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Can we salvage a White Christmas in SNE?


Damage In Tolland

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Well if you are looking for positives aside from the 12z GFS suite...18z NAM and SREfs are pretty far south with the ULL at the end of their runs...pretty far out for those models, but who knows. Better than showing it up in Montreal.

I think its pretty much a lock that most people see some flakes falling this weekend at one time or another, and thats better than nothing.

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Worst weather pattern ever? Mild damp and foggy...ho f'ing ho.

18z GFS nudged back north towards the other models. Epic snow flurries this weekend.

18z GFS would still be some semi-organized snow over SNE...its not quite as good as 12z, but plenty good enough for widespread snow showers and maybe even some steadier bands mixed in. It prints out between a tenth and 0.15" of qpf while that ULL goes overhead.

I'd want to see the Euro come south a bit though before getting any hopes up for something.

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i do seriously think that's coming. i could very well be wrong of course and as eduggdouches so adeptly pointed out the other day, long range stuff is not my strength.

but i think the axis is shifting east and the antecedent air masses will be far improved so even cutters will be different going forward than what we've seen in the last two to three weeks...by that i mean there should be better chances for front end snows and perhaps secondary genesis south of NE.

Stick to the analysis and arguments, not the name calling.

Why is this anything more than speculation; guessing?

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i do seriously think that's coming. i could very well be wrong of course and as eduggdouches so adeptly pointed out the other day, long range stuff is not my strength.

but i think the axis is shifting east and the antecedent air masses will be far improved so even cutters will be different going forward than what we've seen in the last two to three weeks...by that i mean there should be better chances for front end snows and perhaps secondary genesis south of NE.

How many times have you expressed a similar sentiment this year? What makes this time any different? The best argument I can see right now is that climo is steadily moving in our favor. I hope there will be a stronger case to be made in the coming days.

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Meh, if it doesn't work out, it's more normal not to so everyone would have to nod to things being what they should be. If you live up N you may have more room to complain based on averages -

white_christmas_320v2.jpeg?w=470&h=361

Looks right...I expect a white Xmas and will probably have it. Still 3" of snow on the ground with like an inch plus of QPF that'll freeze into a block of ice. Snow to rain Friday and then CT Blizz style days and days of snow from NW flow this weekend till Xmas :)

I still think someone gets lucky with some LE leftovers east of the Berks...plus upslope regions down to Litchfield County.

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How many times have you expressed a similar sentiment this year? What makes this time any different? The best argument I can see right now is that climo is steadily moving in our favor. I hope there will be a stronger case to be made in the coming days.

I don't think I've expressed this particular sentiment yet

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240 hr gfs...flooding rains lol. Whether we get a white Christmas or not this run wipes it away in style.

That's the one that ultimately changes things for the first week of January. The thing is I don't know how long it lasts and am not sold it goes on and on vs we just get more real shots.

But only 2 more of these to go through....

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12z and 00z CMC runs showed an arctic frontal passage possible for the day of Christmas or day after Christmas timeframe. I'm liking the CMC more than the EURO, as GFS heads towards it along the GOM. THis is multi faceted storm system and could bring blizzard conditions to someone.

I think as for track, it tracks out of the GOM into the eastern GL transfers energy to off the VA Capes and hits the BM track heading NEward.

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That's the one that ultimately changes things for the first week of January. The thing is I don't know how long it lasts and am not sold it goes on and on vs we just get more real shots.

But only 2 more of these to go through....

Yikes-we're now looking at early Jan for the change---just keeps getting further and further out--soon the lawn thread will be up!

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Yikes-we're now looking at early Jan for the change---just keeps getting further and further out--soon the lawn thread will be up!

That's my take on it, many others thing it comes in a few days/week. I think we'll probably have to clear that 2nd storm although if there's one that may flip colder as the atmosphere changes it's that one.

Seems some folks have not lived in SNE very long. The late 90s were not that long ago. But if you believe model progs we flip the switch.

I'll come shovel your driveway into those neat postcard etched snowbanks that Kevin likes while singing "Winter Wonderland" and "Sleigh Ride" if it snows between now and 1/1 if it flips before then. January should be a different story, probably right from the getgo.

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