guy is getting raked over the coals by his "friends" now. What a bunch of douches. I'm a bit disappointed in trends today (starting with last night's Euro), but this will still be a fun event to watch unfold to be sure. It's definitely been fun tracking this beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The pretty colors were supposed to tell you the story. Some warming in the column under 675mb between 11-21z, but heavier precip rates should keep it as snow for the most part. Might have some mixy issues for a time. Decent amount of elevated CAPE and nice omega in the colum, including the snow growth zone...with TSSN potential. Ha I meant more to ask what each line/color represented since I'm on my phone and can't read any labels or legends ... If there are any. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The pretty colors were supposed to tell you the story. Some warming in the column under 675mb between 11-21z, but heavier precip rates should keep it as snow for the most part. Might have some mixy issues for a time. Decent amount of elevated CAPE and nice omega in the colum, including the snow growth zone...with TSSN potential. For who? Chicago area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Basically the NAM lays down 2 separate bands of major accumulations. The first one lines up from Omaha to La Crosse towards Green Bay. Then as the storm begins to bomb early Thu a new deform takes place over far eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. That then matures into a potent deformation band with heavy snows. For northern Illinois the evolution of this secondary deformation zone will be key. The quicker it evolves the more snow potential there is on the southern end of it. In graphical form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looking at the GFS on Accuweather's updates, looks like Milwaukee to Sheboygan gets pwned on the backside deformation zone, similar to the NAM. Maybe not quite as weenieish, but still a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS holds onto intense deformation band between Milwaukee and Chicago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Ha I meant more to ask what each line/color represented since I'm on my phone and can't read any labels or legends ... If there are any. Thanks lol, oh. Red/blue is omega (bullseye toward left middle). Tigher packed pink/yellow is snow growth zone (center of image good example). More horizonal yellow/greenish lines are temps. Unfortunately there is no legend, so that's the best I can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 For who? Chicago area? That was for Sheboygan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looking at the GFS on Accuweather's updates, looks like Milwaukee to Sheboygan gets pwned on the backside deformation zone, similar to the NAM. Maybe not quite as weenieish, but still a solid hit. GFS brought Northern Illinois back into the heavier snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 1.5-2.0" for LAF. GFS on the crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 1.5-2.0" for LAF. GFS on the crack. Hey it would be a tie with the QC lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 954 PM CST TUE DEC 18 2012 UPDATE DPROG/DT OF 00Z NAM SHOWS MODEL TRENDING SLOWER...STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH MAJOR STORM WED NGT-THU. THIS MAY HAVE IMPACTS ON SLOWING A BIT THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ESPECIALLY FROM QUAD CITIES S/E ON THU. IN ADDITION... PCPN MAY WELL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THU. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMS (8-12 INCHES) WILL OCCUR W/NW OF QUAD CITIES... ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH OF KCID-KDBQ AXIS. VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE WINDS... WITH LATEST NAM SHOWING A TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT OF ABOUT 26 MILLIBARS ACROSS THE STATE OF IA BY 18Z THU... WITH 925 MILLIBAR WINDS PROGGED AROUND 50 KTS. SHOULD SEE SFC WINDS SUSTAINED AT 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50+ MPH. 18Z GEFS WIND MAGNITUDE ANOMALIES FROM 1000-850 MILLIBARS ARE A WHOPPING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. BOTTOM LINE... IF THESE WINDS WERE TO VERIFY WE WOULD BE LOOKING POTENTIALLY AT A PARALYZING STORM. At least it's snow and not ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It's a cruel winter for MBY. Surrounded to the north, east, and south. NAM bozo below. Sexier 10:1 map here: http://wxcaster4.com...OWFALL_84HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looks like Windsor gets the short end of the stick. I see 0" accumulations on the GFS map above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS holds onto intense deformation band between Milwaukee and Chicago! Michigan is waving its big hand for that sucker to come on over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looking forward to watching obs out of Benton Harbor tomorrow night. Not sure how close the station is to the water but they have a chance to see really high winds as the low reaches its maximum depth and winds turn onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 It's a cruel winter for MBY. Surrounded to the north, east, and south. NAM bozo below. Sexier 10:1 map here: http://wxcaster4.com...OWFALL_84HR.gif Me too...me too....once again on the edge here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Skilling's map! RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 00z UKMET looks like it takes the low over Chicago (interpolating between 42-48 hour positions) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Skilling's map! RPM. Hole over LAF...Tim is gonna ride that like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Hole over LAF...Tim is gonna ride that like crazy. You better believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I don't know if I've ever seen 60kt 925mb winds in the CCB before around here. Not that I can remember anyway. The 60kt winds actually cover a pretty large area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 00z UKMET looks like it takes the low over Chicago (interpolating between 42-48 hour positions) GYY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Looking forward to watching obs out of Benton Harbor tomorrow night. Not sure how close the station is to the water but they have a chance to see really high winds as the low reaches its maximum depth and winds turn onshore. Any eastern shore Lake MI wind obs will be very interesting to watch during this event. Especially in the areas that see lake effect snow. Will be interesting to see how well lake effect/lake enhanced bands will be able to organize with strong flow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GYY Prove it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I don't know if I've ever seen 60kt 925mb winds in the CCB before around here. Not that I can remember anyway. The 60kt winds actually cover a pretty large area as well. Still an annoying discrepancy between the NAM/GFS in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Prove it Simple, draw a straight line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 From IWX on LES possibilities .LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE GOOD BUT NOTHING SPECTACULAR. 850MB DELTA T`S WILL BE AROUND 15C WITH MAX CONVECTIVE DEPTHS AROUND 10 KFT...AND ONLY FROM ROUGHLY 00Z-09Z. BANDS WILL ALSO HAVE DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING WITH 850MB WINDS AT 60+ KNOTS. SNOW RATIOS WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WITH MAX OMEGA LARGELY BELOW THE DGZ AND STRONG WINDS FRACTURING ANY POSSIBLE DENDRITES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS AND THE FACT THAT THE BEST LOW-MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION/FGEN AND TROWAL AXIS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA...EXPECT HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN NORTH/WEST OF HERE. EXPECT GENERALLY 2-5 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST FROM 00Z-18Z AND AN INCH OR LESS IN THE SOUTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Still an annoying discrepancy between the NAM/GFS in that regard. What's interesting is the NAM and GFS both show fairly similar gust potential on the instant-weather-map site. Both show similar 50-60mph surface gust potential. I'm guessing there's a good chance that we'll be losing power in this area Thursday afternoon. Water will likely freeze a bit on area trees/powerlines as temps crash. That combined with 50-60mph gusts for 6+hrs is gonna reek havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Not going to post the image here, because I'm not sure if it's free... Skilling posted spagetti plots of the CMC vs. NCEP models on his FB page. CMC centered over north INDY metro, NCEP going through LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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