cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 NAM will not back down. Think I may have had the order reversed in my Hulk Hogan pic yesterday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I don't know, I'm not seeing much difference between 18z and 00z NAM - position wise at least. 00z has stronger SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Always nerve wracking sitting on the modeled/forecasted SE side of the snow band. Sorta happy I don't have to worry about that with this one. Yep, and it wouldn't be shocking to see a northwest/warmer tick as we get closer given the negatively tilting wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yep, and it wouldn't be shocking to see a northwest/warmer tick as we get closer given the negatively tilting wave. Your probably not helping things...for those that are in that spot right now. Regardless, some act like the NAM took this thing over MSN with this run. It was worse to the left a day and a half ago. Sure there's always fringe changes as we get closer, always happens...but the general areas for the best snows that we've all outlined are still a go. Not that one run of the NAM should change things anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Always nerve wracking sitting on the modeled/forecasted SE side of the snow band. Sorta happy I don't have to worry about that with this one. Unfortunately, that is where Cedar Rapids is headed as each model run today is inching the line back into southeastern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 A wise forecaster named Gino said today it might be better to rely on the globals for a massive system like this rather than higher res models like the NAM and other WRFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Unfortunately, that is where Cedar Rapids is headed as each model run today is inching the line back into eastern Iowa. We've all been there. And it sucks. Hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised to see the NAM move it farther west in subsequent runs, unless this run is an outlier, which I doubt. We'll see what the Euro says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 A wise forecaster named Gino said today it might be better to rely on the globals for a massive system like this rather than higher res models like the NAM and other WRFs. Sounds like sage advice..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Might as well break down the latest though. MSN gets raked. 1.46" liquid equiv...99.99% snow. DLL...0.82", all snow. MKE...probably like 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Your probably not helping things...for those that are in that spot right now. Regardless, some act like the NAM took this thing over MSN with this run. It was worse to the left a day and a half ago. Sure there's always fringe changes as we get closer, always happens...but the general areas for the best snows that we've all outlined are still a go. Not that one run of the NAM should change things anyway. Of course, but a small change like 20 miles can make all the difference if you're near a sharp gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Unfortunately, that is where Cedar Rapids is headed as each model run today is inching the line back into southeastern Iowa. I thought you were a lock for the main defo band earlier. Still look real good but the rain/snow line edges a bit close tomorrow night from the looks of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Might as well break down the latest though. MSN gets raked. 1.46" liquid equiv...99.99% snow. DLL...0.82", all snow. MKE...probably like 3-4". We better see video of Turtlecane getting smashed outside in a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Low pressure centered over southern Utah, associated band of precipitation extending from the AZ/Mexico border to Utah. Still fairly weak and broad, but soon the right entrance of the jet streak will be in the lee of the Rockies and things will really get cooking. If that GFS forecast unfolds just wow. This is going to be an epic couple of days. Already have a slushy 1.4" on the ground here, been having intermittent freezing drizzle and the roads and sidewalks are a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 We better see video of Turtlecane getting smashed outside in a blizzard. I'm just west of Madtown - I will do my best to post some pics/vid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 A big FWIW here, but this is a graphical interpretation of the snow/mix line at the height of it's NW movement tomorrow night. According to this Cedar Rapids and Dubuque stay safe. EDIT: 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 i'll be having my Annual Low Party/dry SLUT party at my house this weekend, inbox me for more information... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Of course, but a small change like 20 miles can make all the difference if you're near a sharp gradient. Well yeah. I'm just playing optimist/sooth sayer for those on the line. Much easier I suppose when its not MBY. Like I said, it's not fun sitting there. I'll adopt CID. Extracted off the NAM is all good. 1.06" total liquid, maybe a brief start of some mix...but should be a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 SBM off the 0z NAM. Not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 No RGEM talk? B/W maps, but looks like 993mb over Quincy at 36 hrs...988mb between Lansing and Jackson at 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Basically the NAM lays down 2 separate bands of major accumulations. The first one lines up from Omaha to La Crosse towards Green Bay. Then as the storm begins to bomb early Thu a new deform takes place over far eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. That then matures into a potent deformation band with heavy snows. For northern Illinois the evolution of this secondary deformation zone will be key. The quicker it evolves the more snow potential there is on the southern end of it. That's what the GFS was trying to do on the last run. So many questions still! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 From the GRB AFD. ONE NEGATIVE THAT TURNED UP THIS EVENING. MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOWTO RETURN OFF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE GULF MONDAY...PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OFF TO THE SE. A SHALLOW RETURN FLOW IS NOW STARTING WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE 50S F ACRS SE TX...BUT 850 MB AND 925 MB MIXING RATIOS AND PWATS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW. THE START OF THE SNOWS STILL ABOUT 30 HOURS AWAY...SO JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Well yeah. I'm just playing optimist/sooth sayer for those on the line. Much easier I suppose when its not MBY. Like I said, it's not fun sitting there. I'll adopt CID. Extracted off the NAM is all good. 1.06" total liquid, maybe a brief start of some mix...but should be a good hit. Table scraps for us. Maybe we can get the Christmas storm to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 SBM off the 0z NAM. Not bad... Mind explaining that a bit? Bit of a cluster**** of lines and colors when I don't know what I'm looking for lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Table scraps for us. Maybe we can get the Christmas storm to produce. A few flakes whipping about will be nice. We'll hope for the best with next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Local TV met giving in and backing down. Just posted on FB that the QC will only get 1-3". Pretty much what I was thinking earlier tonight. Still a slim chance we could do better than that if the secondary deform can get organized quick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 MT saukville elevation is only 8500' ...but i'm guessing all snow at that level Inch and a half precip for Madtown? Might as well close down the city now. I remember years back when they had all that snow. Could barely see to get through any of the intersections...and don't even think about getting 2 cars down some of those streets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 No RGEM talk? B/W maps, but looks like 993mb over Quincy at 36 hrs...988mb between Lansing and Jackson at 48 hrs. 2 high res models, one West one East. I would trust the RGEM over the NAM any day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Mind explaining that a bit? Bit of a cluster**** of lines and colors when I don't know what I'm looking for lol The pretty colors were supposed to tell you the story. Some warming in the column under 675mb between 11-21z, but heavier precip rates should keep it as snow for the most part. Might have some mixy issues for a time. Decent amount of elevated CAPE and nice omega in the colum, including the snow growth zone...with TSSN potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 From the GRB AFD. I wonder how long they would think it would take typically to improve on the gulf moisture situation. It would be unfortunate if something this simple ended up changing the game dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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